Tight End Sleepers and ADP Values

August 13, 2021

Casey Kamholz evaluates tight end draft sleepers for 2021 fantasy football. These TE options could be undervalued at their ADP.

The tight end position is the most mercurial of them all in fantasy football. By now the perception around the tight end position in fantasy football is clear — it's Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, and then everyone else. The scoring gap between the top group of tight ends and the mid to lower group of tight ends has been enormous over the last few seasons, leading many to classify all mid to late-round tight ends as dart throws at best.

While it's true that it's extremely rare for tight ends drafted outside the first few rounds to come close to the top players at the position, that doesn't mean that there isn't value to be found. Last season we saw three perfect examples of late-round tight ends who were very profitable. Logan Thomas, Robert Tonyan, and T.J. Hockensen finished as the TE's 4-6 in PPR formats in 2020 and all of them were drafted in the later rounds or left on the waiver wire to begin the season. There is value to be found at the position, even if later round tight ends don't typically have elite ceilings.

Finding a tight end that you can feel comfortable starting week in and week out reduces the need to roster more than one tight end, reduces scoring volatility at the position in your lineup, and provides a distinct advantage over most of the teams in your league. Let's dive into the five best values at the tight end position in drafts this season to find the tight ends that will provide a positional advantage without a high opportunity cost.

Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans

Firkser is currently being drafted as the TE22 around pick 198 in NFFC leagues, making him an excellent value in drafts. Firkser finished as the TE25 in PPR leagues last season, averaging just 5.2 PPG. While his performance last season wasn't especially encouraging on the surface, there are plenty of positives to take away when you put things into context. Firkser's snap rate last season was just 32.5% while playing behind Jonnu Smith, so the opportunity wasn't exactly there. Smith departed in the offseason, however, and Firkser now projects as the primary receiving option at tight end for the Titans.

The primary receiving tight end role in Tennessee is extremely valuable recently in terms of fantasy upside. Titans TEs combined for a whopping 26 targets inside the 20-yard line in 2020 and Jonnu Smith by himself was tied for the 6th most targets inside the 20 in the NFL last season with 17. Touchdown equity is more crucial for the TE position than any other in fantasy football, and Firkser should have plenty of scoring opportunities in 2021. Firkser also lined up in the slot more than 70% of the time in 2020, and the departure of Adam Humphries should clear the way for more slot snaps. A tight end operating in the slot is essentially playing as a wide receiver, and the mismatches that tight ends create there can be dominant at times as we've seen with Travis Kelce in Kansas City, Darren Waller in Las Vegas, Logan Thomas in Washington, and elsewhere across the league.

Firkser didn't get the playing time necessary to put up big numbers in 2020, but he performed very well when he was on the field. Firkser was top 10 among TE's in yards per route run (1.82), and catch rate (73.6%) in 2020 — he can play. Additionally, Firkser led the entire NFL in passing play route rate at 98.8%, so it's incredibly clear that the Titans view Firkser as a receiving weapon and not a blocker. Mike Vrable has already declared Firkser the starter and mentioned that he sees Firkser as a red-zone weapon, while beat writers have publicly stated that they expect an expanded role based on what they've seen in training camp.

The bottom line is that Firkser is being heavily undervalued in drafts as the TE22 by ADP after finishing as the TE25 last season when he rarely saw the field. Firkser should see a massive increase in production based on his new role as the featured receiving TE in an efficient Tennessee offense that projects to throw the ball more in 2021.

As he enters his third season with the Tennessee #Titans, Anthony Firkser is set for a much bigger role this year. https://t.co/XWFSfguU9D

— Terry McCormick (@terrymc13) August 1, 2021

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

Thomas isn't exactly a sleeper, he's being drafted as the TE9 in NFFC leagues right now after he finished as the TE4 in 2020, but he is an excellent value. Thomas, a former Virginia Tech quarterback turned tight end, broke out in 2020 despite catching passes from a combination of Kyle Allen, Alex Smith, and Taylor Heinicke in a low-scoring offense. Thomas, like most other late-career tight end breakouts, has elite athleticism for the position. Thomas ran a 4.61-second 40-yard-dash at the combine and, according to Player Profiler, his agility score is in the 87th percentile while his catch radius is in the 94th percentile. The Football Team relied heavily on Thomas in his first year in offensive coordinator Scott Turner's offense, as he racked up 110 targets (3rd among all TE's), 72 receptions (3rd among TE's), and six touchdowns (9th among TE's) while posting the position's leading snap rate at 97.8%.

