RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Dustin Johnson took home his 21st title on the PGA Tour during last week's Travelers Championship, outlasting Kevin Streelman late to get himself across the finish line. The American got off to a slow start in Connecticut by posting a one-over par score through 12 holes on Thursday but found something with his putter over the next three days that had not been there recently.
While you are always going to need the winner to find upper-level DFS success, Johnson was required to have any chance at a real payout. The 36-year-old was owned in 20% of all GPP lineups, and his 133.50 points helped a lot of people turn his victory into cash, including our very own Joe Nicely, who took down the $35k Drive the Green contest for a cool $10,000.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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Rocket Mortgage Classic - PGA DFS Overview
Detroit Golf Club
7,300 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass (With Poa Annua Mix)
It would be a stretch to say that the PGA Tour's first trial run in Detroit last season was a success. The event missed out on getting most of the big names, and a tournament-winning score of 25-under par by Nate Lashley turned things into more of a shootout than most would care to see.
Unfortunately, a lot of those same issues might be on tap in its second go-around in 2020. Bryson DeChambeau does lead the field into the week, but an overall lack of star power can be felt throughout the board. To make matters worse, it doesn't appear as if the PGA has done much to enhance the track's difficulty. Perhaps the rough has been grown out partially, but I don't think it is going to do much to keep scores down as a whole, and I don't believe it is a stretch to say that the winning score could rival that of Lashley's in 2019.
Donald Ross originally designed Detroit Golf Club in 1914, and we still see the same tree-lined nature from the day it was built. The greens feature a combination of 85% Bentgrass and 15% Poa Annua, and it looks as if the putting surface will be set up to play quickly once again. Water will only come into play on one hole, but the entire venue has strategic bunkering throughout. All four par-fives are scorable and even feature eagle chances for those willing to take a few risks, but at the end of the day, golfers are going to need a hot iron and putter for four days to find success.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Detroit Golf Club | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 296 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 64% | 60% |
| GIR Percentage | 72% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 61% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.55 | 0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Tuesday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 6.5/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 12/1, Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton at 16/1, Hideki Matsuyama at 18/1 and Viktor Hovland at 22/1. Only Sungjae Im is currently listed at sub-30/1, and your defending champion, Nate Lashley, enters the week at a price tag of 125/1.
Key Stats
- Mixed Bent/Poa Putting +ATG 22.5%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
- Strokes Gained Approach 15%
- Proximity 125-175 Yards 12.5%
- Proximity 200+ Yards 10%
- Par-Four Average 10%
- Birdie or Better 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700)
If you want to use the excuse of popularity for why you will be fading Bryson DeChambeau this weekend in Detroit, I can get behind the narrative, but it is going to be extremely difficult to ignore the big-hitting American otherwise. DeChambeau is the definitive favorite to find the winner's circle and has posted six straight top-eight finishes during his recent run. A victory feels as if it is coming shortly for the 26-year-old, and I wouldn't put it past him getting it here.
Webb Simpson ($11,000)
Despite his victory at the RBC Heritage, Webb Simpson is trending towards being the least popular golfer above 10k at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Simpson's stats grade out better than anyone in the field over the past two years, and the American should always be considered a threat anytime he tees it up. My only takeaway from this group above $10,000 this weekend is that the venue is so accessible that it might minimize their advantage over the field, but Simpson looks ideally suited for this week's test.
Tyrrell Hatton ($10,700)
In the last six weeks of action on the PGA Tour, which does include right before the season came to a crashing halt, Tyrrell Hatton has most likely been your best golfer in the world. Yes, I know that is a broad statement to make with the way Bryson DeChambeau is currently playing, but Hatton's win at the Arnold Palmer carries a lot of weight with DeChambeau still looking for a more recent title than his victory at the Omega Dubai Classic in January of 2019. Some might be surprised to hear DeChambeau hasn't won worldwide in over 1.5 years, which makes Hatton's two victories in his past five starts that much more impressive. I don't think you can go that wrong with this week's big-three, so you might want to not overthink things and play the man that makes the most sense to you.
