Undervalued and Overvalued Players - Fantrax Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings

March 29, 2022

Pierre Camus highlights MLB players who may be undervalued or overvalued on Fantrax based on 2022 fantasy baseball ADP.

This year's RotoBaller Challenge is being hosted exclusively on Fantrax - The Home of Fantasy Sports. Whether you are competing against fellow RotoBallers, joining a public league, or creating your own custom league on Fantrax, you'll want to get familiar with the site's rankings and average draft position (ADP) before your league drafts. Each platform has variation among its player ranks and this can affect the way your league mates make their selections.

Below, I will highlight certain players that show a significant gap when comparing Fantrax ADP to the industry consensus. Starting pitchers, particularly young ones, hold more sway among Fantrax managers. On the other hand, relievers and older sluggers are depreciated in value. A lot of best-ball and dynasty leagues are hosted on Fantrax, so this obviously influences the way drafts are conducted. Yet, if you jump into a roto redraft league, the ADP remains the same and must be considered.

Take advantage by striking early on key players or passing when prudent. Here are the players I feel are most undervalued and overvalued on Fantrax based on current ADP as of March 9, 2022.

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Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Players

Starling Marte, Oakland A's
Fantrax ADP: 36   Consensus ADP: 24

There typically aren't many big discrepancies within the first few rounds of draft position as it's obvious who the stud players are. Interestingly, Marte's ADP on Fantrax is a full round (for 12-team leagues) later than on other sites, especially Yahoo and RT Sports which have him ranked 19th and 18th respectively. Marte finds himself on the fifth different team in five seasons yet he's adjusted well to every location. Despite turning 33 years old, he tied his career-high with 47 steals last year. In most formats, speed is at a premium early but you can find Marte at a discount here.

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
Fantrax ADP: 70   Consensus ADP: 57

The younger version of Marte is Arozarena, who is supposed to come with more bop but only hit 20 homers last year after setting numerous postseason records in 2020. His sprint speed matches Marte but he was caught stealing 10 times last year on 30 attempts, leaving his numbers lower than expected in that category as well. Whether you believe he is ready to put it all together and blossom into an All-Star or is destined to be a talented but inconsistent player who is perpetually overdrafted will dictate your view on his ADP. For what it's worth, you can get him a full round later on Fantrax which makes it worth the gamble.

Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles
Fantrax ADP: 85   Consensus ADP: 70

One of several closers who are being selected later in Fantrax drafts, Iglesias is the best value of the bunch. There are only so many lockdown closers who are guaranteed job security and have a track record of success. Iglesias fits that bill as he's saved at least 28 games in each of the past four full seasons and was signed to a four-year deal this offseason to stay with the Angels. I don't wholeheartedly advocate picking a closer in the first few rounds this year but if that's your plan, Iglesias is the guy.

Josh Bell, Washington Nationals
Fantrax ADP: 145   Consensus ADP: 131

First base is one of the thinnest positions once the first few dominoes fall. Those who are among the last to take their starter at that spot are left with very similar choices like Rhys Hoskins, Joey Votto, C.J. Cron, and Josh Bell. Only on Fantrax is Bell going after both Votto and Hoskins with Cron not far behind. What separates these players? You tell me.

They've all got power to spare. The one with the highest xBA (82nd percentile) is Bell. The only one who looks better on paper is Votto. While Votto has the better ballpark and probably hits in a better lineup, Bell is younger. I'd be fine with either player at this range but the lower draft price makes Bell the smarter pick.

Lance McCullers Jr. Houston Astros
Fantrax ADP: 162  Consensus ADP: 140

With Ryan Pressly, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, and other Astros joining the undervalued list, maybe it is telling of some sort of bias. Probably not, but it's telling that McCullers is the only one on the Houston staff and one of the few SP in the entire player database for Fantrax that is ranked lower on the site than on all other platforms. The question with McCullers is always the same - will he hold up over most of the season? I don't claim to have the answer but at some point the talent becomes too hard to pass up. He recently stated that he is behind schedule on his rehab, which is worrisome, but the delay to the season makes him less risky.

Nelson Cruz, Free Agent
Fantrax ADP: 178   Consensus ADP: 152

The disrespect never ceases. We don't know where he'll be launching highlight-worthy moonshots and wind up with 40 home runs at the age of 42 by the time the season ends but it doesn't matter. With the DH coming to the National League, he'll have no shortage of options. You may not like drafting someone who only qualifies at the UTIL spot but you'll like it when you see those homers pile up.

Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
Fantrax ADP: 171  Consensus ADP: 151

Another veteran discount! No other site has Turner higher than 155 but you can get him at 171 on average in Fantrax drafts. He's not the most exciting player and his xBA took a downturn to .270 last year, his personal low, but he has never hit lower than .275 in his eight seasons with the Dodgers. He can help across all categories except steals and should prove to be a nice fallback option for those who wait on third base; he is the 17th-ranked 3B eligible player on Fantrax yet 14th among the consensus ranks.