Thomas's detractors will point to mediocre 2020 efficiency when justifying his TE9 ADP this season, but there are many factors that go into a player's efficiency that must be considered. Perhaps the most important factor (outside of pure talent) in terms of tight end efficiency is quarterback play. Thomas caught passes from some truly bad quarterbacks in 2020, but this season he will benefit from the fantasy-friendly arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Fitzpatrick has shown a willingness to elevate skill position players around him due to his propensity to make big plays and take risks, and Thomas will benefit tremendously from the QB upgrade. With natural positive touchdown regression on his side (Thomas was 6th in the NFL in red-zone targets in 2020) and a better quarterback in town, Thomas also has a great chance to improve on his six touchdowns scored last season.

The case for Thomas is simple — he already broke out and earned a true featured role in the offense last season, and the offense around him should be much better this season. The Fitzpatrick offense will lead to probable positive touchdown regression and improved efficiency to compliment elite target volume at the tight end position. There are very few tight ends that have a realistic path to combining volume, efficiency, and touchdown equity, but Thomas is definitely one of them. To sum things up, Thomas is an athletic freak who already broke out, and now he's in a better offensive environment. Somehow you can still draft Thomas around his floor in drafts this summer despite all of the paths he has to build on his success last season.

Washington believes Logan Thomas, coming off a breakout season, is nowhere near his ceiling https://t.co/b4p0LrZbbM

— Post Sports (@PostSports) August 5, 2021

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

Tonyan enjoyed a true breakout campaign in 2020, racking up 52 receptions, 586 yards, and 11 touchdowns on his way to a TE4 finish in PPR leagues. Currently, Tonyan's August ADP is TE11 at pick 112 in NFFC leagues even after news broke that Aaron Rodgers would be returning to the Packers for another season. Tonyan went undrafted out of Indiana in 2017, but he possesses excellent athleticism for the position having run a 4.63-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 236 pounds at the NFL combine. Tonyan showed elite chemistry with Aaron Rodgers right away last season, and his efficiency was off the charts.

Skeptics will immediately mention that Tonyan's overall efficiency, and especially his 21.2% TD rate from last season as being completely unsustainable. While a 20+% TD rate is likely unsustainable, Aaron Rodgers is arguably the most efficient passer the league has ever seen and Tonyan showed off some elite skills that also played a part. Tonyan created more separation than any other tight end in the NFL when he was targeted in 2020, and his elite ability to get open also played a major part in his hyper-efficient season. To put Tonyan's efficiency in perspective, per Player Profiler he finished top three among all tight ends in the following statistics: yards per target, catchable target rate, target quality rating, catch rate, and true catch rate. These statistics are heavily dependent on the quarterback for the most part, though Tonyan's true catch rate and ability to separate show that he's a very talented receiver. Tonyan is not merely a product of Rodgers as some would suggest, though, it wouldn't matter much if he was because Rodgers is still there.

Tonyan is a talented, athletic tight end playing with an extremely efficient quarterback again in 2021. I don't understand knocking him for being efficient (even if I do expect some minor efficiency regression) because he will be catching passes from Rodgers again in an offense that will look exceedingly similar. It should also be noted that there is potential for Tonyan and Rodgers' rapport to grow even further in 2021 with a more normal offseason. With Aaron Rodgers back in town, drafting Tonyan in the 10th round means that you're getting top-five tight end upside while also drafting him near his floor at TE11.

Aaron Rodgers, rolling right, just dropped a beauty to Robert Tonyan in double coverage 40 yards downfield, beating Darnell Savage Jr. and Jaire Alexander. Terrific adjustment to the ball from Tonyan. That sure looks like a big-time connection coming this fall.

