ADP Sleepers and Busts - Second Basemen

March 19, 2018

Second basemen who may be overvalued busts or undervalued sleepers for 2018 fantasy baseball drafts. Connor McEleney looks at some 2B targets and avoids.

Second base is somewhat deep this year and you should be able to find juicy upside in the later rounds of standard drafts. Jason Kipnis is a popular bounce-back candidate, Yoan Moncada and Ozzie Albies are intriguing at their current ADPs, and guys like Scooter Gennett and Ian Kinsler should be available for managers who waited on second base.

I love these overvalued/undervalued pieces because readers can digest quick bits of valuable information to get ready for success on draft day. All average draft position data is from NFBC.

Let’s dive in.

Undervalued Second Basemen

These 2B are excellent value picks and should be targeted in all drafts.

Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals - (ADP: 73)

You should be all over Murphy in the seventh round now that he could be back in time for Opening Day. The seventh round is just way too low for him. This is one of those picks you’ll appreciate in September when Murphy is helping you win a fantasy title. So what if he misses April? It’s a long season, and I’d much rather have a healthy Murphy late in the year than some replacement level second baseman I rostered after Yoan Moncada busted again. Double-plus contact skills and 20-25 HR should result in an automatic mid-round pick.

Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves - (ADP: 127)

Albies quietly hit .286 last year and paired it with a 112 wRC+ in 244 plate appearances. He did that as a 20-year-old rookie. If you like age-adjusted production and believe in taking high-upside bats late in drafts, Albies is your slam dunk 12-round pick. Don’t overthink this. Albies could hit .300 and swipe 35 bags and no one would be surprised. His floor is higher than you think and he could easily be a top-40 pick in drafts next year. Pick him and don’t look back.

Ian Kinsler, Los Angeles Angels - (ADP: 185)

He’s a guy you should be taking because a rebound season is probably about to transpire. Kinsler’s always been a bit of a volatile player. He’s had season hitting over .290 and a handful of years hitting below .270. He’s sitting atop a rejuvenated Angels lineup that should knock him across home plate all year long. His .244 BABIP should rebound and Steamer thinks he’s good for a decent batting average and a sneaky good HR/SB combo.

Starlin Castro, Miami Marlins - (ADP: 281)

Pencil him in for .280 with 120 R+RBI on this depleted Marlins team. I don’t advise taking him in the 100s, but his ceiling is high to warrant an automatic pick in the final round of drafts. Castro has a history of consistency and should be able to stick on your team all year long… if you’re playing in a deep league, that is. Just keep an eye on Castro at the end of your drafts.

Overvalued Second Basemen

These 2B are currently being drafted too high or over better players.

Eduardo Nunez, Boston Red Sox - (ADP - 132)

Nunez’s role is too undefined to justify taking him around pick 130. When he plays he’s rather fantastic, but playing time is the only real question with him heading into 2018. I’d much rather select a middle-of-the-order arm or a high-upside bat instead of Nunez in the mid-rounds. I want to be clear, though: this isn’t about his ability. He’s a stud when he’s on, capable of providing consistent everyday production. It’s just a matter of how often he’s going to receive at-bats, and if he’s not playing on a daily basis I’ll gladly fade him in all drafts.

Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs - (ADP: 101)

Baez’s ceiling is just a little too low for me at pick 101. He’ll probably hit .260 with 20-25 HR and 10-15 SB, though, so if you want to play it safe in these mid-rounds, he’s the guy to grab. His 28.3 K% is hard to swallow in standard leagues that value consistency, however. David Price and Ronald Acuna are just two of a handful of guys going around 100 that could end up being better value picks in the long run. There may not be a more electrifying shortstop in the game, though. He’s simply sensational defensively, but you’re not benefiting from his defensive ability in fantasy.

Marwin Gonzalez, Houston Astros - (ADP: 116)

We probably just witnessed the best season Marwin Gonzalez will ever have. As if the Astros needed more help offensively, Gonzalez hit .303, drove in 90, popped 23 HR and finished the season with a 144 wRC+.

If you’re willing to pay top dollar for Gonzalez’s services, go right ahead and take him around 116. Whether or not you take Gonzalez depends on if you think he can repeat last year’s performance. Just know that his .343 BABIP, inflated walk rate, and 18.1% HR/FB rate will regress to the mean.

More 2018 MLB Rankings and ADP Analysis