Patrick Reed ($10,500)
I realize I sound like a broken record right now with my love-affair for the top of the board. The majority of your win equity does seem to be located in this range, and it is more of a reason to construct a stars-and-scrubs lineup than usual. I don't have much I can say against Patrick Reed after the American posted a fifth-place showing in his debut at this event last season, and his short game prowess should make him a threat to find birdies in bunches over the four days.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200)
I don't dislike Hideki Matsuyama from a statistical standpoint at Detroit Golf Club, but I will have to draw a line in the sand somewhere at the top of the board. Matsuyama is 0-for-1 in cuts since the restart of the PGA season and did not look his typical self at the RBC Heritage. That isn't necessarily a reason to fade the Japanese sensation, but it is the biggest reason I can come up with for anyone priced above $10,000. I'd be much more interested in Matsuyama if he was the contrarian play of the week and wasn't projected to carry a 16 percent ownership total, but those two factors will have me underweight to the field. In fairness, I still will have him scattered throughout a few GPP builds.
Viktor Hovland ($10,000)
I'm not going to talk anyone out of playing Viktor Hovland, but I probably do have my biggest concerns with him out of the group. Three straight top-23 finishes since the restart shouldn't be scoffed at by any means, but we will need a top-10 finish from him this week to pay off his price tag. I don't know if I trust Hovland's putting and short game to not falter across the four days, and I feel like we probably end up with a disappointing finish outside the top-15 if we do decide to back him for the week. That isn't to say he doesn't have a chance to return value, but I'm willing to bet against him burning us with a top-five result.
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Mid-Priced DFS Players
Sungjae Im ($9,800)
Sungjae Im is number two in my model this week, but it is worth noting that he was BAD at the Travelers Championship. The 22-year-old should have missed the cut if we are being honest, and his two strokes lost with his irons were the second straight event that he failed to gain strokes with that facet of his game. Im's long-term statistics are what you would hope to see entering an event, but his short-term form does have me worried.
Tony Finau ($9,300)
If there is such a thing, Tony Finau was probably unlucky to miss the cut at the Travelers Championship. I had his first-round performance nearly 30 spots lower on the leaderboard than what should have resulted from his ball-striking numbers, and a sloppy day two had him miss the cut by just a stroke. Finau's game does look to set up nicely for Detroit Golf Club, and I'd have no hesitations about going back to the well after his faulty showing just a week ago.
Kevin Na ($9,100)
I am leaning towards placing Kevin Na into my core, but the hype is beginning to get a little out of control. I have Na ranked 16th in my model - five spots lower than where his betting/DFS values are located. I do believe there are pivot spots available if you decide to lessen your exposure to the 36-year-old, but I'd prefer to drop down in price (as opposed to moving up) if I did take that route.
Rory Sabbatini ($8,800)
Rory Sabbatini probably wouldn't be the first place I would start looking when talking about GPP upside, but his steady play as of late leaves him as an intriguing cash-game option to use at just $8,800. Sabbatini had a third-place showing at this venue in 2019 and hasn't finished outside the top-60 in his previous five events.
J.T. Poston ($8,700)
Two missed cuts and two top-10 showings are what we have on record for J.T. Poston's previous four starts. That level of erratic golf isn't necessarily a negative if we believe Poston can provide a top-10 showing at sub-10 percent ownership, which is well within the cards in Detroit. I'd avoid the American in cash-game lineups, but he should be considered as a semi-contrarian GPP upside play.
Doc Redman ($8,500)
I always like Doc Redman from a statistical sense, but I do have a fear that his $8,500 price tag might be too inflated for the time being. Redman's second-place showing here last season to go along with his two straight top-21 finishes in the last two weeks has the industry hyped to include him into their lineups, but 18 percent projected ownership is extremely lofty for someone that just as easily could finish outside the top-30 and perhaps even worse.
Lucas Glover ($8,400)
It has been a hot restart for Lucas Glover, who has posted three consecutive top-23 finishes since the return. I have Glover being slighted undervalued at his $8,400 price tag on DraftKings, and he is an option I would highly consider as a pivot option away from Doc Redman if you were considering that route in cash-games. However, both are a little riskier GPP plays given all the circumstances surrounding them.
