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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Masters Tournament


Welcome back RotoBallers! It's been a couple of weeks since my last golf column, but with the NCAA Tournament now over, it's onto golf season. Cory Conners just won the Valero Texas Open. He had to qualify Monday just to get into the tournament and now with his win, he qualifies for the Masters Tournament.

In this article, I will be providing you with my  DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Masters. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. You can also track my selections against every other fantasy golf expert on dailyoverlay.com

If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.

Editor's Note: Get our full-season PGA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive Lineup Optimizer, DFS Tools, and weekly Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots. 

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The Masters - PGA DFS Overview

"A tradition like no other" returns to Augusta, GA for the Masters. The azaleas are blooming, the grass is picturesque, and the crowds will be in full force.

Augusta National Golf Club is a 7,435 yard par-72. There are four par-3's, 10 par-4's, and four par-5's. The par-5's are the four easiest holes on the course. Players make birdie on those holes more than 32.2 percent of the time.

The extremely fast greens are bentgrass and average in size.

 

Let's take a look at the stats:

Stat Augusta National GC Tour Average
Driving Distance -- 283
Driving Accuracy 67% 61%
GIR Percentage 61% 66%
Scrambling Percentage 52% 57%
Average three-putts per round 0.94 0.56

 

The average cut line the last seven years has been plus-five.

Player Strokes Gained Total (last five years)
Jordan Spieth 65.19
Justin Rose 53.19
Rory McIlroy 49.19
Paul Casey 38
Rickie Fowler 35.77

The defending champion is Patrick Reed. Previous winners are Sergio Garcia, Danny Willett, Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Watson, Charl Schwartzel, and Phil Mickelson.

The field is only 88 players deep, one of the smallest on tour. Top-50 players including ties will make the cut as well as anyone within 10 shots of the lead.

In Vegas, as of Monday on sportsbook.ag, Rory McIlroy is the outright favorite at 8-1. Dustin Johnson is 10-1. Justin Rose and Tiger Woods are both 14-1.

My custom stat model will be focusing on the following,

An interesting correlation to performing well at Augusta is players who played well at the Genesis Open.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000;

Rory McIlroy ($11,600) - McIlroy is my number-one ranked player this week and for good measure. Take a look at his tournament finishes since the start of the year (discluding the Match Play event); T-5, T-4, T-5, 2, T-6, 1 (the T-4 was at the Genesis and the win at THE PLAYERS). That is a lightning start, but now he must conquer all the demons at Augusta and complete the career grand slam. His final positions since 2014; T-8, 4, T-10, T-7, T-5. He's had several chances here, but has been unable to convert on Sunday. I think that changes this year. For the last 24 rounds in round 3+4 scoring, McIlroy is 11th. I hate taking the favorite, but the fact that I'm taking the favorite here to win says a lot.

Dustin Johnson ($11,300) - Great player, but his game doesn't translate to Augusta. He's had a nice history with three top 10's his last three appearances, but he hasn't really contended here. He can crush the ball, but it's his putting that does him in. He has been putting better of late, but that's on Bermuda greens. He is not a good putter on bentgrass.

Justin Rose ($10,800) - Rosey has picked his spots this year. He recorded a T-8 at THE PLAYERS, his last strokes-play event. Rose has had two runner-ups here, '15 and '17. I think he contends here, but falls short again.

Tiger Woods ($10,500) - Woods has only had one top-10 in 2019. He's going to be an extremely popular selection which is a reason I'd avoid. Another reason to avoid is his stats are just okay. He knows Augusta as well as anyone, but execution is a whole another department.

Justin Thomas ($10,200) - JT got off to a torrid start to 2019 with four top-10's in five tournaments, but his last two events have seen a T-30 at the Honda and a T-35 at THE PLAYERS. Now, he did finish runner-up at Riviera, which is a strong correlation to how someone will perform at Augusta. I still don't think he's ready to put four strong rounds together, but I do think he improves his finishing position for the fourth consecutive season, and place around T-13.

