The Grass Is Greener: NBA Free Agency Risers for Fantasy Basketball

December 7, 2020

Justin Carter looks at five NBA players who changed teams this offseason and should be productive in 2020-2021. These players can be valuable fantasy basketball draft sleepers.

Free agency in the NBA is the wildest free agency in sports, which means that a ton of players have switched teams this year.

While there wasn't as much big-name movement as there were in other seasons, plenty happened in free agency this year, shaking up the landscape of the NBA and, of course, the landscape of fantasy basketball.

Let's take a look at five of the players who changed teams who should find their stock rising up this season.

Gordon Hayward - F, Charlotte Hornets

I don't think we need to talk a ton here about Hayward.

The move to Charlotte is all about getting more opportunities. Hayward has a 21.1 usage rate last year in Boston, which was lower than his usage rate his final five seasons in Utah. But on a Hornets team whose best players are rookie LaMelo Ball, Devonte' Graham, and Terry Rozier, Hayward is about to see a surge in his usage.

That should lead to a nice increase in Hayward's counting stat, even if it leads to a corresponding reduction in his efficiency. Considering 9-cat leagues have a lot more categories that are about volume than are about efficiency, that should be a net win for fantasy managers.

What kind of production? Let's look at his last year in Utah. Hayward played just one more minute per game than he did last year with the Celtics, but his usage rate in Utah was 27.6 percent, while it was 21.1 percent last year. Hayward took 15.8 shots per game for the Jazz, finishing with averages of 21.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.0 steals per contest. He shot 47.1 percent from the floor and 39.8 percent from three.

I don't think he hits those heights -- he's not quite the same player -- but he should definitely outperform what he did in Boston last year.

Christian Wood - F/C, Houston Rockets

I really love Wood's potential in Houston. Expected to start at one of the front court positions and facing little resistance in terms of minutes from other bigs here as the rotation at four/five is really just him, P.J. Tucker, and DeMarcus Cousins, who we don't expect to command the minutes that he would have at an earlier, healthier part of his career.

That will leave ample minutes for Wood, a versatile big who shot 38.6 percent from three last year and scored in the 94th percentile in points per possession. Synergy rated him as "excellent" in both spot up possessions and pick-and-roll rolling possessions, which is basically exactly the kind of big that a James Harden-led team needs, as Harden's a pick-and-roll maestro. Wood will be able to finish strong on rolls to the rim --  his 1.516 points per possession on non-post ups at the basket ranked in the 97th percentile among NBA players -- and also pop out to the perimeter to take a jump shot is going to lead to a lot of production from Wood.

It's unclear how many minutes he'll get, but his per-36 numbers last season were 22 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, as well as 1.5 blocks. If he can play over 30 minutes per night, Wood has a decent shot at averaging a double-double, and with Harden and John Wall in the backcourt, he's going to be set up to make a lot of easy plays.

JaMychal Green - F/C, Denver Nuggets

Green averaged 20.7 minutes per game off the Clippers bench last season. Jerami Grant, who Green is ostensibly replace, averaged 26.6 minutes and started 24 of his 71 games.

The point? Green likely sees four-ish more minutes per game this year when you factor in that Paul Millsap probably plays less than last season and Michael Porter Jr. plays more.

Green shot well from three over the last couple of years and has been especially strong on corner threes, hitting over 40 percent from that spot in three of the last four seasons. With Nikola Jokic in the paint commanding defensive attention, Green should get even more open looks as the stretch four here.

Last year, shot 46.8 percent on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. His 1.405 points per possession ranked in the 87th percentile, a big jump from a 50th percentile PPP on guarded catch-and-shoot looks.

The Nuggets have a lot of options on this team. Green will go ignored by defenses at times, and it's going to lead to some really solid production from him at a low cost to fantasy managers.

Aron Baynes - C, Toronto Raptors

The Raptors front court looks a lot different this year, as Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka are gone and Aron Baynes has arrived in their place.

In terms of figuring out what to expect from Baynes, I find myself going back to that stretch last year where the Suns didn't have Deandre Ayton. In 11 starts for Baynes to open the season, we saw him average 15.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game on 55.9 percent shooting, plus a 43.1 percent mark from three.

On the full season, Baynes averaged 11.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 35.1 percent from deep and 48 percent from the floor.

In a starting role and without a lot of pressure due to the presence of other options for the defense to key in on, I expect a big year from Baynes, even if he'll continue to deliver fewer rebounds than you want from a starting center. I guess that makes him a really good player if you punt on rebounds!

Josh Jackson - F, Detroit Pistons

Okay, we need to wrap this up by talking about a very, very deep league guy.

Jackson played 22 game for Memphis last year, playing 17.3 minutes per game and averaging nine points and three rebounds per contest. He shot 44 percent from the field and 31.9 percent from three.

But Jackson barely played in the bubble and wasn't going to do much of anything if he'd stayed with the Grizzlies this year, so a move to Detroit has the potential to pay off for Jackson.

Detroit is rebuilding, and Jackson has a chance to earn minutes on this team, especially if they move on from some veterans over the course of the year.

Jackson is a former top five draft pick. A new home could help him find his stroke. It also...could definitely not lead to success, but if you're playing in a 16-team league or if you have some really deep benches, I like taking a bet on Jackson figuring something out.

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