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Who were the biggest breakouts of 2023 at the quarterback position? Andrew Ball identifies who broke out and who will continue their success into 2024.
The value of quarterbacks in the fantasy football realm has never been higher. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson are or have been in the MVP conversation more often than not.
The next generation of signal callers are all pushing to have their names listed among the best. First, they have to put together a breakout campaign. Then, it's all about sustaining that excellence year after year.
Below, we'll look at the 2023 group of quarterback breakouts and discuss whether they'll continue to be reliable options for the remainder of their career.
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Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
The face of the quarterback breakouts in 2023: Jordan Love. However, the relationship between Love and fantasy managers wasn't always reciprocated.
The season began with back-to-back three-touchdown performances for the new full-time starter in Green Bay. Opposing football fans across the country began to worry. Have the Packers done it again? Will they have another decade with a Hall of Fame quarterback under center?
Looking past the touchdown total, the rest of Love's initial box scores were far from elite. In four out of his first five games, the former first-round pick completed less than 60 percent of his passes. In half of the first six games, he didn't reach the 200-yard mark. The worst stat line of his career (in games he started) was the 16-for-30, 182-yard, three-interception debacle in a loss to Las Vegas in Week 5. The magic wore off.
Like many young quarterbacks, time and repetition are allies. In Week 11 against Los Angeles, he tossed a career-best 322 yards and two touchdowns. From then until the end of the season, Love threw just one interception, and in only one contest did he not have multiple scores. That led to him being the QB2 in fantasy football over the stretch.
Romeo Doubs hauls it in!
📺: #KCvsGB on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/CQH1cx3gZS pic.twitter.com/LRKNUpuBTB— NFL (@NFL) December 4, 2023
But is it sustainable? Love's 5.5% touchdown rate in 2023 is a smidge higher than Tom Brady's career touchdown percentage (5.4%). Aaron Rodgers (6.2%), Patrick Mahomes (6.1%), Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson (both at 5.9%), and Deshaun Watson (5.6%) are the active quarterbacks with a better career touchdown rate than Love's 2023 number. That's eight MVP and five Super Bowl trophies (plus the lack of Watson's contributions) on that list. If Love sustains his play from the end of the season, he may be adding some hardware to his trophy shelf.
Love was deadly in play-action passing situations (66.4% completion percentage) but struggled in other areas with his accuracy. His weapons should only improve next season, which could remedy the accuracy issues. The Packers were the league's youngest team in 2023. The wide receivers and tight ends led the way. Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft, the five players with the most receptions for Green Bay, were all in their first or second seasons. That doesn't include second-year wideout Christian Watson, who battled injuries for the majority of the season, and rookie Bo Melton who delivered 211 yards in the final three games of the regular season.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Breakout campaigns can come in year two, three, or even year 16. If teams are lucky, they'll have their quarterback break out in their debut campaign. The Texans were that fortunate.
C.J. Stroud finished the season with the most passing yards per game (273.9) among qualified candidates. He also had the lowest interception rate (one percent) in the league. Toss in 23 touchdowns, a trio of game-winning drives, and a playoff victory and it's no surprise that he captured 48 out of 50 first-place votes for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Fellow OROY winner Cam Newton believes Stroud had the greatest rookie season ever, topping himself.
“We didn’t make it to the playoffs, we didn’t win. You won and you made it look sexy, you were standing on business. It wasn’t even your performance as much as you defying the odds. You did it with so much class, so much grace.” - Cam Newton
It's hard to argue against Newton. Everything that rookie quarterbacks typically struggle with, Stroud excelled. His passer rating versus both zone and man defenses rank in the top five. His 49.2% deep ball completion percentage also lands in the top five. We've already broken down his outstanding lack of interceptions and, while not elite, his catchable pass rate while under pressure (49.6%) was nothing to scoff at.
Stroud can improve on his red zone passing and slight tweaks to his game will improve his accuracy. If he continues to grow alongside young wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, he may soon find himself hoisting an MVP trophy, just as Newton did.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
We know what C.J. Stroud is. Fellow 2023 rookie Anthony Richardson is mostly still a mystery. But the brief glimpses into his potential have fantasy football enthusiasts giddy.
