Dynasty Tiered Rankings and Analysis - Running Backs

May 21, 2021

Tiered rankings and analysis for dynasty league running backs. Pierre Camus breaks down RotoBaller's RB ranks for 2021 dynasty and keeper fantasy football leagues.

This time last year, Josh Jacobs was ranked eighth, Derrius Guice was 20 spots ahead of Antonio Gibson, and James Robinson checked in at 126th among our dynasty running back rankings. Things change quickly in the Not For Long league.

One thing that will never change is our constant quest to bring you the latest and greatest fantasy football advice year-round. That means breaking down dynasty rankings at each position far in advance of the NFL season.

Let's begin with everyone's favorite position - running back. Below you'll find RotoBaller's consensus dynasty RB rankings for fantasy football following the 2021 NFL Draft. These will be updated throughout the preseason so bookmark our NFL rankings page for the latest moves.

Dynasty RB Rankings

Top Tier Analysis

Not much change in the first tier from 2020, even though many fantasy teams had drastically different fortunes based on which RB they were tied to. CMC and Barkley had lost seasons but remain firmly in the top-three with Dalvin Cook jumping into the No. 2 spot after proving he could handle a huge workload.

The biggest point of contention is Jonathan Taylor at four with Alvin Kamara, arguably the reigning fantasy MVP, slotting in fifth. Taylor (22) obviously has the youth edge with a full three years on Kamara (25). Kamara owns a 5.0 yards per carry average but his bread and butter is as a receiver, averaging 5.4 receptions per game. But that was with Drew Brees at QB. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer but one who developed into a dump-off artist late in his career, finishing in the bottom-five in aDoT last year. We don't really know what the offense will look like going forward.

Taylor also averaged 5.0 yards per carry as a rookie but a 253-yard outburst in Week 17 against the worst team in the league, Jacksonville, skewed that figure. Taylor only averaged 2.4 receptions per game and Nyheim Hines is there to share pass-catching work. It's a close call in redraft but Taylor's youth ultimately makes the difference.

Where does Ezekiel Elliott rightfully belong? At 25, he's the same age roughly as Kamara but with a bit more tread on the tires. Last year was disappointing but that can be attributed to the lack of Dak. Normally you'd think a QB's absence would hurt the receivers but not the running back; in fact, it might boost an RB's numbers due to increased volume. Not in this case.

It's understandable that Zeke might not rank in tier one any longer but I personally have him above Najee Harris and Derrick Henry. He is still a three-down back, as Tony Pollard is not a legit threat to his workload so much as a change-of-pace guy.

Running Backs Who Are Trending Down

Todd Gurley seems too obvious... so let's start with Joe Mixon, who drops from as high as sixth in last year's preseason ranks to 16. He played just six games last year but it wasn't a serious injury like an Achilles tear. Frustratingly, Mixon's foot injury promised to keep him out a few weeks but never healed enough for him to return. Once Joe Burrow tore his ACL and the team was staring at a 2-7-1 record, there wasn't much point pushing Mixon to play anyway.

The team invested in him prior to last season with a four-year deal and added no competition to the RB room other than sixth-round pick Chris Evans while letting veteran Giovani Bernard walk in free agency. Everything points to Mixon being one of the few undisputed workhorse backs in the NFL. He will be 25 when the season begins and the Bengals' offensive outlook is pointing up, so he could very well jump back into the top 10. If he can't make it through a full season healthy, his stock may keep plunging.

Leonard Fournette was a draft bust in 2020, no two ways about it. From Weeks 1-14, he totaled 442 scrimmage yards and three TD. A third of those yards and two of the scores came in Week 2 alone. After being cast aside by most, he did the most infuriating thing ever and scored three times in the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs while Ronald Jones, who had developed into a fantasy RB2, was on the COVID list. Uncle Lenny then went on a binge in the NFL playoffs casting doubt on how this backfield will play out.

Adding Giovani Bernard to steal receiving work out of the backfield doesn't help. Even though recency bias will favor Fournette based on how the season ended, this is a committee to avoid and Fournette's days as a feature back are over no matter where he plays.

Neither Devin Singletary nor Zack Moss showed they could be fantasy relevant despite Buffalo's thriving offense. The Bills were bottom-10 in total rush attempts and Josh Allen runs the ball just as much as the backs. Singletary and Moss combined for six rushing touchdowns, Allen had eight. He was just 10 attempts and 60 rushing yards behind Moss. They didn't draft Moss to be the guy; Allen's everything in that offense right now.