Jake McGee, San Francisco Giants
Fantrax ADP: 331   Consensus ADP: 229

I'm not sure what to make of McGee or the Giants' bullpen right now, especially without a glimpse of spring training action. The veteran lefty was a waiver wire revelation last year, locking down 31 saves with a 2.92 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Then he got injured in the thick of the September pennant race and saw rookie Camilo Doval pick up three saves in the final week; most drafters just assume that Doval is now the closer but Gabe Kapler may not agree. This just goes to show how wildly speculative the closer market is on draft day. In a traditional 5x5 format with saves, McGee could be a steal at 331 or a wasted pick no matter where he goes.

Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Players

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Fantrax ADP: 54   Consensus ADP: 77

Perhaps no pitcher saw his fantasy value catapult over the second half of the season as much as Webb. His postseason dominance (0.71 ERA, 17-1 K-BB in two starts) cemented his status as a breakout candidate for 2022. While the arrow is undoubtedly pointing up and he is in as pitcher-friendly of an environment as possible, some caution is advised. Webb was never viewed as a top-of-the-rotation arm and may not reach SP1 heights. Recency bias is very real so it's also best to recognize that we could just as easily see the first-half version of Webb rather than the dominant October version over a full season. Taking too many starting pitchers early is always a risk so it might be better to wait another round and grab any of Luis Castillo, Jose Berrios, or Max Fried, depending on who falls farthest.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
Fantrax ADP: 97   Consensus ADP: 131

Among the numerous starters you'll see drafted far earlier on Fantrax, Mahle's ADP is one of the most inflated. He checks all the boxes you'd want in the sense that he's a prime-age pitcher (27) who tossed a lot of innings (180) and struck out a ton of batters (210) last year. If he is moved to another team by the stingy Reds organization then his outlook should be even better. But does that make him a top-100 player? I don't see that high of a ceiling or a need to secure his services so early.

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
Fantrax ADP: 131   Consensus ADP: 163

It's easy to get carried away about a talented young starter but Gilbert doesn't need to be drafted as a top-50 SP like he is on Fantrax. Gilbert pitched to a 4.68 ERA over 119 innings in his rookie season, although his 3.87 SIERA and strong command (19.8% K-BB%) tell of a pitcher who should have had more success. That said, it's a bit bullish to have him ahead of proven commodities such as Eduardo Rodriguez or Marcus Stroman.

Robbie Grossman, Detroit Tigers
Fantrax ADP: 169   Consensus ADP: 188

There are a lot of skeptics of the 32-year-old who suddenly went 20-20 for the first time in his career. His draft stock has remained fairly low but Fantrax drafters are more bullish, taking him ahead of teammate Akil Baddoo. It's likely that the proliferation of best-ball and points leagues on the platform have buoyed his value, as he is more valuable due to the number of walks he takes. His .239 average last year is likely to repeat, as he hit .240 and .241 the previous two seasons and is a .250 career hitter. I prefer the upside of a player like Baddoo and would leave him off my draft list in a roto league.

Seiya Suzuki, Free Agent
Fantrax ADP: 183   Consensus ADP: 199

Here's an interesting one. Suzuki is being drafted outside the top 200 on RT and NFBC and has no ADP listed for CBS or Yahoo! Suzuki is still unsigned because of the lockout, yet is being drafted in many formats. Early speculation had him going to Boston but the market is still wide open and teams like the Giants, Padres, and Mariners have also been reported to have a strong interest. His ultimate destination will make a big difference in where he bats in the lineup and what kind of support surrounds him, so pulling the trigger on draft day is a calculated risk.

Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
Fantrax ADP: 254   Consensus ADP: 294

We saw the big-name Mets outfielder, Starling Marte, being slightly undervalued and now the lesser-known commodity being somewhat overvalued. It's hard to complain about an ADP outside the top 250 but the fact he is going 40 spots higher in Fantrax drafts is puzzling. He can net you a decent batting average but the power is sparse and he's never reached double-digit steals in a season. Nimmo is a better defender than hitter; he belongs in the "insurance policy" category as a replacement for an injured player off the waiver wire.

Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals
Fantrax ADP: 238   Consensus ADP: 298

In an inexplicable paradox, I'm going to wholeheartedly disagree with myself placing Gray on the overvalued list here. I have to highlight Gray because I love seeing him go much higher on Fantrax. He is my favorite SP breakout candidate this year and someone I am trying to draft everywhere possible. Savvy Fantrax drafters have caught on and are at least keeping him within the top 250 overall. As mentioned earlier, not every young pitcher will hit but at this stage in your draft, it's worth a shot or two.

Sixto Sanchez, Miami Marlins
Fantrax ADP: 252   Consensus ADP: 319

Personally, as a lifelong Marlins fan (I know, I know), I would love to put some optimism into Sanchez's draft profile. This just can't happen with the news that Sanchez won't be ready until midseason at the earliest. In a best-ball format, he might be worth a late-round flier. Otherwise, there is no reason to even consider drafting him. I imagine his ADP will fall across the board before long.

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