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Jarod looks back on the players who saw their stocks rise the most during the 2023 Arizona Fall League and what that might mean for the 2024 season.
That's a wrap! Congratulations to the Surprise Saguaros on their second consecutive Arizona Fall League (AFL) Championship, downing the Peoria Javelinas 6-5 in the final contest thanks to a four-run outburst in the fifth inning.
Now that the final out has been recorded, we can take a look back at individual player performances to see whose stock is rising and also which players disappointed in relation to their expectations coming into the fall season.
Even though many of these prospects may not make their debuts in 2024, keen dynasty managers will want to keep an eye on these players, as the AFL is loaded with talent and has seen the likes of Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Ronald Acuna Jr. win AFL MVP honors in recent years.
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AFL Risers - Batters
The following players exceeded expectations during the AFL season:
Jakob Marsee, San Diego Padres, OF
Jakob Marsee came into the AFL season outside of MLB.com's Top 100 and as the Padres' 12th-ranked prospect. That could change once we see the next update to the Top 100 after Marsee put together a robust 2023 regular season and parlayed that into a strong AFL campaign, capping it with AFL MVP honors. (Baseball America's Geoff Pontes saw it coming, too! Fast forward to about 20 minutes into the podcast, "Arizona Fall League Podcast: Rosters Announced")
Marsee spent most of 2023 in High-A but was promoted to Double-A late in the season, hitting a solid .274 across both levels with 35 extra-base hits, including 16 home runs. He added 46 stolen bases and what is perhaps more impressive is his plate discipline: he walked more than he struck out (98:97).
In the AFL, we saw more of the same or even better from Marsee. He led the league in multiple categories including hits (36), doubles (12), runs (25), slugging (.707), and OPS (1.215). He displayed his power, adding five HRs (tied for third-most), showed off his base-running acumen by swiping 16 bags (third-most), and maintained a good eye at the plate with 21 walks (second-most) to 25 strikeouts.
Fantasy managers will want to see if those numbers hold up in 2024 against tougher pitching as he moves up the ranks. If he can continue to hit and get on base via the free pass, he should be able to steal some bases and produce some multi-category returns once he makes it to the big leagues.
Only one prospect had 15+ HR, 30+ SB, and more walks than strikeouts this season.
Jakob Marsee #Padres
🎥 @TooMuchMortons_ pic.twitter.com/Z7qnlOqtII
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 22, 2023
Victor Scott II, St. Louis Cardinals, OF
Like Marsee, Victor Scott II came into the AFL season ranked outside of the Top 100, however, he led the minors in stolen bases in 2023, so we knew the speed was there. His 94 SB were nine more than speedy current major leaguer Esteury Ruiz had in 2022 (85), and once he got to the AFL he just kept on running, stealing 18 bags in 23 games which was good for second-most.
Scott hit leadoff for the NL in the Fall Stars game and collected a double and a pair of walks in his three plate appearances. He of course stole THREE bases in the game as well.
Keep in mind you cannot steal bases if you can't get on base, and Scott's .303 batting average during the regular season is what helped him do so. In the AFL he hit a solid .286 with 24 hits, which included a pair of doubles and three HR. His patience in the AFL also helped get him on base, putting together a nice BB:K of 12:8.
With MLB implementing changes in 2023 that made base stealing more prevalent, Scott's wheels will make him an asset at the major league level. Add in his 70-grade fielding ability and he should be getting the call sooner rather than later. With his speed and regular playing time, fantasy managers should also expect some high-yielding run production.
Victor Scott II swipes THREE more bases for the @Sgf_Cardinals!
The @Cardinals' No. 4 prospect is up to 93 stolen bases on the season: pic.twitter.com/XCYu3vKi2B
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 11, 2023
Damiano Palmegiani, Toronto Blue Jays, 3B
Damiano Palmegiani currently ranks as the Toronto Blue Jays' 18th-highest prospect, and while his performance in the AFL may not vault him into the Top 100 like the aforementioned Marsee and Scott, it should bump him a bit higher on the Jays' list come springtime and get him a little bit closer to The Show.
After belting 23 HR in the minors in 2023 over 128 games, Palmegiani had the second-most HR during the AFL season (6), and proved his power stroke was for real by finishing as runner-up in the AFL Fall Stars HR Derby. His 21 RBI were third-most in the league and was one more than eventual MVP, Jakob Marsee, while his 22 runs scored were second-most. He posted a solid .263 BA and .941 OPS.
Palmegiani capped off his AFL season by scoring three of the six runs that the Saguaros scored in the championship game, going 1-for-3 with two walks in addition to the three runs scored. If Palmegiani does get the call, managers could expect some sneaky power and RBI numbers hitting in a potent Blue Jays lineup that is highlighted by perennial MVP contenders Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Damiano Palmegiani showed out for The Six last night, hitting 22 HRs in the #AFL23 HR Derby! pic.twitter.com/CWtMdIXxhf
— MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) November 5, 2023
Liam Hicks, Texas Rangers, C
Maybe Liam Hicks should have been listed first, because not only can you not find him in the MLB Top 100, you cannot find him in the Rangers' Top 30, so no one may actually rise in terms of actual spots than Hicks after his showing in the AFL.
