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Nick Mariano identifies some deep ADP sleepers for 2018 fantasy baseball drafts at first base. These 1B should be draft targets in mixed leagues.
We are gathered here today to discuss everyone’s favorite fantasy buzzword, the “sleepers”. Not only that, but we’re tabbing these guys as deeper sleepers with a focus on the first base position.
That means no Jose Martinez cop-out blurbs because that dude has already woken up and then some! With draft season officially underway, it's time to make sure you have some middle and late round targets handy.
Be sure to also checkout our famous Draft Value and Sleepers List, and download the free app for iPhone and Android. Without further ado, we dive in...
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Deeper Sleepers at First Base
Yonder Alonso (CLE, 1B)
You might be looking around and thinking, “I thought this guy said deep sleepers!”, but the 2017 All-Star 1B has a lowly 279.4 ADP in NFBC drafts that have completed within the 3/1-3/13/18 window. That makes him the 31st 1B-eligible player off of the board.
Not cool, man. Alonso raked in Oakland, which only has a 0.88 HR park factor for left-handed batters per Swish Analytics, and he now gets to play in Cleveland, which holds a 1.24 HR park factor for LHB. I get how yelling regression at the sky and cursing his second half is the end of the conversation for many, but ignoring Progressive Field is a poor call. Especially since his power is exceptionally pullish (40.8 percent in ‘17) and goes right into Progressive’s advantage.
It’s also not fair to write off Alonso’s second half as unusable, as his fly-ball and hard-hit rates were still above what we’re used to seeing from him. His power-happy approach allowed him to destroy fastballs like never before, with his slugging percentage rising from .409 on four-seamers in ‘16 to .679 in ‘17. His slugging percentage against two-seamers nearly doubled, from .380 to .750!
He’s not a sure thing and you’ll be gambling just like Cleveland did, but the upside is worth it and his floor looks to still be worth the cost. This is the perfect buying spot for a guy in a lineup that Fangraphs projects to score 5.06 runs per game, tied for the fourth-most in the bigs. Get yourself a cheap piece of that action right here!
Colin Moran (PIT, 1B/3B)
Moran was brought to Pittsburgh to play at the hot corner, but he qualifies at both first and third base and dang it, I just want to talk about him! The 25-year-old only mustered a .697 OPS with 10 homers in 511 Triple-A plate appearances in 2016. Not great. He had been a ground-ball hitter throughout the Minors, rocking up BABIPs in the .330-.360 range with a batting average around .300. In other words, he was good at making contact, but the contact wasn’t counting for much.
Enter: Jeff Albert. The Astros hitting coordinator started working with Moran and establishing a practice regimen that had him operating at game speed all of the time with a focus on hitting liners to the outfield. Even before the 2017 changed-swing renaissance, Brian McTaggart wrote a nice piece about Moran’s change. Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette dove into the dynamic between Moran and Albert here. These were not your typical 2017 conversations:
“We never talked about launch angle; we never talked about hitting more home runs,” Moran said. “That was just kind of a byproduct of being more efficient and being more consistent about practicing closer to that game speed, so that I didn’t have too many games where I went into it just hoping to scratch for a hit.”
Moran would go on to crank 18 homers with a .916 OPS in just 338 Triple-A PAs for Houston in ‘17, eventually getting promoted and going 4-for-11 with a homer in the Majors before he foul-tipped a ball into his face and suffered a fracture that ended any big-league bid. 11 at-bats are as small a sample size as you can get, but the improvements seen in the Minors looked to carry over.
Now he’s poised to be Pittsburgh’s third baseman and qualify at both corner-infield slots for fantasy in no time. Swish Analytics gives Pittsburgh a left-handed HR factor of 0.98, which isn’t ideal, but it’s much better than being a righty there (0.75). It’s within reason that he hits above .280, maybe even .300, with 20-25 homers for the Pirates.
Other Later-Round First Basemen I Like
Logan Morrison (MIN, 1B)
LoMo and his 38 homers from 2017 found a home in Minnesota for 2018. Many are looking at his '17 power surge with a Chris Carter-like aversion, but his fly-ball rate jumped by 12 percentage points alongside a career-high 37.4 percent hard-hit rate. Target Field seems to have a pitcher-friendly reputation to it, especially for lefty swingers due to the high right-field wall, but Swish Analytics gives it a rather neutral 0.94 HR factor for lefties alongside marks just above 1.00 for all other hit types. He should hit fifth most of the time, but if Miguel Sano misses time due to suspension (or injury, or anyone else misses time) then Morrison could be the cleanup hitter. I'm a fan at this price.
Matt Adams (WAS, 1B)
Ask anyone why they aren't buying into Ryan Zimmerman this year and one of the first things you're going to hear is "his durability". Well then, the counterweight to such thinking makes Adams, Washington's backup first-bagger, a dynamite stash. Adams delighted fantasy owners with a .858 OPS and 19 homers in just 314 PAs after being traded to Atlanta in the wake of Freddie Freeman's injury. That makes for roughly 35 moonshots in a full season's work if you're trying to compare him to someone else. Those with deeper benches (and who drafted Zimmy) should grab him late just in case he's suddenly inserted into a monstrous Washington lineup.
C.J. Cron (TB, 1B)
Folks might not be quick to roster many Rays this season, but winning percentage aside, they're going to play in fantastic hitters parks when they're getting waxed by Boston and New York, and Baltimore and Toronto remain great power parks as well. The Trop is not, of course, but at least Cron is a righty (0.93 HR factor for RHB, 0.84 for LHB). I won't be surprised at all if Cron swiftly moves up in the batting order as it becomes clear that he's a better hitter than Brad Miller or Matt Duffy. Fangraphs' Depth Charts projects him for 24 HRs and 82 RBI in 595 PAs, which is definitely worth plugging in with your last pick. Those in weekly leagues will want to note his streaky nature, but gambling on a heater to start the season is a good look for power-needy owners late.
