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The top daily fantasy football lineup picks for DraftKings in Week 11. Ben Rolfe's NFL DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Anytime you lose both the Rams and the Chiefs from a slate you are set for a weird week. Throw in the Patriots on a bye and there are a lot of big names missing in Week 11. However, thankfully we still have the Chargers and the Saints on the slate. Interestingly this week the slate feels very top heavy at the running back position, with three of the most talented running backs also having three of the more favorable matchups. That has left a strange void which may see you needing to go for the expensive option at the running back position and then try and save salary elsewhere. However, fortunately, there are some interesting cheap plays at the other three positions, allowing you to load up at running back and still be able to afford one of the elite wide receivers. Below are my DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks for Week 11.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, performances so far, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great value plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 11.
Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 11 Picks
Drew Brees - NO vs. PHI (DK $6,500)
At this stage, it is virtually impossible to not consider Brees for your DraftKings lineup. The Saints appear on a charge to win Brees the MVP, so they continue throwing long after they have the game in hand. This week they are facing a defense who are surrendering 22.4 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the road. In addition, their secondary is depleted beyond belief and their defensive line should be somewhat negated by being on the road. In a game with an over/under set at around 55, I cannot see any situation where Brees does not put up great numbers again this week. However, this is a week where the running back landscape pushes you towards the more expensive end and therefore you may want to look to save money on the quarterback position.
Marcus Mariota - TEN @ IND (DK $5,500)
This game is extremely intriguing to me. The Titans offense appears to be waking up in the last couple of weeks, and Mariota has looked much more effective now that he is healthy. The Colts defense is giving up 17.1 fantasy points to quarterbacks at home this season, which is extremely close to being in the top-10 worst numbers in 2018. The Indianapolis defense is not bad but they are by no means scary. Their pass rush has struggled as the season has gone on and they are susceptible to the big play as we saw last week.
Dak Prescott - DAL @ ATL (DK $5,200)
This is my weekly pick against the Atlanta Falcons defense, who are surrendering 28.9 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks at home this season. That is the worst number of the season and it is not even as if they have just faced incredible quarterbacks every week. They surrendered three touchdowns and 337 yards to Andy Dalton and 399 yards to Eli Manning. Last week Baker Mayfield was at one point 12-for-12, and ended 17-for-20 with three touchdowns and an average of 10.8 yards per attempt. In the last three games, Dak has thrown for an average of 262 yards with four passing touchdowns. He has also added two rushing touchdowns and 53 rushing yards in those three games, making him a legitimate top-10 quarterback over that period.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 11 Picks
Saquon Barkley - NYG vs. TB (DK $8,700)
You could talk me into selecting any of the top three options this week but Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500, @ ATL) come out on top of Melvin Gordon ($8.700 vs. DEN). The Buccaneers are surrendering 23.6 fantasy points per game on average to #1 running backs when playing on the road. Barkley does suffer a little from his seeming home run or bust mentality. However, he has now been held out of the end zone for the last two weeks so this feels like the week that he gets back on the scoreboard and potentially in a big way
David Johnson - ARI vs. OAK (DK $7,500)
Johnson is coming off his most productive game of the season, in which he averaged 4.67 yards per carry and added 85 receiving yards on seven catches and nine targets. This week he gets to go up against an Oakland Raiders team who are surrendering 15.5 fantasy points to opposing #1 running backs and 28.5 against the running back position overall. With little competition for touches in that backfield, Johnson should the opportunity to get over 20 fantasy points this week.
Doug Martin - OAK @ ARI (DK $4,500)
I wanted to suggest a couple of lower-priced options this week just in case you were not able to get both Johnson and Barkley in your lineup, or if you were set on starting Drew Brees. Martin carried the ball 15 times last week, gaining 51 yards and added another 31 yards receiving on three receptions. This week he faces an Arizona defense surrendering 17.6 fantasy points to opposing running backs at home, giving him a shot to have a solid week for you in Week 11.
Alex Collins - BAL vs. CIN (DK $4,400)
The Bengals are surrendering 19.6 fantasy points to #1 running backs and 31.9 points to the position on the whole when they play on the road in 2018. Collin's situation has been a little murky at times this season, which is the reason for the low price. However, he has found the end zone in three of the last four weeks with four touchdowns in that time and at a bargain basement price, he makes for an interesting gamble play in Week 11.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 11 Picks
Odell Beckham Jr. - NYG vs TB (DK $8,400)
I believe this is the first time I have selected Beckham this season. However, he is extremely hard to ignore this week against the Buccaneers, who surrender 20 fantasy points to opposing #1 receivers. Over the last five weeks, Beckham has averaged 11.4 targets per game, has had over 100 receiving yards three times and has scored four touchdowns, including two last week. The Giants offense looked somewhat refreshed coming off the bye, even if it was still not amazing, and this matchup should be a nice one for Beckham to exploit.
If you cannot afford Beckham then Sterling Shepard ($5,300) is a nice alternative as the Buccaneers are also surrendering an average of 19.9 fantasy points to opposing #2 receivers when on the road in 2018.
Alshon Jeffery - PHI @ NO (DK $6,300)
The over/under of 55 on this game tells you this is going to be a shootout. The Saints defense is improved but it is still not amazing and the Eagles should be able to move the ball with a full complement of receiving options available to them. There is a weird stat this season where the Saints defense is actually surrendering more points to #2 receivers than #1 receivers. However, I am not entirely sure who is the #2 for the Eagles at this point so I am backing Jeffery to have a good day against a Saints defense who have been leaky at times this season.
Cole Beasley - DAL @ ATL (DK $4,400)
Beasley has been hit or miss this season but there is the potential for a nice week against the Falcons. The Falcons do not have a reliable slot cover corner and that is reflected in the fact that they have surrendered 15.8 fantasy points against receivers who line up in the slot. The return of Deion Jones should boost the Falcons defense but he is likely to be focused on covering Elliott when on the field this week.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 11 Picks
Evan Engram - NYG vs. TB (DK $4,100)
It finally feels like Engram is back up to speed in 2018 following his early-season injury. In the last three weeks, he has seen 18 targets and last week he had an 80% catch rate. The Buccaneers are giving up 13.3 fantasy points to number one tight ends on the road this season and 14.7 overall, meaning that Engram should be able to have success in this matchup.
Ricky Seals-Jones - ARI vs. OAK (DK $2,900)
It is all about finding the low priced guys at these positions to try and squeeze as many high-priced running backs and wide receiver in as you can. Seals-Jones saw nine targets last week and seems to be growing into this offense more and more as the season progresses. The Oakland Raiders are giving up an average of 14.7 fantasy points per game to the tight end position so Seals-Jones should be able to have success.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 11 Picks
Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins (DK $2,600)
The Washington Redskins offense is a shell of itself and it was not really anything to be scared of before that. Their offensive line is in tatters which has taken away their ability to run the ball as effectively as they were doing. This game is unlikely to be high scoring so the Texans floor should be relatively high. My only concern is that Alex Smith is generally very secure with the ball so the turnover potential is low.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $2,200)
This all depends on how brave you are feeling. The Jaguars defense absolutely destroyed Ben Roethlisberger in the regular season last year and they did not do too badly in the playoffs either. If A.J. Bouye is back I really like this as a gamble upside play. The Jaguars would then have two good corners, relatively good safeties and linebackers with lateral speed. Those elements should allow them to hang with this Pittsburgh offense. This is not a pick I feel great about given the way the Steelers are playing but if you need to save some money to squeeze another high priced skill guy in your lineup this is an option.
