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Andrew Bua examines the biggest contact rate risers and fallers after Week 22's action in the baseball world and provides fantasy baseball owners with advice on who to add.
RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.
This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)
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Contact Rate Risers
Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN): 77% Season Contact Rate, 91% L7 Contact Rate (+14%)
Now in his third Major League season, Eugenio Suarez has quietly put together his most productive campaign yet. With an increased contact rate the last week, will he be an even more valuable asset to fantasy owners vying for a title?
With the increase in contact Suarez has seen a batting average spike, but unfortunately he hasn’t seen much else. That’s more a product of his .429 BABIP than anything else. In fact, despite the contact rate increase, Suarez’s slugging percentage over the last week is lower than his figure for the season (.421 vs. .430). He has only two extra-base hits over this span, both of them doubles. Suarez simply isn’t doing a whole lot to merit faith in an upcoming hot streak. His batting average lately is great for sure, but he shouldn’t be relied upon for anything else right now.
Cesar Hernandez (2B, PHI): 81% Season Contact Rate, 94% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)
In a season where not a ton has gone right for the Phillies, Cesar Hernandez has been a major bright spot. He hits for average, gets on base, and swipes bags – is he going to do even more as he makes more contact?
While he does have one home run over the past week, only his fifth of the season, Hernandez hasn’t done much with a .188 batting average and .278 on-base percentage. However, his lack of results seem to be a factor of bad luck. That’s what a .154 BABIP over that time span will do to you. He’s hitting the ball hard lately (35.7% hard hit ball rate), and knocking a good amount of line drives (23.1%), and so that luck should be turning around soon. Without actual results it’s tough to have much confidence here, but given his peripherals he’s bound to succeed soon so long as he keeps making good contact.
Jason Heyward (OF, CHC): 85% Season Contact Rate, 95% L7 Contact Rate (+10%)
To say the least, Jason Heyward has had a disappointing first season in the Windy City. He has shown signs of life recently though; does that indicate he’ll finally return some value to fantasy owners down the stretch?
For one thing, Heyward’s BABIP over the last week (.333) was right in line with where it was last season (.329) rather than where it’s been all year (.268). He’s hitting the ball hard (37.5% hard hit ball rate) and lifting it more than before (56.3% fly ball rate vs. 33% for the season). This has led to two doubles and a home run during Heyward’s contact rate increase. Is he suddenly going to play at an MVP-caliber level? No, probably not. But clearly Heyward is producing more right now than he has all season long, and if you’re one of his many depressed owners this season than you should look to take advantage of it while it lasts.
Contact Rate Fallers
Cameron Maybin (OF, DET): 82% Season Contact Rate, 71% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)
From a batting average and on-base percentage perspective, Cameron Maybin is having a fantastic year with figures of .329 and .400, respectively. Does his recent decrease in contact rate mean fantasy owners shouldn’t count on similar numbers down the stretch?
Fortunately, it doesn’t look as though Maybin is headed for any kind of slump. He may be making less contact as he’s striking out more lately (28.6% vs. 16% for the season), but when he does hit the ball, he’s hitting it hard (33.3% hard hit ball rate vs. 22.2% for the season). This has resulted in a .389/.476/.611 slash line to go along with a double, a homer, three runs scored, seven RBI and one stolen base over the last week. As of now, it doesn’t look like Maybin’s lower contact rate means anything negative for his production so long as he keeps hitting the ball hard.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, TOR): 80% Season Contact Rate, 69% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)
Troy Tulowitzki owners have been pretty pleased with him as of late, as he’s been productive and healthy (for the most part) this summer. With a downtick in contact rate recently, however, those same owners may start bashing their heads against the wall with the streaky shortstop.
Over his last 25 plate appearances, Tulo is only hitting .190/.320/.238 to go along with only one run scored and one RBI. His 12.6% swinging strike rate is significantly up from that number for the season (9.1%), which has lead to a strikeout rate of 24% (20.8% for the season). Even when he has been making contact the last week, it’s rarely been good as his hard hit ball rate is only 13.3%. Simply put, Tulowitzki isn’t seeing the ball well right now. He seems to become more and more streakier as he gets older, and right now is a case of the bad Tulo. Hopefully he’ll turn it around for owners in the hunt for a championship, but right now you should stay away from him.
Brandon Belt (1B, SF): 76% Season Contact Rate, 67% L7 Contact Rate (-9%)
Brandon Belt is having a typical Brandon Belt-type season (minus the lack of stolen bases): quietly productive with a decent batting average, high OBP, and good slugging percentage. Does his fall in contact rate this week mean owners shouldn’t expect Belt’s trademark stats in September?
Over the years, Belt has also proven to be a streaky player. Right now, he’s definitely in a slump. Always a high OBP guy, over the last week he’s only been getting on base at a .300 clip to go along with a .222 batting average. All this, and his BABIP is .019 points higher (.364) than it is for the season (.345). It’s never a good sign when a players’ numbers are bad yet he’s already getting luckier than usual on balls in play. It won’t take much for Belt to turn it around, but right now it doesn’t look great for the Giants first basemen.
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