X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - Butterfield Bermuda Championship Daily Fantasy Golf Advice (2022)

DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks daily fantasy golf

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy. 

Thanks again for all the support, and don't miss out on all our top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles produced by the entire RotoBaller squad. 

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Butterfield Bermuda Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

 

Port Royal Golf Course

6,828 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bermuda

Ranking as the second shortest venue on the PGA Tour (behind only Pebble Beach), Port Royal Golf Course is positioned on the Atlantic Ocean coastline and experiences a lot of the volatility you might expect because of the weather. I am not going to get overly concerned with pinpointing specific tee times because of the erratic nature of wind when you play near water, meaning I'd prefer to weigh that category a single time in my model and go in with the mindset that you will always have to deal with steady breezes on a coastal course.

It should go without saying that the track plays straightforward with its 6,828-yard measurement, but the layout of the land provides a unique contextual experience when we look at the distribution of the yardage. Most of the hidden distance is baked into three of the four par-threes that range between 213 to 235 yards, and the group will rank as your three most challenging stops daily because of their 26.1% to 32.5% bogey or worse rate. The dispersion of historical finishes for top-10 producers over the past three seasons has shown that the par threes are the most impactful range to finding high-end success, but that does flip when looking at just cut-makers, suggesting earning shots on the par-fours or fives will be most crucial in making the cut, while being able to separate from the pack on par threes will give golfers the push they need to compete for the title.

Ten of the 11 par-fours play under 450 yards, but it is questionable not to include the sole outlier in the 400-450 yard range since it just misses the section at 458. The three par-fives are extremely gettable at 507, 517 and 533, and the par-five seventh accounted for 17% of DK points in 2019, allowing 242 birdies to go along with 25 eagles. If you aren't scoring on these three holes, your weekend will probably get cut short, and despite having one less than your standard Par 72, I am always going to weigh the category when we are talking about eagle rates ranging between 1.2 to 4.1%.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Port Royal Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 282
Driving Accuracy 52% 62%
GIR Percentage 64% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 59% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.56 0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

SG: Total Wind (15%)
SG: Total Short Courses (12.5%)
SG: Total Slow Bermuda (10%)
Weighted Par-Three (17.5%)
Weighted Par-Four (12.5%)
Par-Five BoB (10%)
Ball Striking (22.5%)


I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group:

Thomas Detry ($10,500) - I'd have to imagine we aren't to see anyone get overly popular near the top of the board since it seems complicated to find a golfer that is head and shoulders above the field, but my general thought process this week will be to try and avoid any ownership pitfall mistakes. That means decisions at this point of the week are more affected by the uncertainty of the public than by the weather at the course, and I will cautiously maneuver through the next few days before sticking my flag in any area.

The early returns of Thomas Detry being sub-13 percent and the number one golfer on my board is somewhat appealing from a game theory sense, but I still would like that ownership to dip since we have a cluttered board with most of the value names between Detry and Patrick Rodgers looking very similar. The Belgian golfer ranks inside the top 15 of this field in seven of the eight metrics that I looked into for the Bermuda Championship, but the par-five scoring of 87th does present concerns since the ability to produce on those holes has been the number one statistical datapoint for likelihood to make the weekend. Between the chaos of the wind for the field and the potential inability to score on the critical holes, we will need more information before making a decision on Detry.

Denny McCarthy ($10,400) - I put Denny McCarthy into the consideration pile because he does warrant cash-game discussion, but I will be out in GPPs at his current ownership mark.

Numbers aside, I do think the American brings the best combination of current form and long-term metrics to the table for anyone teeing it up at Port Royal, but McCarthy reminds me of a glorified Adam Hadwin in the eyes of the public, giving us a golfer where the ceiling is lower than their perception, but the floor should still be good for a top 30 finish. That would be fine if we were taking a shot on him at $8,000, but the $10,400 mark enters us into new territory, and I am fine going into the week with the mindset that any finish outside the top five doesn't return proper value for his going rate. I believe he is arguably the safest option in this section, but I like upside in GPP contests, and I am willing to take a stance against him producing anything that warrants the price tag. 

Adrian Meronk ($10,300) - Of everyone we have talked about in the first three names, Adrian Meronk is the most appealing to me if he enters the Bermuda Championship at sub-five percent. I don't have enough data on my end to take a firm stance one way or another on what we are getting here for the 61st-ranked player in the world, but the difference between a potential 10th-place finish for Meronk from Denny McCarthy is that the leverage we create by getting it with the Polish golfer is a natural separator between our builds and other lineups.

