RADIO
Each week, I'll take a look at how NFL rookies are performing from a dynasty fantasy football perspective. We're already on to Week 10!
Whether or not your dynasty team is competing for a title this year, you should always be thinking about the future. One thing that can affect a player's dynasty value -- not to mention their on-field performance -- is the presence or absence of teammates. With that in mind, let's take a look at contract situations for 2018.
At this point of the season, there are a number of rookies who've had big roles and look like they have sure roles next year. We'll set those aside. Instead, let's focus on rookies that haven't had a big impact yet. Perhaps it's because of injury, perhaps it's because of the depth chart in front of them. For whatever reason, we don't have much on-field performance to judge them by. Instead, let's see if we can get an idea of whether or not they'll have a better chance to contribute next year. For the record, I'm not speculating that these players will be released, just saying that there are no contractual reasons for the team to keep them, so there's no financial obstacle to the rookie earning a bigger role next year.
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Dynasty Buy and Sell for Next Season
Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)
The Panthers already traded Kelvin Benjamin. An additional four of the Panthers fringe wide receivers are also free agents. The team could release Russell Shepard with a very small cap hit. To top it off, Greg Olsen and Devin Funchess are entering the final years of their contracts. Samuel was a reasonably high draft pick and given the wide-open nature of Carolina's receiving corps next year, it's a good bet that Samuel gets a lot of opportunities. Given his low key stats this year, that makes Samuel a player to monitor or try to acquire on the cheap.
Mike Williams (WR, SD)
The Chargers rookie wide receiver has finally returned from injury but hasn't done much. Things look much better for next year. Keenan Allen will still be there of course, but Tyrell Williams and Antonio Gates are both free agents. In addition, Travis Benjamin could be released with a modest cap hit.
John Ross (WR, CIN)
Like Williams, Ross has struggled with injury. But the Bengals WR corps could return intact next year. Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd are both under contract. On the other hand, both could be cut with no (LaFell) or a very small (Boyd) cap hit. It's also true that neither has been very impressive on the field this year (Boyd has also missed time). Ross' draft pedigree means he should get a full opportunity to play a lot of snaps next year, and given the cheap contracts and underwhelming performance of his competition, I'm not worried about their presence. If you can get Ross at a discount to his initial rookie draft price, I think that's a good move for next year.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Third verse, same as the first. Davis has also struggled with injuries and also represents a lot of draft capital. His 2018 outlook is helped by the fact that Eric Decker is a free agent. There's probably no discount on him, but if you can acquire him, I'd look into it. Perhaps a competing team will move him for a veteran that is playing well right now.
O.J. Howard (TE, TB)
Howard has had some big plays but no consistent impact. Things are wide open for him next year though, as Cameron Brate is a free agent. Brate is an underrated tight end, and rookies at the position usually take time to develop, so don't read too much into Howard's low impact rookie campaign. He's a solid acquisition target.
Zay Jones (WR, BUF)
I loved him as a prospect and he's been getting reams of opportunity; he just hasn't been able to convert much. Then the Bills brought in Kelvin Benjamin. That's probably reduced the price to acquire Jones, which I'd be looking to do. For starters, Jordan Matthews and Deonte Thompson are both free agents, and there's no guarantee either returns. Kelvin Benjamin is under contract but could be released with no cap hit at all. On the one hand, there's a chance that both Matthews and Benjamin are retained, in which case Jones would be fighting for meaningful work. On the other hand, one or both could leave, giving Jones another crack at a huge workload. Try to take advantage of the uncertainty and add him at a reasonable cost.
Jamaal Williams (RB, GB)
The Packers RB started the season ahead of Aaron Jones, but Jones has since made a strong case to be the team's top back. Both Jones and Ty Montgomery return next year. Stock down on Williams.
D'Onta Foreman (RB, HOU)
Foreman has had some decent workloads and Alfred Blue is a free agent. That opens up more opportunity for Foreman, who would be a great asset if something happens to Lamar Miller. I like him as a cheap add with potential standalone value and huge upside if Miller goes down.
Joe Williams (RB, SF)
From the penthouse (his coach "banged the table" to draft him) to the outhouse (okay, injured reserve), Williams value has plummeted. But here's the thing. Matt Breida is just a guy with not much of a contract, and Carlos Hyde is a free agent. If Hyde departs, he vacates one of the biggest combined rushing/receiving workloads in the league, and Williams would have a great chance to earn it. Buy!
Kenny Golladay (WR, DET)
Another injury-plagued rookie WR. His situation is a bit murkier. Both Marvin Jones and Golden Tate return, although T.J. Jones is likely gone as a free agent. The Lions are also top-10 in pass attempts and that means there should be work for Golladay. It's just not clear how much. He's a hold but I wouldn't overpay.
James Conner (RB, PIT)
I'm not a big fan of handcuffs but there's a chance, however small, that Le'Veon Bell leaves Pittsburgh. He's a free agent and it's unlikely that the team franchise tags him again. If he did leave, the Steelers would probably bring in competition, but Conner could get a chance to compete for a gig.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
The Buccaneers rookie made some noise in training camp but has had a quiet season. He has a chance to showcase his skills this week with Mike Evans suspended, so dynasty owners should monitor his performance closely. Adam Humphries is a free agent, so Godwin could be in line for more work next year regardless. He'll still be behind DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans though, so he'll need to be productive at some point to earn snaps.
Ardarius Stewart (WR, NYJ)
He's appeared in nine games with one start so far, but hasn't made much noise. The fact that he's been seeing regular action is a good thing for a mid-round pick, and the Jets top three WR are all potentially gone. Quincy Enunwa (injured) and Jeremy Kerley (suspended) are free agents, and Jermaine Kearse is droppable with no cap impact. The Jets have no clarity at quarterback and have needs all over the place, so it's not clear how much to hope for from Stewart, but he should be nearly free with some potential upside.
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Both Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls are free agents. C.J. Prosise is still around and Seattle will likely bring in more RBs, but Carson showed well when he was healthy and could be a cheap stash with a potentially big workload next year. It's best to avoid this backfield altogether until they improve the offensive line further, but Carson did show promise in his brief time on the field.
