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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on April 30, 2018. Adam Meyer's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
For Monday, we’re working with a 10-game slate, beginning at 7:05pm, on DraftKings. This means one game is not included on the ticket: TEX/CLE (6:10pm). No Trevor Bauer for us. No worries. That’s why we’re here to help.
I was surprised to see COL/CHC on the docket. The schedules I’ve seen mention a 7:00pm start on ESPN. However, while the broadcast will start at 7:00pm, I’m sure the first pitch won’t be until 7:05pm. It’s good news for us. That means we’ll have better bats to choose from (cue the 1-0 pitcher’s duel).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/30/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @CharlieSideHstl.
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DraftKings Starting Pitchers
Jake Arrieta, PHI (@ MIA) - $10,900
At first glance, I was shocked that Arrieta was the most-expensive pitcher for Monday. Then, once you dig deeper into the numbers, it’s no surprise at all why DK pegged Arrieta with the high price tag. First, Arrieta has been a machine. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his four starts this season. Next, the Marlins offense hasn’t been great. Go figure, they lose their four best hitters and now they’re struggling. The Marlins are 29th in runs scored this season (85 runs in 26 games). Miami is also tied for eighth in team strikeouts with 247 whiffs. To make matters worse, the Marlins are 29th in team wOBA against right-handed pitchers (.273). Marlins Park is also home to the second-best Park Factor for pitchers over the past three years. Finally, Arrieta already faced them in his first start: 4 IP, 2 ER, and 5 K in a shortened 74-pitch debut for the Phillies. Need any more reasons to invest in Arrieta? Yeah, neither do I.
Jeff Samardzija, SF (vs. SD) - $8,700
Well, now that we know to lock-in Arrieta, who do we choose as our SP2? One option is Samardzija. Vegas is a big factor in this decision. The SD/SF matchup is given a slate-low over/under of 7.5 total runs with the Giants as the favorite (-155). That’s strong enough of a case to investigate The Shark. Things did not go well for Mr. Samardzija in his last outing (3.2 IP, 6 ER). However, the Padres can not compare to the Nationals and their lineup. San Diego has the third-worst team wOBA (.294) against right-handed pitchers (.319 for Nationals). The Padres also lead the league with 291 team strikeouts this season (26 more than second place club).
Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (vs. KC) - $7,600
If that last poor outing is enough to scare you away from Samardzija, then let me recommend Rodriguez as your SP2 for Monday. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his four starts this season. Rodriguez has also struck out at least five batters in three of those four performances. The Royals are fifth, with a team strikeout percentage of 26% against left-handed pitchers in 2018. Vegas is a fan of Boston, too. Rodriguez, and the Red Sox, boast the strongest odds to win on Monday (-230).
DraftKings Infielders
C - Salvador Perez, KC (@ BOS) - $3,500
Now, if you chose Rodriguez as your SP2, I wouldn’t advise taking any Royals. When I take a pitcher in DFS, I want his opponent to get shutout. I don’t cheer for one player to do well. It’s just too much to ask. If you didn’t choose Rodriguez, then go ahead and select Perez. He leads the Royals with a .237 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
1B - Jesus Aguilar, MIL (@ CIN) - $3,100
There are a few inexpensive bats I like at first base on Monday: Buster Posey ($3,700), Anthony Rizzo ($3,600), and Justin Smoak ($3,500). However, there’s a cheaper option who could outperform all of them. Aguilar is second on the Brewers with a .222 ISO against southpaws. This season, he’s 6-for-14 (.429) with three doubles and three walks against left-handed pitchers. His opposing pitcher for Monday, Brandon Finnegan, has the third-highest HR/9 (1.42) out this pitcher pool. Also, in Finnegan’s career, right-handed hitters have a .327 wOBA against him.
2B - Daniel Robertson, TB (@ DET) - $3,700
Yes, I understand that Robertson is much better against left-handed pitchers in his career. However, his bat is on fire so much right now that it doesn’t matter who is on the hill. In the past week, Robertson is 11-for-21 (.524) with one home run. This season, he is 13-for-36 (.361) against right-handed pitchers (“only” .318 AVG against lefties). Given a proper sample size, Jordan Zimmermann leads the slate with a 1.17 HR/9 ratio since 2017. Tampa Bay is favored (-120) and the over/under is nine total runs. All those facts slide the scale towards Robertson.
3B - Evan Longoria, SF (vs. SD) - $3,600
I know that you’re dying to choose between Nolan Arenado ($5,000) and Kris Bryant ($4,900) in their showdown on Monday night, but I’m going a different route. Longoria is also facing a lefty and he thrives against them. He’s posted a .204 ISO against southpaws and Longo is currently batting .300 (12-for-40) against left-handed hitters this season. While he only has a .247 AVG in 2018, Longoria is starting to heat up. He’s tallied five hits in his last three starts, with three of them going for extra-bases (two home runs). The Giants are also facing a pitcher, Eric Lauer, who was tagged for six earned runs in his lone outing of 2018 (@ Colorado).
SS - Jose Peraza, CIN (vs. MIL) - $3,700
Guess who’s tallied the most hits in the past week. Times up. The answer is Peraza. Sorry that I didn’t give you more time, but why would I ask the question if it wasn’t him, right? Anyways, Peraza is 14-for-36 (.389) with two home runs and one stolen base in the last seven days. The MIL/CIN matchup is tied for the highest over/under of the slate (9.5 total runs). This is the easiest decision for your Monday DFS lineup.
DraftKings Outfielders
J.D. Martinez, BOS (vs. KC) - $5,100
If you followed along with my suggestions, and made Arrieta/ERod your starting pitchers, then you should have around $4,600 per player remaining at this point. Let’s spend some of that salary. Martinez was a perfect 4-for-4 on Sunday. He continues to crush righties. Not only does he have a .341 ISO since 2017, but Martinez is 22-for-72 (.306) with five home runs against righties in 2018. The Red Sox lead the slate in terms of implied run total and Martinez should be a big factor in the outcome.
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR (@ MIN) - $4,200
I’m waiting for Hernandez to come back down to Earth, but let’s ride the wave until that happens. He leads Toronto with an out-of-this-world .415 ISO against right-handed pitchers since 2017. He’s notched five extra-base hits in the past four games. He’s batting .375 (12-for-32) against righties this season. It’s harder to find reasons NOT to choose him on Monday.
Andrew McCutchen, SF (vs. SD) - $3,500
Much like first base, you could go a number of directions for this final outfield spot. Any Brewer (Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, and Christian Yelich) would work. However, if you went with Arrieta/Samardzija as your two pitchers, then Cutch is the perfect amount of money to construct this entire page of advice. Sure, McCutchen is only batting .200 right now, but he still has a .314 ISO against southpaws (since 2017). Plus, he’s still managing to get on base via the walk. He’s tallied seven base on balls in the past five games. It’s only a matter of time until he starts to tally up the hits.
