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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): U.S. Open


Welcome back RotoBallers! Rory McIlroy shot a final-round 61, (9-under), to capture the RBC Canadian Open (-22) winning by seven strokes. Now, before you start penciling him in for a top-position at the U.S. Open know this stat,

In this article, I will be providing you with my  DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the United States Open. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. You can also track my selections against every other fantasy golf expert on dailyoverlay.com.

If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.  Sign Up Now!

 

U.S. Open - PGA DFS Overview

The PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach, Calif. for the third major, the U.S. Open. This is the best tournament in my opinion. The United States Golf Association, who oversees the U.S. Open, makes this the toughest test. They want the winning score to be even-par and I love that. Players get no easy holes and everything must be earned. This is the hardest test in golf players must be great all-around players to win.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par-71, 7,040 yards. There e four par-3's, 11 par-4's, and three par-5's. The 18th hole is a par-5 that saw a birdie rate of 30.7 percent and eagle rate of 1.3 percent. The greens are Poa Annua and tiny in size.

This course does host the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am annually, but the course is so much different from what it was in February. The rough is completely grown out and a mess of a situation. The fairways are narrower. The greens are faster and one of the par-5's has been changed to a par-4.

Let's take a look at the stats:

Stat Pebble Beach GL Tour Average
Driving Distance 268 283
Driving Accuracy 70% 61%
GIR Percentage 63% 66%
Scrambling Percentage 58% 57%
Average three-putts per round 0.47 0.56

 

Player Strokes Gained Total (last five U.S. Open's)
Brooks Koepka 65.29
Dustin Johnson 56.35
Louis Oosthuizen 39.29
Patrick Reed 36.79
Tommy Fleetwood 36.59

The two-time defending champion is Brooks Koepka. The last time Pebble Beach hosted the U.S. Open was 2010 when Graeme McDowell won with a score of even-par.

In Vegas, as of Tuesday on sportsbook.ag, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, and Rory McIlroy are the 8-1 favorites. Tiger Woods is 10-1, Patrick Cantlay 14-1, and Jordan Spieth 16-1.

My custom stat model will be focusing on the following:

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000;

Brooks Koepka ($11,600) - The two-time defending U.S. Open and PGA champion is off a T-50 in Canada. He comes in ranked 53rd in my custom rankings. Now, that's because I didn't factor in any percentage points to driving distance because Pebble doesn't reward driving distance. Koepka is obviously not someone you want to fade, but I may just avoid him in all head-to-head matchups.

Dustin Johnson ($11,300) - Last time the U.S. Open was played at Pebble was 2010. DJ was 6-under heading into the final round and held a three-shot lead. But the final round of a major got to him. He triple-bogeyed the second and doubled the third, completely derailing his round He ended up shooting an 82 finishing T-8, 5-over. Don't think he forgot that. I'm sure he's had this tournament circled on his calendar for a while now. I'm going with him to win. I hate taking someone at a low-price like he is, but he's a great U.S. Open player. Just look at his U.S. Open results the last five years.

The big thing with DJ is can he putt when he needs to? Well, Poa Annua is his best surface by a wide margin. He gains 0.47 strokes on it. The PGA at Bethpage was Poa Annua and he gained three strokes putting there. In the last 24 rounds putting on Poa, DJ ranks fourth gaining 20.6 strokes.

Pebble Beach can also get windy with its location right on the Pacific Ocean. When its really windy, that's where DJ gains the most strokes.

Tiger Woods ($10,700) - Woods lapped the field at the U.S. Open here in 2000 winning by 15 strokes at a score of 12-under. He was the only player to shoot under-par and he did it at 12-under! That was 19 years ago and that was Tiger's heyday. He comes in ranked ninth for me and as long as he continues to not be super aggressive, take the shots he can get, and put the ball in the fairway, he's going to be around late Sunday. He can also play in the wind. Forget his putting, Tiger can make any putt when needed.

Rory McIlroy ($10,500) - Not only is McIroy coming in really hot but he's also having a great season. However, both majors this season have seen him be way out of contention Sunday only for a good final-round to put him in the top-25 making the majors look good from the outside. Last week was his first time in seven tournaments (Arnold Palmer Inv'l) that saw him in the green in splitting fairways. He's also missed three consecutive cuts at the U.S. Open. Rory has said in the past he doesn't like to play in the wind and his major wins have come when its damp and long. Pebble is not that.

Jordan Spieth ($10,300) - It's great to see Spieth back to his old ways after three consecutive top-10's. I think his finesse around the green and on the green will be a major advantage to him this week. He's over his putting yips and he's an amazing putter on Poa surfaces.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,000) - I was very surprised to see him here. I know he's off winning The Memorial two weeks ago and a T-3 at the PGA, but I don't agree with him being in this range over the likes of Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood. His stats are telling me he has the all-around game to be a threat here, but my gut is not.

 

Middle-to-low-priced DFS Players

Jason Day ($9,100) - It's really surprising he hasn't won the U.S. Open yet. He has the all-around game for this major and has had two runner-ups and three other top-10's. However, he's missed the last two cuts at this event. His last time out saw him cut at the Memorial, but I'm just gonna go with him because I know he has what it takes to play well on this type of course.

Francesco Molinari ($9,000) - Since he fell apart on the back-nine of Augusta, he's fallen off the map. He somehow is not a good putter on Poa Annua surfaces, but I don't care. This guy is such a clutch putter. He knows how to save par and saving par is a formula to win at the U.S. Open.

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,900) - If DJ doesn't win, I think it'll be Fleetwood. This man can go low when he needs to on the weekend of a U.S. Open. He finished fourth two years ago and second last year. It's only a matter of time before he breaks through for his first major.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800) - Matsuyama's stats are good across the board. He's been playing great golf of late with a sixth-place finish at the Memorial. He's had three top-20's at the U.S. Open in the last four years including a runner-up in 2017.

Xander Schauffele ($8,700) - Throw out all the stats with the X-Man because he is a big-game hunter. He plays his best at the biggest tournaments. He surged onto the scene with a T-5 at the 2017 U.S. Open and backed it up last year with a T-6.

Matt Kuchar ($8,500) - He missed last year's U.S. Open cut but made the eight previous. He can accurately split the fairway, is a good putter, and scores well on par-70. He's also had top-10's in the past three tournaments.

Paul Casey ($8,300) - He continues to burn me in big tournaments so why not get burned once more by the Englishman. His stats are really good and he comes out as my fifth-ranked player.

Webb Simpson ($7,700) - My number-one ranked player is off a runner-up last week at the Canadian Open. Simpson has made seven of eight U.S. Open cuts including winning in 2012 which was also in California.

Brandt Snedeker ($7,500) - His price has already dropped from 100-1 to 50-1. He's a two-tine winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and is coming off T-4 in Canada. He also finished T-16 at the PGA and T-19 at the Charles Schwab. He may not be the most accurate in terms of proximity, but he is so accurate off the tee. Sneds has also three top-10 finishes at the last five U.S. Open's.

Zach Johnson ($7,000) - ZJ is a good player when it's a short course and there's wind. Think the British Open he won in 2015. He splits the fairway at ease and has made his last five U.S. Open cuts.

Scottie Scheffler ($6,700) - Surprised to see him priced this low when you look at his stats. This will be his third U.S. Open (missed cut in 2016 and was T-27 in 2017).

Devon Bling ($6,200) - The 19-year-old UCLA sophomore is set to play in his first U.S. Open. I heard something good about Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) on him so I'll take my chances.

 

Custom Rankings

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


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