Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): U.S. Open

September 16, 2020

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his U.S. Open DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Before we get started into the second major of 2020, I just wanted to give a massive shoutout to Joe Nicely for helping with this article last week. He did a magnificent job taking over the reins and added great insight that included recommendations of Sam Burns, Brendan Steele and Cameron Davis. Be sure to give him a follow on Twitter if you aren't doing so already, as he delivers superb weekly content that can help you win big when playing DFS golf.

With all that being said, I am happy to be back for this week's U.S. Open. Major championship events are typically my favorite tournaments to tackle from any sort of a gambling perspective, and this week will be no different at a test that could provide a winning score over-par. I feel as if that tough tests usually will supply us our best opportunity to model and break down what we expect to transpire, so without further ado, let's get right into the meat of what everyone came here to see!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - U.S. Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

U.S. Open - PGA DFS Overview

Winged Foot

7,477  Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua

A typical U.S. Open is known for carnage, and we should have just that this weekend at Winged Foot. From a DFS/betting perspective, it provides an extra level of volatility, as it is not going to be easy to make up lost ground. That will get even further enhanced with only the top-6o and ties making the cut, but it doesn't mean we can't figure out an avenue to locate an advantage.

The rough is going to be extremely penial, making total driving a necessity to find success. Greens will feature undulated slopes that will need to be missed in the right locations, and certain spots will not allow a real opportunity to get up-and-down for par. That means we should focus on around the green and three-putt avoidance when modeling the event.

While it is easier said than done, the tournament will have to be played out of the fairway for anyone that wants a true shot at the title. Most tend to think that means finding the most accurate players on tour, but I believe that is the wrong way to view this scenario. If a player is shorter off the tee but generally gains strokes in that facet of their game, they aren't the golfer I am talking about, but the biggest bomber that is the most accurate for the week will have an advantage over most of the field. That isn't necessarily an easy thing to target, but it is worth keeping in mind when making your wagers/lineups.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 10/1, Rory McIlroy at 12/1, Justin Thomas at 14/1 and Xander Schauffele at 16/1. Your defending champion, Gary Woodland, enters the week at 66/1

Key Stats

• Total Driving 15%
• OTT + App 15%
• Scramble 15%
• Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
• Three-Putt Percentage 12.%
• Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
• Sand Save Percentage 10%
• Driving Distance 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

Flying into the week playing perhaps the best golf of his career, Dustin Johnson leads the way at $11,500 on DraftKings. The big-hitting American will need every bit of that form to conquer a challenging Winged Foot test, but how should we feel about his price tag on DFS sites? With the amount of volatility present at the venue, I am once again going to make Johnson beat me in all betting markets. Taking a contrarian route doesn't mean you are always right, but it does suggest that you will need to have a stomach capable of being in uncomfortable situations. If DJ beats me, all I can do is tip my cap to him and move on.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

Will the U.S. Open be the location for Jon Rahm's first major championship? It is possible with the way the Spaniard can dominate on tough courses. One could argue that Rahm has won at the two most challenging tests so far in 2020 (Memorial & BMW Championship), and there is a chance he could thrive once again if he keeps his head on straight. I am much more likely to spend up and grab Rahm if I am going to go to the $11,000 or above range, but avoiding this domain altogether might help you to bypass nearly 30% of the field that will begin their lineups with the two men up top. That thought process is geared towards extremely large-field GPP contests, and it is not to say that Rahm isn't in play in those settings as well. I will be playing my fair share of him, and he is fairly priced at $11,000.

Justin Thomas ($10,700), Rory McIlroy (10,500)

Both Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy have had the propensity to do most of their damage at easier setups than we will get this weekend in New York. Thomas has only won three of his 13 titles on the PGA Tour in single-digits (PGA Championship -8, CJ Cup -9 and the Honda Classic -8, while McIlroy has failed to find the winner's circle at a total worse than 12-under par during any of his 28 worldwide victories. Those numbers are slightly skewed when you take into account that we don't get many events that fall into that territory, but it does indicate both players would prefer something a little easier than Winged Foot is looking like it will be this week. If I were to play one of the two, Thomas seems like a much better target with his skill set, but the complaining and continual loss of focus will need to stop for him to get over the hump.

Xander Schauffele ($10,100)

From an overall ranking standpoint, Xander Schauffele is my number one golfer at the U.S. Open. The American ranks inside the top-seven for me when it comes to stats, form and event history, and he does appear to be one of the safest options you can select. We can't bypass the entire board while worrying about ownership, but an extremely outside the box route for a few of your builds would be to start with your first golfer under $10,000. That will avoid some of the clutter up top and still allow you to be unique. However, if you are playing a plethora of lineups, you are most likely going to want to be around market value on the seventh-ranked player in the world because there is no reason to take a stance against him and let him decide your week.

Collin Morikawa ($10,000)

If I am being honest, I am not sure how much I love this layout for Collin Morikawa. The winner of the PGA Championship will go off as one of the highest owned players, but his shaky around the green game, poor three-putt avoidance numbers and overall inconsistent nature scrambling have him as someone that could find trouble if his irons aren't dialed in. Morikawa's strength in his approach game can solve many of his issues, but I am not sure this is the venue where he wants to rely on that one facet of his game.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Bryon DeChambeau ($9,900)

During my course breakdown, I discussed how Winged Foot could make it challenging for golfers that place themselves behind the eight-ball early. For a player like Bryson DeChambeau, that sentiment rings louder than most, as the 'Mad Scientist' is capable of any concoction or experiment for what is proper while playing a hole. Over the course of four days, one of those tests is bound to go wrong, making DeChambeau a prime blow-up candidate at any moment. I'm not projecting him to miss the cut and wouldn't be shocked to see him provide a top-25 finish, but if victory probably isn't in the likely range of outcomes, $9,900 is still a costly price tag to pay. You won't need much ownership to outweigh his current four percent projected total, so I don't mind taking a shot here and there, but there is risk involved.

Webb Simpson ($9,700)

The question for Webb Simpson will come down to the following: How much will his lack of distance and inferior off the tee numbers hurt his chances at an extended, arduous test. His erratic performance at East Lake has drawn some question marks for me in what to expect, but my model still likes his chances to find success. At a 16 percent projected ownership total, I will most likely go with my gut over my spreadsheet and be underweight to the field on him, but I can understand why someone would see this as an opportunity to grab value at a respectable number.

Daniel Berger ($9,200)

When we look at difficult U.S. Open tests, there haven't been many over the last few years that have been more challenging than Shinnecock Hills in 2018. Some can place the difficulty onto Saturday's baked out greens that saw the leaders falter down the stretch, but Daniel Berger was one of the names that found himself at the top of the leaderboard going into the final round after the weekend implosion happened for many in the field. Berger wasn't able to turn that chance into anything better than a sixth-place result, but there is no doubt that the 27-year-old has uncracked his potential so far in 2020, posting 10 top-25s over his previous 11 tournaments. Berger is closing in on his first major, and I wouldn't put it past him grabbing it in New York.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000)

Anyone who reads this article weekly will know that I have a slight obsession with Hideki Matsuyama's game. The Japanese sensation might be the best "pure" ball-striker on tour, but his lack of putting seems to undo his chances of finding more success than he does. Matsuyama's issue isn't that he is a poor putter; many guys have that complication and are able to see bursts of success randomly. Instead, his problem comes down to an overall inability to ever get anything going on the greens. He doesn't just lose; he loses almost every single time. While that is a hitch that needs to be changed, the 28-year-old has managed to gain a combined four shots with his putter over his last four tournaments, which might be a good sign that things are turning around.

Adam Scott ($8,700)

The betting market seems to be more in tune with where Adam Scott should be priced for the U.S. Open than DraftKings. Scott is the 15th priced player on DraftKings but comes in as the 11th golfer in the outright market. The eleventh position is where I have Scott being proper in all avenues, making him a small value at $8,700 and someone I am willing to play across the board.

Patrick Reed ($8,500), Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100)

Substantial projected ownership totals for Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton won't take away from the duo being marginally underpriced for the week at their current going rate. As was the case with Adam Scott, I believe the betting markets are more lined up with what is proper, and it never hurts to seize some value when possible. Reed and Hatton have an outside shot to capture the title in New York but primarily should be viewed as cash-game staples.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Paul Casey ($7,900)

The curious case of Paul Casey will be a conundrum that makes it tough to decide how to proceed this week. Casey's lack of win equity is no longer just a statement; it is a fact. However, his $7,900 price tag doesn't require a victory to pay off his value. I am not a massive fan of acquiring low win equity players at a high ownership total in GPP contests, but I can understand Casey's intrigue when that is already being baked into his number.

Matt Kuchar ($7,200)

Speaking of low win equity golfers, Matt Kuchar continues to see his price tag shrink - coming into this week at just $7,200. The American has provided three top-16 results over his last five U.S. Open events, and the overall plodding nature of Winged Foot should play into his style.

Alex Noren ($7,100)

Alex Noren's four missed cuts in five years at the U.S. Open will keep his ownership totals subsided on all DFS sites, but it is his 25th place result at Shinnecock Hills that I find to be the most intriguing. Noren is a better player when the scores ramp up in difficulty, and I believe the perceived nature of this week's venue not fitting into his style might allow us to grab the Swede at what should be considered value.

Chez Reavie ($6,900)

I have Chez Reavie's expected cost being off by nearly $700 from where it should be for the second major of the year. Unfortunately, most golf pundits have also come up with the same sentiment, causing his projected ownership to hover around 15% for the week. There are some potential pivot spots available for those that want to go down a contrarian route, but Reavie's price tag is difficult to ignore.

Jason Kokrak ($6,800)

Jason Kokrak's 2020 season came to a halt before East Lake, but it wasn't from a lack of effort. The American posted three straight top-15 results, which included a sixth-place finish at the BMW Championship. Kokrak is a sensational ball striker that also gets distance off the tee, and we should see Winged Foot enhance some of those traits.

Kevin Na ($6,800)

In Kevin Na's previous six U.S. Open's, the 36-year-old has generated five top-32 results, which includes a seventh-place effort in 2016. Na's scrambling and around the green prowess should shine through at a venue that will need creativity, and his putter is always capable of keeping him in an event.

Brian Harman ($6,400)

The biggest disparity on this week's model belongs to Brian Harman, who comes in 79 spots lower on DraftKings than my spreadsheet has him projected. It is not often that I have mid-$6,000 players jump inside the top-10 in multiple variations of running the spreadsheet, and it is a big enough head-turner for me to take notice in all markets.

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