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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): THE PLAYERS Championship


Welcome back RotoBallers! Francesco Molinari (-12) captured the Arnold Palmer Invitational thanks to a Sunday surge that saw him shoot an 8-under 64.

In this article, I will be providing you with my  DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the THE PLAYERS Championship. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. You can also track my selections against every other fantasy golf expert on dailyoverlay.com

If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.  Sign Up Now!

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots. 

Sign Up Now!

 

THE PLAYERS Championship - PGA DFS Overview

The PGA Tour heads down the coast to TPC Sawgrass for the "fifth major" in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. It's the most lucrative event, a major reason why all 50 of the world's top 50 will be competing. This championship used to be played in May, but with the schedule change, it returns to its original date of March, when it really should he played.

The course is a par-72 that plays to around 7,200 yards. There are four par-3's, 10 par-4's, and four par-5's. The par-5's are the four easiest holes on the course. The greens are Bermuda and faster than average. The greens are also really much smaller than the average green size on tour.

This course is famous for the par-3 17th hole, also known as the island green. Tournaments are won and lost on this hole.

Let's take a look at the stats:

Stat TPC Sawgrass Tour Average
Driving Distance 280 283
Driving Accuracy 63% 61%
GIR Percentage 64% 66%
Scrambling Percentage 54% 57%
Average three-putts per round 0.61 0.56

 

The average cut line the last seven years has been around 1-over.

Player Strokes Gained Total (last five years)
Adam Scott 33
Francesco Molinari 28.29
Rory McIlroy 28.18
Sergio Garcia 24.92
Chris Kirk 24.10

The defending champion is Webb Simpson. Previous winner are, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer, Tiger Woods, Matt Kuchar, K,J, Choi, and Tim Clark.

In Vegas, as of Monday on sportsbook.ag, Dustin Johnson is the 11-1 favorite. Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods are 12-1. Justin Thomas is 14-1, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler both 16-1. Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau are both 18-1.

My custom stat model will be focusing on stats from the start of the new year; Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (25%), SG: Par 5 (25%), Proximity 200+ (20 %), Par 4: 450-500 yards (20 %), and SG:Putting Bermuda (10 %)

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000;

Dustin Johnson ($11,400) - This will be DJ's first tournament since he won the WGC-Mexico two weeks ago. It would seem this course would be a good fit for him because birdying the par-5's are needed, but he only came in ninth in my custom rankings. He's also never finished in the top-10 here in 11 tries. I think his puttig will do him in this week.

Justin Thomas ($11,100) - JT's gotten off to a torrid start this year. He last played at the Honda last week finishing T-30. He ranks first SG: Par 5 and and second in ball striking, but I am scared of his putting after his last two outings saw a combined -3.9 strokes gained. However, I'll favor his recent track history at Sawgrass (T-24, T-3, T-75, T-11).

Rory McIlroy ($10,800) - I love what I've been seeing out of Rory this year that there can be a good argument made for him to be the highest-priced player. I'll even take it a step further and say he is my early target to win The Masters. Now he did bomb Sunday, but he's eventually going to get over that little hump. In his five tournaments in 2019, he's made the top-five four times, and was T-6 the other time (this past week at the Arnold Palmer). While he was cut at last year's PLAYERS, McIlroy saw a T-6 in 2014, T-8 in '15, and T-12 in '16. He also has the third-most strokes gained at Sawgrass the last five years.

Tiger Woods ($10,500) - Woods has gotten off to a fast start in 2019 also, but a neck strain forced him to withdraw from the Arnold Palmer last week. The numbers say he should play well, but I'm hesitant to choose him with that lingering neck strain.

Justin Rose ($10,200) - Was very disappointed with Rose after he blew up on the weekend. That could be from rust as he hadn't played in more than a month. I don't think Sawgrass truly suits Rose's game when you look at the numbers. He's made four of the last five cuts here including a T-4 in 2014, but other than that, nothing too good.

Brooks Koepka ($10,000) - I was spot-on last week going against Koepka and he ended up missing the cut. This week, I'm going with him. He's second in my custom rankings and has continued to improve at THE PLAYERS; cut in 2015, T-25, T-16, and T-11 last year.

 

Middle-Priced DFS Players

Sergio Garcia ($9,100) - Garcia has made 15 consecutive cuts at the THE PLAYERS including a win in 2008, and more recently, a solo third in 2014 and T-2 in 2015. His last two outings saw a T-9 in Mexico and T-6 at the Honda. I see him building off those two outings and being on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Xander Schauffele ($9,000) - Here's my number one player this week. His numbers are so good this year and he's been playing outstanding golf. He has not finished outside the top-25 in 2019 including a win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Last year was his debut at THE PLAYERS and he wound up finishing T-2.

Jordan Spieth ($8,900) - This is a complete Hail Mary, but when I see his price dip below $9,000, I see a major opportunity to get a three-time major winner at a great discount. The reason for this discount though is how bad he's been this year. While he's made his last four cuts, his best finish was T-35. He's also missed cuts here from 2015-17. I don't know if he'll even make the cut, but at this price and a low-ownership rate, it's worth the risk.

Adam Scott ($8,200) - It was awfully surprising to see him miss the cut at the Honda Classic two weeks ago. But I'll jump back on his bandwagon considering he has the most stokes gained at this event the last five years. He also has registered three consecutive top-15's including a top-10. He's going to need to be better on his approach shots from 200+ out to really push for a championship.

Alexander Noren ($7,500) - The Swede has been nothing short of bad this year, but that means he'll have a low-ownership stake. I'll take a flier based solely on his track record here; T-1o in 2017 and T-17 last year.

Gary Woodland ($7,500) - He's the top ball striker this year, fourth in SG: Par 5, and sixth in proximity from 200+ out. I am nervous about his putting on Berrmuda greens and his mixed history here (made cuts in in three of last five), but I'll side with his numbers here.

 

Low-Priced DFS Players

Russell Knox ($6,900) - All you can ask for with players this cheap is to make cuts to help with lineup flexibility. Knox is that guy as he's made seven consecutive cuts to start 2019. He missed his last two cuts at THE PLAYERS, but made the three before that including two top-20's.

Harold Varner III ($6,500) - While he missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer, he has made is last three cuts at THE PLAYERS including a T-7 last year.

Scott Brown ($6,300) - Brown's made four of seven cuts in 2019. I love that he ranks sixth in proximity from 200+ plus out which should set him out for some birdie opportunities.

Trey Mullinax ($6,000) - The cheapest player on the board has made all six of his cuts in 2019. He did miss the cut here last year, but if you need a really cheap option, he's a good flier.

 

Custom Rankings

Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer

Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.

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