None of that suggests I am 100% going that route on Monday afternoon since a percent here and there will make a big difference when I naturally have better data on a player like Aaron Rai at just a few percentage points higher, but consider this one of those blind leverage chances where the long-term form of the golfer will exceed the metrics I have on record.

Seamus Power ($10,200) - I spent much of the CJ Cup finding routes to fade Seamus Power, and while I still like the upside if the ownership remains low enough for the week, the ball-striking returns have gone south over the past few months.

Power lost a horrendous 7.4 strokes to the field with his irons at Congaree, providing the sixth straight start where he has failed to gain strokes with his approach game, but if enough people in the space take a similar stance of him not being able to return value, I am willing to deviate from my opinion and bet on the long-term upside since the numbers will love him on a short course. Let's see if we can get this closer to seven percent than his current mark of over 11, but I still think there is too much volatility currently. 

Aaron Rai ($10,100) - If Adrian Meronk isn't the best pivot in the $10,000+ section, it likely will go to Aaron Rai. My numbers believe he is a top-10 golfer in this field, which we see with him generating the top-ranked output in my model when combining total driving + GIR percentage. As always, it will come down to how he handles his irons for the week, but his ability to find success on the par-three holes from this extended distance is enough for me to lean toward him over any golfer in this section. Some of the limited data in my model will make running numbers more challenging on specific players, but if we are looking at golfers $8,000 or above to place in the top 10 for weighted par-three scoring, we get options such as Alex Smalley, Austin Eckroat, Aaron Rai, Thomas Detry and Patrick Rodgers. It is worth noting that our next choice just missed the cutoff by one spot. 

Mark Hubbard ($10,000) - If you have followed my articles over the fall, you will know Mark Hubbard is a golfer I always tend to like over public expectation. The American ranks number one in this field for strokes gained tee-to-green over the past 24 rounds, and his top-25 baseline for putting will only add to the intrigue. Add that to the fact that he is among only two golfers to rank in the top 30 for every category this week, and we have an interesting profile to consider, even if he goes off the board as one of the popular selections.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Alex Smalley ($9,500) - Alex Smalley was my first click in the outright section, and we finally get a venue for him that diminishes par-five importance and enhances his top-ranked ball-striking returns. I feel like I have been beating this drum for weeks now that the first time Smalley draws either a Par 70 layout or a track with reduced expectation in par-five scoring that we were going to attack, and that moment seems to be here for the surging American.

Keeping in mind that I am dealing with limited data on most of these golfers, Smalley joins Thomas Detry, Michael Gligic, Erik Van Rooyen, Austin Smotherman and Kevin Yu as the only players in this field to place inside the top 15 for total driving and weighted proximity, and his less than 10 percent ownership return on Monday has me excited about his upside.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Adam Long ($8,900) - When comparing most of these names to their counterparts, we can get similar value in the $7,000s, but I do like the GPP upside Adam Long presents at reasonable ownership.

Like Alex Smalley, Long has a similar profile that enhances his win equity when we remove par-five scoring importance, and the 13-spot increase in weighted proximity here versus a random track is a nice boost for a golfer that ranks top-six in wind production and par-four scoring to mimic Port Royal.

Erik Van Rooyen ($8,000) - I don't necessarily trust Erik Van Rooyen over four days of golf, but the price tag is too cheap at $8,000 for his talent, and if the popularity doesn't want to correct itself over the next few days, I will be a buyer at these numbers.

Van Rooyen is one of the top ball-strikers in this field, and the data on slow Bermuda has been solid, ranking inside the top 30 over his past 50 rounds on the surface.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top-60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.

*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.

We need to be careful about trusting some of the short-term data on a few of these players, but that will be the initial condensed list of $7,000 golfers that I am diving deeper into over the next few days.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.

It is a hard section to love, but Scott Brown, Camilo Villegas and Andrew Novak were the names that looked most appealing to me at an early glance.

 

Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:

$10,000 - Aaron Rai ($10,100) 
$9,000 - Alex Smalley ($9,500)
$8,000 - Adam Long ($8,900)
$7,000 - Tyler Duncan ($7,400)
$6,000 - TBD

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF