RADIO
I hope you enjoyed the beach last Saturday because that was the last one you'll have that doesn't feature a UFC event until we hit Sep. 4th and enter another two-week hiatus after that. The schedule is packed with three non-numbered events building up toward UFC 266 on September 25th when we'll leave the Apex for the T-Mobile Arena, both in Las Vegas.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This weekend we'll get to watch no. 3 MW Jared Cannonier trying to stay on the path to a title facing no. 9 and former-title-fight-loser Kelvin Gastelum looking to right his 1-4 (wrong) record since the day he fell to champ Adesanya. That'd close the night, but the opener of the main card will also be delightful: two top-6 FW fighters fighting each other and looking for ascending to the last echelon before getting as close as it gets to the belt: Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval. Get ready, because this Saturday looks fantastic.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 34: Cannonier vs. Gastelum on 08/21/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jared Cannonier, $9400 - vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Is this the chalkiest fight ever booked by the UFC? Probably not, but it might be up there given these two's recent runs of results. While Cannonier started his tenure in the promo in a rather ugly way (1-4 kicking it off) he got it all right starting in 2018 and putting together a 3-1 record with three KOs and only getting stopped last time out by Whittaker. Gastelum, on the other hand... 7-2 at first, but 1-4 since he dropped his lone title fight against reigning champ Israel Adesanya, a loss he seems to have not recovered at all.
Cannonier surely looks like a kill-or-get-killed fighter. He'd either finish Gastelum, or fall KO'd himself. Obviously, the odds are Jared is the one dropping the Bomb O'Grace on Gastelum. Kelvin last KO-win came back in Nov. 2011, so it's not that he comes with massive fight-finishing upside. Gastelum, at the top of his powers, is a rounded striking-plus-grappling fighter, but he looks more on the wrong side of his career these days than on the right one. Forget about getting tasty FPs coming via grappling on Cannonier's stat line, though. There isn't a large enough sample to measure JC, and that might worry you, but he's just so neat at finishing foes that he's the play to go with on this one.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Clay Guida, $7100 - vs. Mark Madsen
Are we sure Mark Madsen was alive when Clay Guida started to do it? I'm not sure, folks. See, Guida is a 15-year pro (in the UFC, that is) who was fantastic up to the start of 2011 (10 years ago, just in case) but then proceeded to put up dud after dud. That's why he's amassed a 6-9 record since then and is only 1-3 since the start of 2018, carrying a two-fight losing streak entering Sunday. Madsen, on the other hand, has all of two fights in the UFC, both of then ending with resounding Ws under his name. 1:12 KO in the debut, decision win in the second outing attempting 12 TDs and succeeding 8 of those times.
Madsen, truth be told, couldn't have looked any better in his first couple of bouts. The debut-KO saw him land 22-of-29 SS and 1-of-2 takedowns, and the second was just a masterclass on taking people down to the mat over a 15-minute exhibition. Guida has been an afterthought for a long time now, and although he's known for his grappling game he's far from a TD machine these days. The volume isn't there, the accuracy isn't there, and the submissions and KOs are going against him too often for me to considering rostering the vet. Bank on Madsen; not much more to say about this (also chalky) fight.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Chase Sherman, $9200 - vs. Parker Porter
Although not entirely similar to the Guida-Madsen affair (read above), this fight also pits a "vet" and a "newcomer" against each other. Sherman fought in the UFC for the first time in 2016 but he's been great at all. He's just 3-6 and fighting for his life. More worryingly, he's eaten three KOs already (while inflicting two, that's also true). Parker Porter, he of the two UFC fights, dropped his first one after getting KO'd in 4:28 minutes, to later rebound with a decision win last November landing 126 SS and 2 TDs after going for four of them and throwing a healthy 228 SS toward his opponent.
Sherman is quite active for a heavyweight. He's attempted 143 SS per fight even though half of those didn't even reach the third round, and the land rates are quite nice too at almost 50%. Porter's sample is minuscule but he did it all his last time out in terms of both striking volume and grappling prowess. But I have to say, I'd bet on Sherman getting back to the W column via KO given Porter's past and the fact that Chase got two of his last three wins knocking out the men in front of him.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Vinc Pichel, $8200 - vs. Austin Hubbard
Pichel has been an absolute menace since he entered the UFC circuit. He fought a couple of times back in 2014 (two wins), then stayed out three years, and he seemingly lost no mojo in that span going 4-1 in his last five spanning from Jun. 2017 to Aug. 2020. Hubbard has six fights in his resume, all of them taking place from May 2019 on. He's yet to string either two wins or two losses, alternating Ws and Ls ever since his first time out.
While Hubbard has shown some abilities at taking folks down, it's Pichel who comes with the much greater upside on that front. He's a career 23-of-38 fighter on TDs and he also uses some relatively nice striking to his benefit. Hubbard can be labeled as a striker, full stop. If only because of the bonus value that takedowns carry with them, this looks like Pichel's fight to lose. He's the favorite and should snatch his third win in a row come Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexandre Pantoja, $8900 - vs. Brandon Royval
Fight for title contention? I'm in! Pantoja and Royval are building their resumes toward a potential title fight against reigning champ Brandon Moreno. Royval is obviously going to have a tough time getting there, and even if he does he'll have to fight the man that was able to defeat him for the first time since he entered the UFC back in Nov. 2020. Pantoja has been on the low of late, with a 2-2 record since the start of 2019 and a more recent 1-2 negative outcome in his last three.
Truth be told, though, Pantoja scored himself three first-round wins (two KOs, one sub) in his past five bouts--no joke, those results--while conceding just two Ls in respective judges' decisions. Royval himself subbed his first two foes inside the second round of those fights both times. These two can clearly do it on the grappling side of the game, and when it comes to striking it's clearly Pantoja who comes with a higher floor and who has already shown a KO-ceiling with two such endings of late... while Royval was actually KO'd himself the last time we saw him. I'd say Pantoja gets a little bit back on track on Saturday by defeating the fresher Royval.
