RADIO
Joe Gallina breaks down Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season for several teams and evaluates whether the targets and carries for certain RBs and WRs are a trend or anomaly.
In preparation for another weekend of fantasy football, you might be closely reviewing the previous week’s box scores as you try to get a leg up on your competition. There may have been only one week of football played so far this season, and yet, you’re diligently trying to identify any potential emerging trend that will help you make smart decisions as you set your lineups for Week 2.
We’ve been carefully poring over last week’s box scores too, and there were a few things that caught our attention. There were a few teams who, when it came to running their offenses, zigged when we thought they were going to zag.
The following are a few such examples with our take on whether or not they are legitimate examples of trends that will continue in the coming weeks.
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Baltimore Ravens
Mark Ingram II and J.K. Dobbins played an almost identical number of offensive snaps in Week 1.
RotoBaller Evaluation: Trend
The Ravens' backfield is kind of hard to read after Week 1. Many presumed that Mark Ingram would be the Ravens’ lead back to start the season with J.K. Dobbins slowly increasing his role from week to week. However, J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram played an almost identical number of offensive snaps (23 vs. 21, respectively) and Dobbins got both of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line. He scored TDs on both plays.
There were a total of 21 carries distributed among Ingram (10), Dobbins (7), and Gus Edwards (4). We’ll have to see if Dobbins continues to be the team’s goal-line back. Prior to the start of the season, Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Norman said that Mark Ingram remained the starter but “we’ll definitely use three every week and sometimes four… how we deploy them, that will change on a week-to-week basis a little bit.” Based on Week 1’s box score, that wasn’t just coach speak. It’s looking like the Ravens backfield could end up being a fantasy wasteland.
Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton played fewer snaps than Parris Campbell.
RotoBaller Evaluation: Trend
T.Y. Hilton has developed into a more complete wide receiver, but at his core, he’s a big-play threat whose strength remains in his ability to catch a deep ball. Unfortunately, new Colts QB Philip Rivers’ arm strength simply isn’t what it used to be. Parris Campbell makes his living catching passes near the line of scrimmage and using his explosiveness to turn short completions into big gains.
Let’s not overreact. T.Y. Hilton will still be a big part of the Colts’ pass offense and there will be weeks when he’ll play more snaps than Campbell. However, Campbell’s ability to run effective short to intermediate routes, which result in a high percentage of completed passes, might be a better fit for the Colts offense given Rivers’ current skillset. Keep in mind that as rookie Michael Pittman Jr., who is a big playmaker, becomes a bigger part of the Colts' pass offense, he’ll chip away at Hilton’s targets and snaps played percentage as well.
New Orleans Saints
Latavius Murray had more carries than Alvin Kamara.
RotoBaller Evaluation: Anomaly
Latavius Murray carried the ball 15 times for 48 yards compared to Alvin Kamara who carried the ball 12 times for 16 yards in Week 1. However, Kamara dominated when it came to snaps played. He played 45 offensive snaps (66%) and Murray played 23 offensive snaps (34%). Murray having more carries than Kamara in a given game shouldn’t really be all that shocking. Kamara has never really been your classic bell-cow type back, as he’s never had more than 194 carries in a given season. He’s a huge threat in the passing game as evidenced by his 81 receptions in each of his first three seasons in the NFL. He seems healthy to start the season, but let’s not forget that Kamara played with a torn MCL last season and opted to rehab the injury as opposed to undergoing surgery in the offseason. There were also reports that he received an epidural injection in his back at the end of August.
You have to believe that the Saints did their due diligence before signing Kamara to a five-year contract extension and consider his long term health prospects to be good. Since they have a legitimate complementary back like Latavius Murray on their roster, the Saints would be smart to manage Kamara’s usage in order to ensure that he remains productive for this season and for future seasons as well. It should be noted that the Saints ran the ball 51.52% of the time in Week 1, which is significantly higher than their 39.62% rate from 2019. We’ll have to monitor the Saints offense over the next couple of weeks to see if this becomes a trend. Perhaps Drew Brees’ weakened arm strength combined with star WR Michael Thomas’ high ankle sprain may force the Saints to run the ball more.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks ran the ball 20 times in Week 1. They averaged just over 30 rushing attempts per game last season.
RotoBaller Evaluation: Anomaly
By his own admission, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll loves to incorporate a prominent run game into his team’s offensive scheme. According to Carroll, “we love running the ball, we always have, and those guys will get more carries as we move down through the schedule.'' Those guys he’s talking about are Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. The fact that Hyde had seven carries compared to Carson’s six in Week 1 was a bit odd, but Carson played more snaps (28) than Hyde (21). Neither Hyde (3.29 YPC) or Carson (3.5 YPC) were very effective in running the ball. However, Hyde did score a rushing TD and Carson pulled in six receptions and scored two receiving TDs.
According to Carroll, QB Russell Wilson was so effective moving the ball through the air in Week 1 that the game flow called for focusing on the passing game more. In the end, the Seahawks won, and that’s all he cares about. The Seahawks would be smart to run the ball a bit more in Week 2 against a dominant Patriots secondary.
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