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Sam Chinitz presents his expert MLB DFS prop picks for Monday, September 21st. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
Monday kicks off the last week of the 2020 MLB regular season, but there's still time to rake in some more money with DFS props. To that end, fantasy players should take a look at Monkey Knife Fight, where plenty of opportunities exist for profit every day.
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Monday features a slate of 11 MLB games, including several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
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Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
More or Less Contest #1
Lance McCullers Jr. more than 5.5 strikeouts, Marco Gonzales more than 3.5 strikeouts.
Lance McCullers Jr. more than 5.5 strikeouts:
McCullers missed a start with a neck issue earlier this month but returned to the rotation to throw seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts against the Angels. Importantly, McCullers threw his curveball a season-high 46.5% of the time in that start after using the pitch around 35% of the time in most of his starts this season. A 46% usage rate for McCullers’s curve is in line with his career average usage for the pitch, so it’s reasonable to expect that usage uptick to continue into Monday’s start, giving him a good chance to pick up at least six strikeouts. Even in a down year this season, McCullers has generated a solid 15.4% swinging-strike rate with his curveball, and the pitch boasts a 17.7% swinging-strike rate for his career. The Mariners own a worse than average 13% swinging-strike rate against curveballs this season, and the team’s .260 xwOBA against the pitch ranks as the seventh-worst mark in the league. McCullers should have little trouble striking out at least six Seattle batters on Monday as a result, making him an appealing option at MKF.
Marco Gonzales more than 3.5 strikeouts:
Gonzales has collected at least four strikeouts in seven of his nine starts this season including each of his last five (during which he averaged 7.2 strikeouts per start), and it’s come as he’s mostly ditched his changeup in favor of his sinker. That kind of pitch-mix adjustment doesn’t generally lead to an increase in strikeouts, but it’s resulted in career-highs in Gonzales’s called+swinging-strike (32%) and strikeout (23.7%) rates this season. Gonzales’s sinker in particular has seen its called-strike rate rise this season as he’s thrown the pitch in the strike zone at a career-high 62% of the time, and that should help Gonzales rack up strikeouts against the Astros. Houston’s 23% called-strike rate against sinkers this season is as high as any team’s this season, and that should be even worse against Gonzales’s above-average sinker on Monday. Four strikeouts should be a relatively easy total for Gonzales on Monday as a result, making him worth betting on.
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More or Less Contest #2
George Springer more than 1.5 total bases, Kyle Lewis less than 1.5 hits/walks.
George Springer more than 1.5 total bases:
Springer owns a .488 slugging percentage and a .574 xSLG this season, and Marco Gonzales and the Seattle bullpen is unlikely to hold him to fewer than two total bases on Monday. Gonzales relies primarily on his sinker, a pitch against which Springer owns a .478 xSLG this season. Further working in Springer’s favor is that the Seattle bullpen has allowed opposing hitters to post a .469 slugging percentage this season, and the unit owns the league’s third-worst ERA with a 6.02 mark. Springer should have little trouble collecting at least two total bases on Monday as a result and should be counted on by DFS players at MKF.
Kyle Lewis less than 1.5 hits/walks:
Lewis has enjoyed an impressive if somewhat streaky season this year with a .380 OBP, but he’s unlikely to reach base more than once against the Astros on Monday. Astros starter Lance McCullers is likely to rely primarily on his curveball against Lewis on Monday, and that usage should largely work against Lewis. Lewis has reached base against curveballs frequently this season with a .421 OBP against the pitch, but he’s relied on a 24% chase rate and a 100% z-contact rate for much of that success. Given that McCullers’s curveball owns a 39% chase rate for his career, Lewis is likely to chase the pitch out of the zone more frequently than usual against McCullers, and that should suffocate his production. The Houston bullpen has held opposing hitters to a respectable .356 OBP this season, too, so Lewis should have a difficult time reaching base more than once on Monday.
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New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Home Run Derby Contest
Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Teoscar Hernandez to hit at least one home run.
The Yankees and Blue Jays will face off at the league’s second-most homer-friendly park on Monday, making a home run derby contest an easy pick for this game. Even better is that there are attractive matchups, and Monday’s game should see several home runs as a result. Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Teasocar Hernandez are especially likely to hit home runs on Monday, and DFS players should keep that in mind.
Giancarlo Stanton:
There’s a case to be made for taking Aaron Judge here, but Stanton had a day-off on Sunday and the Yankees may elect to sit Judge given that the 28-year-old has played in each of the team’s last two games. Stanton is far from a poor consolation prize anyway, as the 30-year-old is one of the league’s best power hitters and has four home runs through 17 games this season. Stanton will go against a pitcher who tends to rely primarily on his fastball and sinker in Tanner Roark, pitches against which Stanton owns a combined .655 xSLG against since the beginning of last season. That’s enough to make Stanton worth betting on for Monday’s game.
Luke Voit:
Voit is 2020’s home run leader coming into Monday, and he’s got a good chance to extend that lead in Buffalo on Monday. Like Stanton, Voit has been excellent against sinkers and fastballs with a combined .586 xSLG against the pitches since the start of last season, and Tanner Roark hasn’t exactly limited home runs this season with a 7.8% home run rate coming into Monday’s game. Voit is an easy inclusion in this prop as a result, and he should have a relatively easy time going yard for his 22nd home run of the season on Monday.
Teaoscar Hernandez:
I’d probably pick Gary Sanchez here if MKF allowed for the selection of three players on one team, but Teaoscar Hernandez is still a very solid option. Hernandez has posted a ridiculous 8.6% home run rate so far this season, and he’s done it with a 57% hard-hit rate and a .678 xSLG. The Yankees haven’t announced their starting pitcher for Monday’s game as of the writing of this article, but Michael King is a likely possibility, and Hernandez matches up exceptionally well against King and his sinker-heavy pitch mix with a .784 xSLG against sinkers since the beginning of last season. Hernandez has a decent chance of homering regardless of who the Yankees trot out on Monday, though, and he’s a worthwhile inclusion in this prop as a result.
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