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Jarod Rupp looks back on the players who did not live up to expectations during the 2023 Arizona Fall League and what that might mean for their prospect status in 2024.
Every year since 1992, each MLB team sends a handful of prospects to the desert to compete in the Arizona Fall League. Players are sent here to get additional reps as a hitter or as a pitcher in order to further prepare them to make the leap to the major leagues or to get some additional reps because of lost regular-season time due to injury.
Sometimes players who rank outside the MLB's Top 100 Prospects list or even their own team's top 30 make a splash and go on to be a highly (or at least higher) rated prospect the following year. Or sometimes top-rated prospects perform admirably against tough competition, catapulting them to a spring training invite the following season and on to great MLB careers (i.e. Nolan Arenado).
Of course, sometimes players fall flat and underperform expectations, and those are some of the players we'll take a look at here. If you are looking for the list of players who exceeded expectations, check out Arizona Fall League Wrap-Up: Risers and see if you agree with the names listed!
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AFL Fallers - Hitters
These players fell short of expectations during the AFL season:
Kevin Parada, New York Mets, C
The Mets selected Kevin Parada in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft with the 11th overall pick, so expectations are high. With Francisco Alvarez donning the catcher's gear behind the plate in the Big Apple for the foreseeable future, perhaps there isn't a rush to get Parada to the majors, but many times the AFL is used to get a player some additional reps and/or get them ready for the final leap.
Parada hit a solid .265 in 340 at-bats after his promotion to High-A ball in 2023 but hit a paltry .185 in his limited Double-A sample (54 AB). His K rate spiked from 25% in High-A to 38% in Double-A. Hoping to see a reversal of fortunes in the AFL, Parada hit .186 in 70 AB and struck out 29 times (39%) while walking just four times.
Even Alvarez hit just .209 in 2023, so a low BA can be tolerated as long as you are getting on base or hitting home runs (Alvarez does more of the latter), but Parada will need to increase his power stroke, bring his K rate down, and increase his OBP -- or some combination of the three -- before he sees some ABs in Queens.
Max Muncy, Oakland Athletics, SS
Max Muncy was a first-round pick in 2021 for the A's, selected 25th overall, and had a promising 2023 campaign across two levels of the minor leagues. In High-A, Muncy hit .255 with a .327 OBP and a 29.5% K rate in 312 plate appearances. Once he was promoted to Double-A, he actually saw his numbers improve, hitting .302 with a .387 OBP and 23.2% K rate in 233 plate appearances.
The AFL competition did not come as easy Double-A pitching did, however, and Muncy hit just .212 with a .295 OBP. His K rate ended at 24.7%, striking out 23 times and walking just eight times. It wasn't all bad, as he was able to turn 10 of his 18 hits into extra bases, logging five doubles, one triple, and four home runs. He also chipped in eight steals and was not caught once.
Another silver lining is that Muncy is still just 21 years old; however, others drafted in the same class as him have already seen quite a bit of action at the major league level, including Gavin Williams, Matt McLain, Sal Frelick, and 2021's number 1 overall pick, Henry Davis, so the A's would have liked to have seen him take another step in the AFL.
Carson Williams, Tampa Bay Rays, SS
Carson Williams was a first-round draft pick for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021 (28th overall), spending all of 2022 at Single-A and playing the majority of 2023 at High-A. While at High-A in 2023, Williams showed off his 60-grade power, hitting 23 home runs in 105 games, and he displayed his base-stealing prowess by swiping 17 bases during the season.
Williams earned a promotion to Double-A late in the season that lasted just six games before ascending to Triple-A by season's end for four games. Armed with the ability to flash some slick glove work, the tools have put him on a path to the majors, especially with the sudden vacancy at shortstop left by Wander Franco. Williams ranks as the 19th overall prospect in baseball and he's Tampa's second overall prospect.
Needing to get him ready for The Show, Williams was sent to the AFL; however, the results were not as they'd hoped. Williams hit .246 and had an OPS of .641, but even more strikingly, he did not hit a single HR in 69 ABs. His K rate was alarmingly high at 37.5%, and he stole just five bases while getting caught three times. At 20 years old, it is not time to panic; hopefully, he can return to form in 2024 and fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on a player with so many tools.
AFL Fallers - Pitchers
Jake Eder, White Sox, SP
While Jake Eder is not a first-round draft pick, he has been a highly-regarded pitching prospect in the past. However, multiple injuries have sidetracked his path to the big leagues. Eder had been putting up respectable numbers during 2023 while he was with the Marlins' Double-A affiliate, posting a 3.94 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and holding opponents to a .210 batting average. In early August, however, Eder was dealt to the White Sox in exchange for Jake Burger.
During his five starts with Chicago's Double-A affiliate, Eder posted an 11.42 ERA, 2.42 WHIP, and allowed opponents to hit .360 off of him. Then the White Sox sent him to their pitcher's camp to work on some things and get him ready to take part in the AFL season. The work did not translate to success on the mound and Eder pitched to the tune of a 6.11 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and .265 opponent batting average.
In 17.2 IP, he allowed 18 H, 12 ER, and a BB:K of 15:16. When a pitcher is working on mechanics, sometimes the results aren't quite as important as getting in the reps, akin to spring training, but the AFL seemed like more of a continuation of a downward trend for Eder. The White Sox will want to see better results before allowing him to compete for a rotation spot.
Adisyn Coffey, Chicago White Sox, RP
Adisyn Coffey isn't in the White Sox's top 30, but they must envision him in their future plans or else he wouldn't have been sent to the desert to compete in the AFL. Or at least his performance there could determine whether or not he will be in their future plans.
Unfortunately for Coffey, the results were not great. Coffey made seven appearances and pitched a total of six innings, allowing 16 ER on 10 hits while walking 11 batters and striking out just eight. This equates to a 24.00 ERA, 3.50 WHIP, and an opponent batting average of .357. He'll be off the fantasy radar until we see more promising results.
Dylan Dodd and Darius Vines, Atlanta Braves, SP
Dylan Dodd and Darius Vines both got work at the major league level in 2023, with Dodd making seven starts and Vines making two. Vines' numbers looked better than Dodd's, albeit over a smaller sample size, but with the back end of the Braves rotation up for grabs, both were sent to the AFL for additional work.
Despite the work against major league hitting, neither player stood out in the AFL. Dodd ended with a 6.16 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over four starts, although the BB:K numbers were good (6:20). Vines ended with a 5.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over four starts, but his BB:K was good too (6:23).
Dodd and Vines both had impressive debuts with the Braves, so the potential is there, but also both struggled with the increased usage. Both are worthy of keeping on the fantasy radar but neither seem like a priority roster candidate at the moment.
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