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) August 10, 2021

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Kmet is currently being drafted as the TE20 around pick 182 in NFFC leagues this summer, so he certainly qualifies as a sleeper. Kmet's stock rose leading up to draft day last year and the Bears selected him 43rd overall after he dominated the combine. Clearly, the team has been paying attention, because Kmet fits the mold of many athletic tight ends that have broken out in the NFL — he combines elite strength with great speed and explosiveness at 6-foot-4 262 pounds, but he didn't put up monster numbers in the college ranks. Kmet didn't put up monster numbers in his rookie year either, as Jimmy Graham got in the way and reduced Kmet's snap share to just 60.7% and his target total to just 44. These numbers are hardly concerning, however, as we've continually seen almost all rookie tight ends struggle at the NFL level, especially with poor quarterback play like Kmet had with the Bears in 2020.

Kmet's efficiency was poor last season, but that can be largely chalked up to Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles being under center in addition to the fact that Kmet was a rookie heavily affected by limited practice time due to COVID-19. What Kmet did show in year one was an innate ability to get separation. Kmet was ninth among all tight ends in separation per target in 2020, and that ability is crucial to unlocking ceiling outcomes at the tight end position. Most tight ends in the NFL score fantasy points primarily through unpredictable touchdowns, but they struggle to create separation against more nimble defenders, and as a result, they don't rack up consistent yardage or reception totals.

The elite tight ends like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller excel at creating separation and it shows in their production. Kmet's ceiling isn't close to their level, largely due to his mediocre after-the-catch skillset, but it's a key skill nonetheless. Additionally, when projecting Kmet in 2021, there are a couple of situational factors that should boost his production. First, Kmet will be catching passes from Justin Fields before long, and Fields projects as a major upgrade over Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky. Secondly, Kmet should far surpass his snap and targets totals from 2020 this season, as the team knows that Kmet is their future and Jimmy Graham, who nearly retired in the offseason, is not.

Kmet fits the mold of athletic breakout tight ends at the NFL level, he creates separation, he will see a big spike in opportunities, and he will benefit from improved quarterback play. Kmet's attractive profile coming into this season doesn't match up with his TE20 ADP that fails to account for his potential in year two. Kmet is one of the most intriguing sleepers at the tight end position, and he's a great value in drafts right now as a 16th round pick who could finish in the back end of the TE1 range.

Cole Kmet is already demonstrating some growth at #BearsCamp as he looks to take that second-year leap.

The previous four tight ends that were the first drafted in their respective draft classes (like Kmet) saw on average 17 more receptions and 194 more yards in Year 2.

— The Chicago Audible (@ChicagoAudible) August 4, 2021

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

O.J. Howard is a forgotten man coming off an Achilles injury that he suffered in 2020, and his TE28 ADP of 234th overall reflects that. Howard led all Bucs tight ends in targets before succumbing to injury last season, and his 9.4 PPR PPG ranked 11th at the tight end position. Howard has also shown extraordinary efficiency in his career, and many people seem to have forgotten that he was a truly elite tight-end prospect coming out of Alabama in 2017.

Howard tested as one of the fastest and most athletic tight ends of all-time at the combine that year, and his unteachable traits have propelled him to a career 15.3 yards per reception mark that is far superior to all of the elite fantasy producers at the position. If Howard can come back and remain close to the same player he was before the injury, his big-play upside is nearly unmatched at the tight end position.

I understand the arguments against Howard, he's in a crowded offense, he'll rotate some with Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski, he's coming off an Achilles injury, and he's never cleared 600 yards in a season. Those concerns are all valid, but Howard is going so late in drafts that it's criminal, and his upside is off the charts for a player being taken in the 20th round. Howard hasn't seen a full season with Tom Brady, but if he was efficient with Jameis Winston it's fun to dream about what he can do with Brady, especially in red zone situati0ns. We got a glimpse of that last year when Howard caught two touchdowns on just three red-zone targets.

The main takeaway here is that Howard is too talented and has shown too much upside to be drafted in the 20th round. At that point in drafts, the opportunity cost is so minimal and the bar to finish as a top 20 tight end is so low that Howard is a smash value. Once again, Howard was the TE11 in PPR PPG in four games with Tom Brady last season — it's wise to bet on an uber-talented player at a thin position at pick 234, even if there are plenty of questions around him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard can’t wait to make his mark for defending Super Bowl champs after last year’s injury https://t.co/m5MQydnq1B

— The Bucs Wire (@TheBucsWire) August 4, 2021

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