Where The Top Rookies Rank

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers - RB8

We know the workload will be there and he was head-and-shoulders above the rest of the rookie runners in this class. The offensive line is very questionable though and Big Ben has one year left before the franchise will look for a new QB for the first time since 2004. His immediate value isn't in question but 2022 is looking murky.

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars - RB18

Is he a running back or wide receiver? The fact that Urban Meyer is having him run routes in rookie minicamp says more about the coach than the player. We shouldn't read too much into it yet, although there is a hint of nervousness among the dynasty crowd that James Robinson could have a bigger role than suspected after the Jags spent a first-round pick on a running back. Etienne is in an odd place right now in that his college production, draft capital, and team context scream RB1 but his usage may not match.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos - RB21

Another disappointing landing spot puts Williams outside the top-20 dynasty backs. Would we be surprised if he usurps Melvin Gordon and jumps into the top-10 by 2022? Not at all. Would we be shocked if he doesn't develop into a complete NFL back and slides outside the top-25? Nope.

Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers - RB27

How many touches will Sermon get in his rookie season? If you answered "I have no clue," you are not alone. On one hand, the team moved up a round to acquire him in round three which means they coveted the specific player. On the other hand, they also drafted Elijah Mitchell, signed Wayne Gallman, and have holdovers Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. The ultimate risk-reward pick in rookie drafts, Sermon is worth a gamble based on the weakness of this RB group.

Michael Carter, New York Jets - RB28

If the Jets had spent a second-round pick on a running back, that player would hold much more value. Had Carter been drafted anywhere else before round four, the same would apply. Fourth-rounders and beyond are hard-pressed to make an impact, as we learned last year from guys like Joshua Kelley and Anthony McFarland Jr. Both had golden opportunities to seize the backfield but couldn't do so. The previous year brought gems like Benny Snell, Justice Hill, and Bryce Love. Before that, Ito Smith, Kalen Ballage, and Mark Walton. Only pass-catching specialists like Nyheim Hines and Chase Edmonds have recently been able to carve out roles in an offense. That's not Carter's specialty, nor is breakaway speed as his 4.59 40 time attests to. I don't recommend overvaluing him based on the touches available in the Jets backfield.

Value Alert

It's tough to find an up-and-coming player who isn't already rostered in dynasty leagues that can be easily acquired through the trade market. These RBs may be somewhat undervalued heading into the 2021 season, however, if circumstances allow them to shine.

A.J. Dillon might fit well in the trending down section because he was vastly overvalued heading into his rookie year and then sat on the bench behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. His impressive Speed Score at the NFL Combine wooed many into selecting him too early in rookie drafts. We should know better.

At 247 lbs, RB AJ Dillon (@BCFootball) runs a 4.53u 40-yard dash. @ajdillon7

?: #NFLCombine on @NFLNetwork
?: https://t.co/vDFxxNddNZ pic.twitter.com/LwNCaPNjes

— NFL (@NFL) February 29, 2020

Here's the good news - Williams is gone and the team only replaced him with seventh-round pick Kylin Hill, who is primarily a pass-catcher. If Aaron Jones gets banged up then Dillon will become the hottest waiver wire pickup in redraft leagues and has a chance to ascend to RB1 status. He may not catch many passes but neither does Derrick Henry, who happens to share the same weight as Dillon.

Kenny Gainwell isn't meant to be a replacement for Miles Sanders but he could play 1B to Sanders' 1A role. Sanders can take it to the house at any moment but also gets stuffed his fair share. The Eagles must be getting tired of the Corey Clement/Jordan Howard combo in their RB room (aren't we all?) so they spent a fifth-round pick on Gainwell and then added recently-released Kerryon Johnson. Gainwell isn't likely to see heavy volume but he could be a better version of Boston Scott, which we know has value in the right situation.

Remember when the Seahawks spent a first-round pick on Rashaad Penny and fantasy GMs were ready to kick Chris Carson to the curb? The team didn't pick up the fifth-year option on Penny, meaning he will be a free agent after the 2021 season. That's usually not a good sign for long-term value but Penny's case is different because his problem has been injury rather than underperformance. Penny averages 5.1 yards per carry in his career, including 5.7 Y/A in his last almost-full season in 2019 where he managed to string together 10 games. He's got the motivation to prove to the Seahawks, and every other NFL team he's auditioning for, that he can be a useful part of the backfield. He's great late-round best-ball pick and Zero RB target but also the quintessential buy-low target in dynasty at 25 years of age with just 161 carries under his belt. If there's one benefit to being constantly injured, it keeps a guy from getting worn down.

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