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Drafting for next season when the Super Bowl hasn't even taken place might seem premature. Don't care. We've already done a too-early mock draft and will continue to prepare our readers to win in 2022 fantasy football leagues.
Best-ball is the ideal place to begin since you can set and forget multiple teams throughout the offseason. It's interesting to see how various players' draft stock shifts after free agency and the NFL Draft. Sometimes you can only grab certain players at a bargain price far ahead of time, which makes this a good time to look at early sleepers.
FFPC has officially opened up best-ball leagues for 2022, so there's no need to wait before jumping in! It's too soon to have an industry-wide ADP to reference, so I'm selecting players who have been taken outside the top 100 overall picks in early best-ball drafts on Underdog for now.
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Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Currently going as the QB15 in early drafts, that could shoot up in a hurry. Several quarterbacks being drafted before him are at imminent risk of seeing their ADP drop or disappear altogether. Tom Brady is retiring (maybe?), Aaron Rodgers' status for 2022 is a mystery, Trey Lance may still be on the outside looking in at Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter if the Niners don't make an immediate change, and then there's Deshaun Watson... As soon as the Bears add another receiver to replace Allen Robinson, the hype will build.
There is already enough promise with Fields to be hopeful based on talent alone. He is a true dual-threat QB with the type of top-shelf speed that gives him a high weekly floor due to rushing upside. The biggest feather in Fields' fantasy cap is the fact that Matt Nagy is gone, which is basically addition by subtraction. His new OC is Luke Getsy, former passing game coordinator for Green Bay who has worked with Aaron Rodgers the last three years. He drew praise from Rodgers recently:
He’s been in our room for three years now, and he’s a fantastic coach. He’s a really good teacher of the game.
If Rodgers says it, then it must be true...
Fields will have plenty of support to grow in his second season and no longer have to worry about being pulled for a backup QB by a desperate coach trying to hold on to his job. Much like Jalen Hurts in 2021, who wound up as a top-10 fantasy QB, ahead of Kyler Murray, Fields is bound to outperform his ADP and could be a league winner at the position.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Let's address the elephant in the room now that Carson's name has been invoked. He doesn't stay healthy and is coming off season-ending cervical fusion surgery on his neck. Any injury above the shoulders is concerning, as is anything that involves surgery anywhere. Put the two together and add in the fact that Carson has ended three of his five NFL seasons on IR, you've got a big red flag.
That will scare away many from drafting him anywhere before round 10 in redraft leagues but it makes him the perfect best-ball flier. The worst-case scenario is that Carson suffers another injury or a complication with his recent procedure and doesn't play at all in 2022. The best-case scenario is that Rashaad Penny leaves in free agency and Carson is the undisputed starter at running back in Seattle once more. Oh, and Russell Wilson stays put too.
For his career, Carson averages 4.6 yards per carry and has two seasons over 1,150 yards rushing. He had been more involved as a receiver the last two years as well. Carson may not get back to peak form but with the running back position, it's always about volume and opportunity.
Sony Michel, Free Agent
After three unremarkable seasons in New England, the former first-round pick thrived in L.A. Just in time to hit the free agent market, no less. Michel's landing spot is as of yet unknown but he should earn himself a significant role as either 1A or 1B in a timeshare somewhere after tallying 973 scrimmage yards despite starting only seven games this season.
Michel is available outside the top 125 picks, well beyond the RB dead zone. The risk is negligible at that stage when you're simply shooting for upside. He clearly has a higher ceiling than players like Ronald Jones II, Gus Edwards, or Chuba Hubbard, all of whom are being taken in the same range.
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
It's understandable why drafters aren't betting on a bounce back by Golladay. He was either hurt or terrible throughout 2021. The entire Giants offense was a disaster, ranking 31st in points scored and total yardage. Golladay didn't do much to help with a career-low 37.2 yards per game. He didn't score a single touchdown, two years removed from leading the league in receiving TDs.
While Golladay was seemingly on the injury report all year, he only missed three games and didn't suffer any serious injury. It's possible he bounces back much stronger next year with a positive offseason. The best reason to be optimistic is that Joe Judge is gone and offensive guru Brian Daboll is taking over. It appears Daniel Jones will remain the quarterback but Daboll is bringing on Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator. The duo is responsible for developing Josh Allen into an All-Pro QB. Nobody believes Jones will be the next Allen, but he did show promise as a rookie and this entire offense underachieved massively based on the talent they have.
It's easy to see how Golladay could wind up smashing his draft slot. Kadarius Toney is going 30 spots higher based on early ADP but Golladay could (and should) be the leading target on the new New York offense.
Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
Some of the best picks in early best-ball leagues are speculative fliers on players who could see an increased role after free agency. Case in point, if Mike Williams goes elsewhere, Josh Palmer will become the WR2 for the Chargers.
Palmer was lightly used through the first half of the season but started to come on over the last five games. He saw at least five targets and three receptions in four of the last five games and scored on three occasions. If Williams departs, that would vacate 20% of the team's targets and 31% of the team air yard share. Of course, they would likely sign another free agent in his place but not necessarily one who would take over as prominent of a role. Palmer wouldn't need to be a steady contributor to pay off at his best-ball ADP outside the top 150 players, he just needs to have some of those boom games and find the end zone several times.
Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders
If you're going to roll the dice with a fifth or sixth wide receiver, why not try someone who's two years removed from being a WR2 in fantasy? Samuel served the same hybrid RB/WR role back in Carolina that Deebo Samuel has this season in San Francisco. In Washington, Samuel did essentially nothing because he was hurt nearly all year.
If he comes into the season with a clean bill of health, he can get back to being a playmaker that Ron Rivera envisioned when bringing him over. It's unclear who Washington will have at quarterback in 2022 but it's got to be an upgrade, right? Samuel is being drafted as the WR66 early on so there's virtually no risk to taking him with one of the final picks of a best-ball draft.
Brevin Jordan, Houston Texans
If there is one good thing that came out of Houston's 2021 season, it's that second-round pick Davis Mills showed well enough toward the end of the season to inspire hope. The Texans need to add some more playmakers on offense, particularly at running back, but they might be set at tight end with second-year man Brevin Jordan.
After a productive college career at Miami, known for a long history of producing NFL tight ends, Jordan fell to the fifth round due to a poor Pro Day showing. He's got prototypical size for a pass-catching tight end at 6'3", 245 lb and a breakout age in the 99th percentile. Still just 21 years old, Jordan took some time to acclimate to the pros but once he saw the field regularly, he was productive. In four of his first seven games played, he ranked as a top-12 tight end in PPR formats. Jordan could grow into one of the top targets in this offense and serve as a great second tight end in best-ball.
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