Richardson finished as the QB4 in Week 1 (21.9 points). Despite playing under a third of the snaps in Week 2, the rookie out of Florida dropped 17.7 points (two rushing touchdowns). He sat out in Week 3 but returned for the QB2 performance (29.6 points) in Week 4. Again in Week 5, he was knocked out of the game with a shoulder injury and did not reach the midway point of the game. Just like that, his season was over.
His physical traits won't be a question moving forward. His athleticism score is among the best of any player in NFL history, let alone quarterbacks. Health and passing accuracy will be the points of emphasis for Richardson in year two.
When discussing the former, it should be noted that Richardson just recently began throwing again. The fourth-overall pick suffered a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder. The layoff may seem lengthy but he's reportedly ahead of his recovery schedule by several weeks.
#QB1💪🏽 pic.twitter.com/2N4oaRG5yf
— deiric jackson (@djackson_legacy) February 13, 2024
Richardson completed just a hair under 60 percent of his passes for 577 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in his limited action. His rushing production is what propelled him to great fantasy totals. Fantasy scores and real-life football are vastly different. If Richardson can't stay healthy (it has been an issue throughout college as well) or improve the aerial aspect of his game, he may not maintain his status as the franchise quarterback in Indianapolis. Fortunately, the Colts have provided him with the proper weapons to succeed.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Did Brock Purdy break out at the tail end of 2022 or was 2023 his real emergence? From Week 14 of 2022 (when he picked up his first start) through the end of the regular season, Purdy was the QB9 for fantasy football. He also didn't lose a game until an elbow injury removed his ability to throw in the NFC Championship game.
Despite his success, fantasy managers weren't sold on Mr. Irrelevant (the injury played a role). Trey Lance, after all, cost San Francisco a boatload of draft capital. Wouldn't they give the former third-overall pick another chance now that he was healthy? Head coach Kyle Shanahan shut that down quickly in training camp, but Purdy still was being drafted as the QB16 last summer. In some single-quarterback redraft leagues, Purdy wasn't even selected.
Yet, he led the league in yards per attempt, deep ball completion percentage, play action completion percentage, and QBR, to name a few. Purdy's fifth-most passing yards and third-most passing touchdowns led him to finish as the QB6 in 2023.
This Brock Purdy-Brandon Aiyuk 19 yard touchdown had the lowest completion probability (16.5%) of any throw in Week 1, per NextGenStats.pic.twitter.com/dEXqmQm9bx
— Steph Sanchez (@Steph49K) September 12, 2023
Purdy still may not be a QB1 in 2024 drafts. He's currently right on the cusp. There's hesitation about his abilities due to his seventh-round draft capital and his embarrassing, four-interception fiasco against Baltimore on national television on Christmas. Everyone was watching. And while his play in the postseason wasn't bad, he didn't do anything to set himself apart from his counterparts.
The groupthink is that Purdy is a byproduct of the offensive weapons in San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey remains the best running back in the game. Wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk both bring unique strengths to the aerial attack. George Kittle is a top-five tight end in both blocking and receiving. Plus, Purdy has surefire future Hall-of-Famer Trent Williams protecting his blindside.
None of that is changing in 2024. The gang will run it back, hoping to snag that elusive Lombardi Trophy that has been inches away from Shanahan on more than one occasion. Purdy will hold value next season, whether fantasy managers buy him as a franchise quarterback or not.
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns
An honorable mention for the Comeback Player of the Year, who experienced the second breakout campaign of his lengthy career. Flacco's finest season stats-wise came all the way back in 2014 when he converted a career-best 27 passing touchdowns and a tad under 4,000 yards, topped only by his 2016 mark of 4,317.
Flacco's time as the franchise quarterback in Baltimore came to an end in 2018. He then had a cup of coffee with the Broncos before mentoring young signal callers in New York until his time in the league had seemingly come to a close. When Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the season and Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker weren't making an impact, Cleveland came calling.
With a gunslinger, nothing-to-lose mentality, Flacco hit a career-high 6.4% touchdown rate in his five starts but he also registered his highest interception rate, as well. His 323.2 passing yards per game was 44.1 yards per game better than his previous top mark.
Joe Flacco to David Njoku for the 34-yard touchdown!
📺: #JAXvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/lnKzJ3ojBL— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
Now 39 years old, Flacco may not be a starting quarterback again in the new season. The Browns have invested too much money into Watson. Another team may seek to add him as a veteran backup but it will likely take some maneuvering or happenstance to see Flacco as a regular starter in 2024.
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