July 6, 2016

Andrew Bua examines the biggest contact rate risers and fallers after week 14's action in the baseball world and provides fantasy baseball owners with advice on who to add.

RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.

This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium MLB Subscription for only $1.99 per week. We have all the tools to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Sleeper Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, PLUS Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

Contact Rate Risers

Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE): 82% Season Contact Rate, 95% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)

Jason Kipnis has always been a guy who makes a lot of contact with a 82.6% career rate. When you see a guy who is already high contact hitter show up on this list, it’s worth looking at as it may indicate a hot streak is upcoming. Unfortunately for Kipnis, that doesn’t look to be the case.

Kipnis’ BABIP and batting average have always wildly fluctuated despite a consistent contact rate that has ranged between 81.7% - 83.8%. His lower .308 BABIP this season is due in-part to his career-high 36.1% fly ball rate. Over the past week during his contact rate increase, his fly ball rate is even higher at 48%, meaning any batting average increase probably isn’t legitimate. His 28% hard hit ball rate during this span is also nearly 6% below his figure for the season. Kipnis may be making more contact, but nothing else indicates a hot streak is in the works here. Don’t buy in.

Brett Lawrie (2B, CWS): 72% Season Contact Rate, 84% L7 Contact Rate (+12%)

In the midst of what will likely be his best full Major League season, Lawrie’s recent contact rate jump has fantasy owners salivating even more. Lawrie started his career as a high-contact rate player, surpassing 82.1% in three of his first four seasons, but that figure has dropped to the mid-70’s the last two years. His recent contact surge, however, may indicate good things are on the way.

Lawrie’s fly balls have been way up all year, but the past week they’re down 15.9%. His line drives are also up a ton the past week (36.8%), and he’s hitting the ball harder (36.8% vs. 28.9% for the season). Lawrie’s 2016 BABIP may be high by his standards (.335), but he was producing well before this contact rate jump regardless. If he can at least somewhat maintain the control with which he's demonstrating when making contact, he'll still produce at a solid level even when the contact rate regresses. He’s absolutely a player to buy while he’s locked in like this.

Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, NYY): 86% Season Contact Rate, 97% L7 Contact Rate (+11%)

Jacoby Ellsbury’s batting average and BABIP are slightly up in 2016, with his contact rate higher than 2015 but lower than every other season of his career. A whopping 97% contact rate over the last week is unsustainable, but one would think with his upticks across the board he’ll produce even when that contact rate falls a bit. That might not be the case.

Ellsbury hit the ball very hard this week (37% vs 27.7% in 2016), and he’s transformed his fly balls into ground balls over that span. The overall results haven’t been there (.267/.389/.333 slash line), but his .296 BABIP (.318 for his career) means some bad luck is at play. When the numbers say a player should be better than he’s actually been, he’s always worth some consideration. If you can buy low you’ll probably be rewarded for it to an extent, but without the results actually there you shouldn’t be knocking down the door to get him.

Contact Rate Fallers

Joe Mauer (1B/DH, MIN), 84% Season Contact Rate, 66% L7 Contact Rate (-18%)

Outside of mostly high OBPs the last few seasons, Joe Mauer hasn’t been a tremendous fantasy asset. The trademark high batting averages are gone and any further signs of decline are concerning. His 84% contact rate in 2016 would be his career-low if not for 2013, so is the former American League MVP losing even more value?

We know Mauer’s contact rate is down, but what happens when he does hit the ball? His 33.3% hard hit ball rate is his best since 2013, and his 28.1% line drive rate would actually be a career-high. Given his higher-than-usual peripherals but lack of production regardless, his severe drop in contact rate could indicate those peripherals will regress (meaning even worse production). There’s little upside here –if you’ve been riding it out, Mauer’s not likely to produce any better than he has been, and he could get even worse. It’s time to sell (if you haven’t already).

Brandon Moss (1B/OF, STL), 68% Season Contact Rate, 57% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)

Like many other players previously, Brandon Moss is in the midst of a career-season in St. Louis. With a .251/.340/.562 slash line with 17 homers in 75 games, Moss is on pace to have his best year since 2013. Fantasy owners have been beyond pleased with his production so far, but what does his slipping contact rate mean for the rest of the year?

Thankfully, it probably doesn’t mean much. Moss has been enjoying a resurgence this season with a contact rate that would be the third-worst of his career. He hasn’t gotten overly lucky on balls in play either, his .297 BABIP would be his highest since 2013 and is only .05 above his career figure. Thus, Moss’ comeback doesn’t have much to do with contact rate or luck. Don’t let the recent slip discourage you from keeping and/or looking to acquire him.

Jonathan Lucroy (C, MIL), 82% Season Contact Rate, 71% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)

If you’re a Jonathan Lucroy owner this season, you’ve been sitting pretty. Now healthy, Lucroy is looking a lot more like the 2014 version of himself rather than the 2015 letdown. With a contact rate that’s dipped 11% recently, should fantasy owners cruising at the catcher position be concerned?

The short answer is no, but not with 100% confidence. Lucroy’s 82% overall contact rate would be a career-low by 2.4%. While that is similar to the analysis provided for Brandon Moss above, Lucroy’s BABIP isn’t. His .338 BABIP would be a full season-high, .24 points higher than his career figure. With a career-low contact rate and a BABIP that is likely to at least regress somewhat, it’s certainly possible a slump may be in the works for Lucroy. That being said, is he going to slip to the extent that you should look to trade a stud at fantasy’s scarcest position? Unless someone is paying you a king’s ransom, a midseason for funk for Lucroy is no reason to sell.

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