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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 4 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
It was a rough week for the RotoBaller readers group as a whole. EAGLESYANKEES77 led the way with 44 points. Only four other entries got 40 or more. Strangely enough, there wasn't a tie in points this week until 38 points (seventh place). That's what makes the confidence points so interesting! The big week from EAGLESYANKEES77 puts them in the top spot with 128 points. 50Centi is just one point behind. 134 teams & not 1 good 1 and mr_richard are tied for third with 122 points.
IUBB1! and big papi10 are tied for fifth with 121 points. wpepper71 is one point behind that. keepingthelittlehumansalive, Weinhund's Winners, me, and dlobo4 round out the top 10. There is a little more separation in the group this week. 20 points separates first from 20th place.
Thanks to a rough week all around, my nine points on Washington didn't hurt as much as it should have. I knew last week was going to be difficult. Week 4 looks a little bit easier on the surface. Let's get to it!
College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you want to play the spread version as well, you can join that group here.
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
(1) Oklahoma State over Utah
This one is a candidate to be moved. Cameron Rising is good to go for Utah, but what exactly does that mean? With an injury history like his, it's hard to trust. If Rising is out for some reason, I'm moving it up. I've gone back and forth on this one a few times already. I do expect a close game with the combined age of the starting quarterbacks being more than my age.
Fun fact: The combined age of the starting QBs in Saturday's Utah-Oklahoma State game is 49.
By comparison, the combined age of the starting QBs in Sunday's Colts-Bears game is 44. pic.twitter.com/cO7hLZh9Rx
— College Sports Only (@CollegeSportsO) September 16, 2024
(2) Rutgers over Virginia Tech
At this point, I trust Kyle Monangai more than I trust Kyron Drones. I might move this up a slot or three to try and gain a few points on the public. The Hokies are currently picked at 78%. If I can pick up a couple of points on the field, that feels like a good proposition.
(3) Iowa over Minnesota
Iowa and Minnesota meet for the 118th time on Saturday. They have played for the greatest traveling trophy, 98.3-pound bronze Floyd of Rosedale, annually since 1936. The first Floyd battle took place in 1935 for a live 200-pound pig. He later died of cholera on a Minnesota farm. pic.twitter.com/glrZU3v7Zq
— Scott Dochterman (@ScottDochterman) September 16, 2024
It's a little early for a Floyd game, but I'm all for having these big rivalry games interspersed throughout the season. Who didn't love the Victory Bell, Apple Cup, and Civil War all on the same weekend? We need ways to continuously make college football fun since the morons of the NCAA want to turn it into the NFL...
Minnesota looked good in shutting down Nevada and their three backs and did a good job on North Carolina's Omarion Hampton. The issue is that they are playing a mirror image of themselves. Only in this mirror, Iowa's defense is better and so is the offense (for now).
(4) Arizona State over Texas Tech
Tech looked good, but it was against a notoriously bad defense. I won't say that Arizona State's defense is world-beaters, but they have held their own. Having a wrecking ball like Cam Skattebo in the backfield can only help Arizona State keep the ball away from that offense.
(5) TCU over SMU
The Kevin Jennings era begins in earnest in the Battle for the Iron Skillet. My question is: what happens if Jennings struggles? The handling of this situation destroyed the confidence of Preston Stone. Can he get it back? TCU is not back to where they were a couple of years ago, but this offense looks organized this year. That's a huge leap from 2023.
This will be the 103rd meeting of the ‘Battle for the Iron Skillet’ rivalry between TCU and SMU since the series started in 1915.
TCU has won 8 of the past 10 matchups. The last time SMU won at home was in 2005.#GoFrogs #PonyUpDallas #TCUvsSMUhttps://t.co/SSuiqWz9S4 pic.twitter.com/en5mPWYk5V
— Winsipedia (@Winsipedia) September 16, 2024
This, unlike some rivalries, has a close series history. It appears that we have two teams going in opposite directions which is going to make this a close game. The SMU offense hasn't shown a lot of explosiveness with Jennings yet, but if they do, they could win this game. I might move it down. The talent is there in Dallas.
(6) Tennessee over Oklahoma
I want to think that Oklahoma has a chance, but I know better. Tennessee is what Bob Stoops hoped to build at Oklahoma, but the offense and defense never game together like this in the same season. Oklahoma's defense is good this year and Jackson Arnold improved this week. The issue is that we still can't run the ball. Tennessee is the better team right now and they will show it, even in Norman.
(7) California over Florida State
This may seem harsh, but Cal has one of the best backs in the country in Jaydn Ott and Fernando Mendoza makes up for what he lacks in talent with grit. He's a leader and he's only getting better. We can't say that about Florida State. They looked better against Memphis, but they need to improve more quickly to face a team like Cal. They haven't.
HISTORY: Florida State is the first preseason top 10 team in history to start 0-3 against three unranked opponents.
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) September 14, 2024
(8) USC over Michigan
Jo'Quavious Marks is built to give Michigan problems. The USC defense can't rival the Michigan defense, but Miller Moss definitely makes better decisions than anyone Michigan can throw out there at quarterback.
Watch this and tell me USC is not serious about defense.
Thats the defensive coordinator D’anton Lynn lighting up his guys after stopping Utah State from scoring late in the 4th quarter -up by 48 mind you✌️pic.twitter.com/PPuj9Wrso1
— Trojan Football ✌️fan (@TrojanFBx) September 9, 2024
This is exactly what USC needed after the Alex Grinch era. I watched enough of Grinch at Oklahoma to know that his schemes often weren't bad, but they weren't conducive to sustained success either. The USC defense means business now, but that doesn't mean they aren't without holes.
I can't trust Michigan -- even at home -- until they show some consistency on offense. This was the first year since 1945 that it took Michigan three weeks to score a rushing touchdown. USC has a better offense and a capable defense. That's enough to win in the Big House in 2024.
(9) Toledo over Western Kentucky
Toledo will get got, but it won't be here. Western Kentucky's run defense is improved, but they allowed 456 passing yards to Nicholas Vattiato last week. Tucker Gleason is throwing more, but Toledo also has a three-headed monster at running back.
Gone are the days when Kareem Hunt and Bryant Koback had massive workloads and carried the Rockets to victory. Now they are riding Jacquez Stuart, Willie Shaw III, and Connor Walendzak depending on the game situation. They can and will overwhelm the Hilltopper defense.
(10) Virginia over Coastal Carolina
Let's not make this any more difficult than it has to be. CCU struggled to beat a really bad Temple team. Virginia's dogfight with Maryland was expected. Virginia's wins over Richmond and Wake, while sloppy, are far better than struggling with Temple.
Well hello there Malachi Fields
? Averaging 8/124 through 2 games pic.twitter.com/lvJSOBHuS7
— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) September 12, 2024
Oh...and this guy plays for Virginia. You can't watch Malachi Fields and not be entertained.
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