Hicks started off the AFL hot, collecting hits in each of the first six games he appeared in for the Saguaros. Later in the season he collected six hits in a single game, then went on to collect three more hits the following night before he walked in his fourth plate appearance, giving him a hit in nine straight plate appearances. Almost needless to say, but Hicks finished as the AFL leader in batting average at .449 and OBP at .553.
Hicks had the third-most hits (31), behind only Jakob Marsee (36) and James Triantos (35), despite playing four fewer games than Triantos and six fewer than Marsee. Hicks also maintained a sterling 16:8 BB:K. Catchers typically produce the least amount of offensive production, so managers in need of help at this position would be wise to keep an eye on Hicks.
In the AFL’s first week, Liam Hicks wrote his name in the record books by collecting six hits in a game against Scottsdale.
Since then, he hasn’t cooled off.https://t.co/u8yTNHi010 pic.twitter.com/cI33zx4Rx7
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) October 24, 2023
AFL Risers - Pitchers
Carson Spiers, Cincinnati Reds, SP
Like Liam Hicks, you won't find Carson Spiers on the MLB Top 100 list or his club's Top 30 list, but Spiers had a solid 2023 season in the minors. Spiers was 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 106 K over 85 IP, which earned him a promotion to the big league squad in September. He pitched four times, starting twice, and while the ERA and WHIP weren't great during his stint, he was still able to strike out 12 batters in 13 IP.
Pitching with the big league club may have given him some additional confidence going into the fall, as he led the AFL in wins with four and pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. What's more is that over the five games he pitched, Spiers struck out 20 batters and walked just one.
With his showing in the AFL and having already had some experience on the senior circuit in 2023, Spiers could be an under-the-radar pitcher who could have success as early as 2024.
Carson Spiers earns the first strikeout of his MLB career with a 95 MPH fastball ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/61OXOkv0i0
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) September 3, 2023
Emiliano Teodo, Texas Rangers, RP
Emiliano Teodo came into the AFL as the Rangers' 22nd-ranked prospect, but his 2023 regular season was a bit of a mixed bag. He tallied a 5-4 record working mainly as a starter, with a 4.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Armed with a fastball that regularly touched triple digits, however, he shined with 84 K in just 61.2 IP, good for a K/9 of 12.26. Out of qualified starters in the Bigs, only Spencer Strider had a higher rate.
In the AFL, Teodo did not work as a starter, but rather he worked out of the bullpen as the Saguaros' closer and executed his repertoire in dominating fashion. Teodo led all relievers in saves with five, but more impressively, he pitched a total of 11 innings while allowing just three hits and not a single earned run. His BB:K came in as you would expect based on those numbers, at 3:19, and he easily won the AFL Reliever of the Year honors.
That type of dominance and fastball seems to put him on track to potentially be the Rangers' closer in the not-too-distant future, but whether starter or reliever, managers will want to keep an eye on Teodo for potential low WHIP and ERA to go along with high Ks and possibly saves.
Emiliano Teodo has the most live arm I saw all year. Caught several of his starts and he looked solid. But he has thrived in the closer role in the AFL. Locked down his 5th save on Thursday and has not allowed a run in 11 IP with 19 K/3 BB. Rangers closer of the future. https://t.co/bexHQMeikd
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) November 3, 2023
Other Notables from the Arizona Fall League
There are some other notable names missing from the above list of players and that is because they didn't necessarily rise or fall, rather, they solidified their status as highly-rated prospects at their respective positions. These hitters include Chase DeLauter, Kevin Alcantara, Kyle Manzardo, and the AFL Fall Stars Game MVP, Colson Montgomery. On the pitching side of things, Jackson Jobe showed well and Ricky Tiedemann won AFL Pitcher of the Year. Here are some other names to keep an eye on:
James Triantos, San Diego Padres, 2B - AFL Offensive Player of the Year
22 games played: .417 BA, .495 OBP, 1.174 OPS, 35 H, 3 2B, 5 3B (league leader), 3 HR, 15 RBI, 18 R, 12:15 BB:K, 9 SB
Kala'i Rosario, Minnesota Twins, OF - AFL HR Derby Winner
25 games played: .213 BA, .333 OBP, .816 OPS, 19 H, 3 2B, 7 HR (league leader), 16 RBI, 14 R, 15:34 BB:K, 3 SB
Oliver Dunn, Milwaukee Brewers, 2B - AFL Breakout Player of the Year
19 games played: .342 BA, .455 OBP, 1.071 OPS, 25 H, 6 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 17 R, 15:26 BB:K, 12 SB
Caleb Durbin, New York Yankees, 2B
23 games played: .353 BA, .456 OBP, 1.044 OPS, 30 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 18 R, 14:7 BB:K, 21 SB (league leader)
Ryan Bliss, Seattle Mariners, 2B - AFL Defensive Player of the Year
19 games played: .239 BA, .368 OBP, .664 OPS, 17 H, 2 2B, 1 3B, 8 RBI, 15 R, 14:21 BB:K, 10 SB
Looking for the list of "Fallers" from the AFL? Check out Arizona Fall League Wrap-Up: Fallers and see if you agree!
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