Christian Bezuidenhout ($8,300)
Christian Bezuidenhout has a small sample size of information to work with because of the limited trackable rounds we have for him to date, but there is a lot to like when deciphering through his numbers. Ranked inside the top-eight compared to the field in strokes gained total, strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting, Bezuidenhout also brings with him the birdie-making style you would hope to see for an open track like Detroit Golf Club. There are some concerns that he doesn't play the par-fives well enough and has had some issues with his long irons, but his $8,300 price tag and sub-10 percent projected ownership does make him EXTREMELY intriguing for GPPs.
Adam Hadwin ($8,200)
I typically like Adam Hadwin more as a cash-game play when putting together my core, but the Canadian has real upside for all settings this week. Hadwin is ranked inside the top-20 compared to the field in both of the proximity ranges I am using this week to find quality iron players, and the 32-year-old is even cracking the top-10 of my statistical model. Those aren't things that happen often.
Erik Van Rooyen ($8,000)
I do believe there is a chance that Erik Van Rooyen might be a better outright bet than he is a DFS play because of his heightened volatility, but it is hard for me to ignore the South African in GPP settings. Van Rooyen's statistics should be taken with a grain salt because not only does he have limited PGA events to choose between, but his numbers did get slightly inflated when he competed at the WGC-Mexico - a venue that featured high altitude for all golfers involved. Still, though, Van Rooyen should be taken as a serious threat for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he has exhibited the upside to compete against the best in the world.
Low-Priced DFS Players
Maverick McNealy ($7,600)
All things being equal, would I rather select Harold Varner III? Sure. But the difference between Varner and Maverick McNealy is showing to be very minimal when you take into account Varner's nearly tournament-leading ownership projection of 18 percent. McNealy is a better birdie-maker than Varner, scores on the par-fives better and is someone you should consider if you want to pivot away from one of the chalkiest plays of the week.
Mark Hubbard ($7,200)
While Mark Hubbard has slowed down on his top-20 barrage since the restart, the 146th-ranked player in the world has still provided three made cuts in three weeks. The American is a quality putter on Poa greens and should be able to create opportunities this week at an easy Detroit venue.
Sebastian Munoz ($7,100)
Ranked seventh in my statistical model, Sebastian Munoz has missed three of his previous four cuts, but it is crucial to look at what exactly has been going on during that stretch. Munoz has gained strokes with his irons in eight of his past nine trackable tournaments, gained tee to green six of those times and has gained off the tee in his two most recent starts. A mixture of poor putting and around the green numbers have caused more combustibility than you could care to see, but the 27-year-old isn't as much of a liability as it would seem when we stretch the numbers out longer term. Munoz is 37th in my model when I look at putting on Bent/Poa greens + strokes gained around the green, and he jumps up inside the top-10 in birdie-making skills (both total and in par-five scoring).
Ryan Armour ($6,900)
I am not even sure most realize that Ryan Armour came 6th place during last week's Travelers Championship. It was a quiet display from the American, who shot rounds of 67,66,68 and 64, respectively. Armour experienced a six-tournament dry spell from January to March but has bounced back with two made cuts to begin the restarted portion of the season.
Bronson Burgoon ($6,200)
Volatile is the best way to describe Bronson Burgoon. His top-10 upside hasn't been there so far in 2020, but the American always gets a boost when given a venue that allows him a full complement of par-five holes. Burgoon isn't anything more than a shot in the dark option this far down the board, but he does have a 35th place showing in his one trip to Detroit.
Seamus Power ($6,000)
Are you feeling lucky? Maybe a little luck from the Irish will help lead you to fantasy riches this weekend. While you are far from guaranteed to get Power through the cut, his lack of recent golf is being too negatively weighted into his DFS price point. I have a fair price point being $6,600 on the 505th-ranked player in the world, and I think there is also some FRL appeal for those who want to take a shot at an astronomical number.
