MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (3/31/2026)

March 31, 2026

Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (3/31/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Francisco Lindor, Jackson Merrill, and Shohei Ohtani.

With so many games to choose from, it can be hard to narrow down who to bet to hit a home run, but never fear, Doug is here to help you lock down some big profits. As per usual, we are going to take a look at four bats that skew more obvious, and then one guy who is a little off the beaten path, so try to maximize our return.

With no game at Coors Field and a young stud in Bubba Chandler pitching for the Pirates, we are going to pivot away from the usual launching pads and instead focus heavily on platoon splits and BvP, for which I am a true believer. Tonight’s slate features a trio of bats from one team with a strong history against the opposing pitcher, but I’ll keep my picks to two of them (but a bet on Willy Adames wouldn’t be a bad idea even if he’s not being written up). 

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, March 31, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (3/31/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, March 31.

Jackson Merrill (SD) vs Logan Webb (SF) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+710 DraftKings)

If this were a DFS article, Logan Webb would be one of the top three pitchers I’d write up, but this isn’t DFS, and even the best arms can give up a big fly now and again. Webb allowed just 14 home runs last season, but eight of them were against left-handed batters. 

Jackson Merrill has never gone yard against Webb, but he’s got nine hits in 13 at-bats, three of which were for extra bases. Altogether, Merrill has a 1.615 OPS and .962 SLG against Webb for his career. 

If Webb were to have any weak spots, it’s against left-handed bats, against whom he allowed a .447 SLG in 2025. For his part, Merrill crushed right-handers last season. He led the Padres with a .223 ISO and .498 SLG against righties. 

His 35.2% Hard% against righties was fourth on the team, but was well above league average. Merrill’s .227 ISO at home was first on the team. His .354 wOBA and 132 wRC+ were second on the team behind only Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Biggest increases in Bat Speed from 2025 to 2026 📈

• Otto Lopez: +3.4 mph 🔥
• Matt McLain: +2.6 mph 🔥
• Spencer Steer: +2.4 mph 🔥
• Adolis Garcia: +2.3 mph 🔥
• Jackson Merrill: +2.1 mph 🔥
• Pete Crow-Armstrong: +2.0 mph 🔥

Obviously take w/ grain of salt pic.twitter.com/1AEGUNRogz

— The Commish (@CommishFilmRoom) March 30, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+200 BetMGM)

Shohei Ohtani is the starting pitcher for the Dodgers, which would generally make him a player to avoid at the plate, but 11 times Ohtani has hit a home run while pitching in a game, so it’s not as rare an occurrence as one might think. In eight career at-bats against Tanner Bibee, Ohtani has two home runs with a 1.125 SLG. 

Last season, Bibee allowed 30 home runs, 17 of which were to left-handed batters. He allowed a higher wOBA and SLG to lefties, and 73% of the home runs he gave up were on the road. Meanwhile, Ohtani was a menace against righties in 2025 with a .371 ISO, .652 SLG, and led the team with 40 big flies. 

His numbers were equally stellar at home, leading the team with a .325 ISO, .609 SLG, and 29 home runs. With a 46.6% Hard% against righties, Ohtani is in a great spot to put one out of Chavez Ravine (I refuse to call it Uniqlo Field). A fun bet would be to parlay an Ohtani home run with an alternate line on his strikeouts. 

Matt Chapman (SF) @ German Marquez (SD) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 FanDuel)

Continuing our journey through BvP warriors, Matt Chapman has hit German Marquez hard in his career. He’s posted a .400 AVG with three home runs in 15 career at-bats. Although half of Chapman’s experience against Marquez took place at Coors Field, we can’t attribute all of his success to the altitude. In road games against Marquez, Chapman has a .375 AVG and 38% Hard% in eight at-bats. 

Marquez was flat out awful last year, allowing an SLG over .535 to batters on both sides of the plate. This doesn’t bode well for him today, as Matt Chapman is a reverse splits batter, posting a .222 ISO against righties in 2025. 

Like with his matchups against Chapman, let’s not attribute all of those struggles to Coors Field. He allowed a .546 SLG and 1.6 HR/9 on the road in 2025. Taking the data back three years still doesn’t help, as his numbers are even worse with a .554 SLG and 1.77 HR/9 allowed on the road. It’s not unreasonable to say that he’s one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball, regardless of where the games take place. 

Francisco Lindor (NYM) @ Adam Pallante (STL) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+440 Fanatics)

Francisco Lindor has nearly one-third of the total career at-bats for the Mets against Cardinals’ starter Adam Pallante. He’s gotten a hit in six of those 13 at-bats, carrying a 1.025 OPS. Last season was his best against Pallante, going 4-for-5 with a 60% hard hit percentage. He’s also walked three times, compared to only two strikeouts, meaning he sees the ball very well coming out of Pallante’s hand. 

Lindor has started the 2026 season well, with a .250 ISO against right-handed pitching in 11 at-bats. This follows a 2025 in which he posted a .230 ISO and .509 SLG against righties, both second on the team to Juan Soto. His 35% Hard% against righties may have only been seventh on the team last season, but it’s still better than league average and resulted in 24 home runs. 

By every conceivable metric, only Juan Soto was a better hitter against right-handed pitching for the Mets in 2025, and Soto is one of the best bats in the league. Lindor’s history against Pallante and his longer home run odds make him the better bet for a stronger return on today’s slate. 

🏃🏾‍♂️💨 | A TODA VELOCIDAD:

Francisco Lindor abrió la jornada de este lunes 30 de marzo con el 2do triple de MLB 2026. El boricua no dejó pasar un cambio de Kyle Leahy que catapultó hasta la barda del central. Con ello arribó a 646 extrabases.#MLB #SwingCompleto #SwingLatino pic.twitter.com/4B6kAVTQED

— Swing Latino MLB (@SwingLatinoBB) March 31, 2026

Longshot: Harrison Bader (SF) @ German Marquez (SD) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+620 Fanatics)

I’m going to keep this section relatively short because there’s no point in restating just how bad a pitcher German Marquez is. It should tell you all you need to know that I’ve chosen to highlight two bats against him in a relatively pitcher-friendly ballpark. 

Harrison Bader isn’t quite as strong a bet as Chapman, carrying just a .176 ISO against righties last year, but that’s only half the story. His .476 SLG surpasses that of Chapman, and his BvP is nearly as intriguing. 

Since the start of 2021, Bader has had 10 plate appearances against Marquez. He’s reached base safely in six of them. Only two of those plate appearances resulted in a ground ball, meaning he’s either seeing the ball well and taking a walk or he’s putting the ball in the air and giving himself a chance to put one over the fence.

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