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Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 2 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.
This is the second week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 2, we saw stat lines such as the Atlanta Falcons tight end room seeing four targets, the Miami Dolphins wide receiver room combining for 372 receiving yards, and the Indianapolis Colts running back room combining for 12 carries.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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- Running back (RB) rankings
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- Tight end (TE) rankings
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- FLEX rankings
- Dynasty rankings
Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
New Orleans Saints Running Backs
Pete Carmichael Jr.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Saints | 21.59 | 77.24 | 0.29 | 4.41 | 6.12 | 36.76 | 0.29 |
| Pete Carmichael Prior (209 Games) | 22.71 | 101.84 | 0.81 | 7.33 | 9.28 | 57.71 | 0.31 |
| Saints RBs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 | 86 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
The New Orleans Saints running back room was once again disappointing in Week 2, combining for 16 carries, 86 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, four receptions, four targets, 15 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, on the season this group has totaled 29 carries (14.5 per game), 147 rushing yards (73.5 per game), zero rushing touchdowns (zero per game), eight receptions (four per game), nine targets (4.5 per game), and 23 receiving yards (11.5 per game).
Given that Pete Carmichael Jr. has been a part of many running back-friendly offenses since he became the New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator in 2009 and star running back Alvin Kamara was out, it's likely that we see better performances from this group in the future.
Fantasy players this impacts: Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram II, Dewayne Washington, Tony Jones Jr.
Indianapolis Colts Running Backs
Frank Reich & Marcus Brady
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Colts | 25.24 | 130.53 | 1.24 | 4.82 | 6.65 | 39.88 | 0.18 |
| Frank Reich Prior (129 Games) | 23.96 | 104.64 | 0.73 | 5.53 | 7.24 | 43.68 | 0.19 |
| Colts RBs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 | 51 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
The Indianapolis Colts running back room had a disappointing performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2 as they combined for 12 carries, 51 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, five receptions, six targets, 46 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 46 carries (23 per game), 216 rushing yards (108 per game), one rushing touchdown (0.5 per game), 15 receptions (7.5 per game), 19 targets (9.5 per game), 110 receiving yards (55 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game). There's no doubt that the Colts' backs disappointed last week, but because of their strong Week 1 performance their season totals are around what we'd expect from a Frank Reich running back room.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Deon Jackson
Baltimore Ravens Running Backs
Greg Roman
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Ravens | 18.88 | 79.35 | 0.82 | 3.18 | 4.12 | 20.47 | 0.06 |
| Greg Roman Prior (131 Games) | 23.16 | 104.51 | 0.81 | 2.48 | 3.45 | 19.76 | 0.10 |
| Ravens RBs vs. Miami Dolphins | 14 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
For the second week in a row the Baltimore Ravens running back room lands on this list. In Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins, the Ravens backfield combined for 14 carries, 28 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, zero receptions, zero targets, zero receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 29 carries (14.5 per game), 74 rushing yards (37 per game), zero rushing touchdowns (zero per game), three receptions (1.5 per game), three targets (1.5 per game), 22 receiving yards (11 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the year.
It's easy to understand why the team didn't utilize their backs a ton last week with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards out once again, but it's still surprising to see the level of how little they utilized. Overall, expect this group to improve in the coming weeks as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards get healthy.
Fantasy players this impacts: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Mike Davis, Kenyan Drake
Atlanta Falcons Tight Ends
Arthur Smith & Dave Ragone
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Falcons | 6.35 | 9.29 | 79.71 | 0.29 |
| Arthur Smith Prior (49 Games) | 5.67 | 8.22 | 66.73 | 0.49 |
| Falcons TEs vs. Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
Kyle Pitts and the Atlanta Falcons tight end room have not lived up to expectations in the first couple of weeks in the season. Against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, this group combined for three receptions on four targets for 24 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled seven receptions (3.5 per game) on 15 targets (7.5 per game) for 54 receiving yards (27 per game) and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game).
Comparing these numbers with Arthur Smith's career tight end room averages it is clear that there is a good buy-low opportunity on Kyle Pitts right now and if you have him on your team you should continue to be patient.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kyle Pitts, Anthony Firkser, and Parker Hesse
Minnesota Vikings Running Backs
Kevin O'Connell & Wes Phillips
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Vikings | 23.71 | 102.41 | 0.53 | 4.29 | 5.71 | 28.12 | 0.06 |
| Kevin O'Connell Prior (49 Games) | 21.84 | 93.80 | 0.57 | 3.63 | 5.10 | 29 | 0.14 |
| Vikings RBs vs. Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 0 |
The Minnesota Vikings running back room disappointed on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles, combining for eight carries, 25 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, seven receptions, 11 targets, 26 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, on the season this group has totaled 36 carries (18 per game), 151 rushing yards (75.5 per game), zero rushing touchdowns (zero per game), 10 receptions (five per game), 16 targets (eight per game), 43 receiving yards (21.5 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game).
Kevin O'Connell's running back rooms have historically been utilized at a below-average level, but Monday's performance was on the low side even for him. Expect the Vikings running backs to get more usage on the ground and put up better fantasy numbers in the future.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Kene Nwangwu, Ty Chandler
Decline Ahead?
As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Miami Dolphins Wide Receivers
Mike McDaniel & Frank Smith
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Dolphins | 12.37 | 19.18 | 146.41 | 0.84 |
| Mike McDaniel Prior (17 Games) | 10.65 | 17.18 | 163.35 | 1 |
| Dolphins WRs vs. Baltimore Ravens | 25 | 36 | 372 | 5 |
The Miami Dolphins wide receiver room went off against the Baltimore Ravens combining for 25 receptions on 36 targets for 372 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 40 receptions (20 per game) on 58 targets (29 per game) for 563 receiving yards (281.5 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (three per game) on the season.
These numbers are significantly higher than Mike McDaniel's wide receiver room with the 2021 San Francisco 49ers as well as the 2021 Dolphins' wide receiver room. Any wide receiver room with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is going to put up numbers, but the current level of production isn't going to be sustainable long-term if the past is any indication.
Fantasy players this impacts: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Trent Sherfield, Erik Ezukanma, and Cedrick Wilson Jr.
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