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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Arnold Palmer Invitational

Welcome back RotoBallers! Unknown Keith Mitchell won the Honda Classic (-9) edging out Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler. It was the 27-year-old's first PGA Tour victory.

In this article, I will be providing you with my  DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. You can also track my selections against every other fantasy golf expert on dailyoverlay.com

If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.

Featured Promo: Golf is back! Come join the fun and win big with RotoBaller. Get our full-season PGA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off! Our exclusive DFS Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections and weekly DFS/betting articles! Sign Up Now!

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Arnold Palmer Invitational - PGA DFS Overview

The Florida swing continues heading north to Orlando, Fla. Bay Hill Golf Course is a par-72, 7,419-yard course. The greens are Bermuda, fast, and are slightly larger than average.

There are four par-3's, 12 par-4's, and four par-5's. The par-5's are the four easiest holes on the course.

Let's take a look at the stats.

Stat Bay Hill Tour Average
Driving Distance 278 283
Driving Accuracy 66% 61%
GIR Percentage 63% 66%
Scrambling Percentage 58% 57%
Average three-putts per round 0.61 0.55

The average cut line the last seven years has been +2.43.

Player Strokes Gained Total (last five years)
Henrik Stenson 47.03
Rory McIlroy 41.37
Francesco Molinari 37.97
Jason Day 30.37
Marc Leishaman 30.24

The defending champion is Rory McIlroy. Previous winner are, Marc Leishman, Jason Day, Matt Every, Tiger Woods back-to-back, and Ernie Els.

In Vegas, as of Tuesday on sportsbook.ag, Rory McIlroy is the 7-1 favorite. Justin Rose is 10-1, Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler are 11-1. Jason Day is 14-1 and Bryson DeChambeau is 16-1.

My custom stat model will be focusing on stats from the start of the new year; Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (30%), SG: Par-5 (25%), and SG: Tee-2-Green (15%), SG:P 10-15 feet (10%), SG:P 15-20 feet (10%), SG:P 20-25 feet (10%),


Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are five four players this week priced above $10,000;

Rory McIlroy ($11,400) - McIlroy is quietly putting together a very strong start to 2019. He's not playing every week, but when he is, he's playing fantastic golf. He was T-4 at the Genesis Open and a solo runner-up at the WGC-Mexico. While this is McIlroy's first event in Florida this year, since 2014, he's the third-best in terms of strokes gained in the Sunshine State.

Tiger Woods ($11,100) - Withdrew

Justin Rose ($10,700) - Rosey has not played in a month, but after reading this article about him, I'm all-in. Golf Digest points to players who can make putts outside of 10 feet, to perform well here (hence, why I used all those putting stats in my custom stat model). With those stats, he's number one in my rankings. He played the Arnold Palmer Invt'l the last three years; T-9, T-13, third.

Rickie Fowler ($10,400) - Off a T-2 last week. Has back-to-back top-15's at this event. Watching him putt can make you lose your mind sometimes, but he's actually been a good putter this year. He's not however a good performer in ball striking, par-5 scoring, or tee-2-green.

Brooks Koepka ($10,200) - Last week I said he only performs well in majors, and then he goes out and finishes runner-up. But this week, he won't play well. His putting outside of 10-feet is bad. Koepka also hasn't played well here; cut in 2017, withdrew in 2015, T-26 in 2014.


Middle-Priced DFS Players

Patrick Reed ($8,900) - His driving numbers aren't good, but he can putt. Had a T-7 here last year and T-52 in 2014. Took last week off after a T-14 in Mexico.

Charles Howell III ($8,600) - Good stats in each category I care about this week. He's made last five cuts at this tournament. Howell's last two tournaments have seen him finish sixth at the Genesis and T-14 in Mexico.

Ian Poulter ($8,000) - You never know what you'll get out of the fiery Brit, but I know he'll be making the cut after eight consecutive made cuts here. He last played in Mexico where he finished T-3 and his stats are good all-around.

Michael Thompson ($7,600) - Thompson has had a great season to date; T-10 at Pebble Beach, T-7 at the Genesis, and T-16 last week at the Honda. Just like the rest of the players, he's a good putter and his ball striking stats are good. This will be his debut here.

Kevin Kisner ($7,200) - To continue the theme, he's another good putter. The last four years, he's made the cuts in the odd year and even recorded a T-2 in 2017. He's picked his spots this season, but in the last three tournaments, has not finished outside the top-30.

J.T. Poston ($7,100) - Another good putter and while he hasn't played this tournament yet, he's on a good run. He's 5/5 in cuts made this year and most recently, was T-36 last week at the Honda Classic.


Low-Priced DFS Players

Brian Gay ($7,000) - Made 5/6 cuts this year including a T-20 last week and a T-7 at Pebble. This year, he ranks third in SG:P 10-15 feet, and fifth in 15-20 feet. Also finished T-22 last year.

Aaron Baddeley ($6,600) - I can't believe I'm going with him, but he's a really good putter. His last time out was the Puerto Rico Open where he finished T-2.

Vaughn Taylor ($6,500) - He's made his last two cuts including a T-9 at the Genesis. He missed cut here in 2016 and finished T-23 in 2017.


Custom Rankings

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