Jon Rahm ($10,000) - I've really liked what I've seen out of Rahm this season. His stats are very good, except for putting. His putting stats are simply not good and bad putting at Augusta will do you in. I also don't like that he's 35th in fourth round scoring, or that he's a headcase who can lose all composure after a bad shot.

 

Middle-Priced DFS Players

Rickie Fowler ($9,700) - I've picked him at the last six majors I'd say, so of course I'll go back on him here. He had a solid showing this past week at the Texas Open, T-17. It may not seem like a good showing, but with the Masters this week, you can be sure Fowler had Augusta on his mind all weekend. After last year's runner-up, he's ready to take aim at his first major title. He's been putting very well and is great on bentgrass greens.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) - My number-three ranked player started off slow on both the European Tour and PGA Tour, but after a month in the states, Fleetwood put it all together at the Arnold Palmer (T-3) and THE PLAYERS (T-5). This will be his third Masters. He was cut in 2017 and was T-17 last year. Besides for bad third and fourth round numbers, he has very good stats for this tournament.

Paul Casey ($9,000) - I was surprised to see him have the fourth-most strokes gained the last five years. I was also surprised to see him being first in strokes gained on par-5's this season. His last four outings at Augusta; T-6, T-4, 6, and T-15 last year. He won the Valspar Championship his last time out.

Jordan Spieth ($8,900) - He's been so bad this season, just take a look at his tournaments this year.

This past Texas Open was his first good tournament since a T-12 at the Dell Technologies Championship on Sept. 3, 2018. I've been saying this for some time, but Augusta is the only place that can really save Spieth. He's been remarkable here in his career; T-2, 1, T-2, T-11, and third last year. Spieth has some kind of special connection with Augusta where one birdie could lead to a flurry.

Francesco Molinari ($8,600) - The reigning British Open champ is 5/5 on cuts made for the season and a win at the Arnold Palmer. My favorite facet of Molinari's game is his ability to save par and avoid three-putts. He's 5/7 in cuts made at Augusta, yet his best finish is a T-19. But he's been on a tear since last summer and he will contend.

Xander Shauffele ($8,500) - He's my number-two ranked player this week. I was all over him at THE PLAYERS, but I blame Mike Francesca for him missing the cut. The X-Man usually brings it at the biggest events. He's had three top-10's in seven career majors including overcoming a final-round three-shot deficit at the 2018 WGC-HSBC Championship. His stats across the board are fantastic. I think he makes is presence known on Sunday, but a couple late bogeys give him a T-8 finish.

Tony Finau ($8,200) - He got a T-10 in his Masters debut last year after dislocating his ankle and popping it back in during the Par-3 contest. I mean, imagine what this bomber can do on two fully mobile ankles.

Cameron Smith ($7,400) - The 25-year-old Aussie will look to build off a T-5 at last year's Masters. Smith will need to be better than his 58th ranking for strokes gained: par-5 scoring. If he can get some birdies on those, he'll push for a T-15.

Charles Howell III ($7,000) - This will be the 39-year-old's first time at Augusta since a T-19 in 2012. He comes in off nine consecutive cuts made. Howell III also ranks in the top-five in several driving stats.

 

Low-Priced DFS Players

Charley Hoffman ($6,800) - Fresh off a solo runner-up at the Texas Open, Hoffman looks to make it 6/6 in cuts made at the Masters.

Kevin Kisner ($6,700) - A perfect 3/3 in cuts made as well as nine straight cuts made on tour. He's also a phenomenal putter on these types of greens.

Jimmy Walker ($6,600) - Bad stats but his bentgrass putting can get him to a perfect 6/6 in cuts made at the Masters.

Fred Couples ($6,200) - The 1992 Masters champ has made 30/33 cuts here. Wow.

 

Custom Rankings

 

Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer

Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.

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