October 1, 2017

Adam Hall delves into the fantasy football stats from airyards.com and finds a number of breakout/buy-low candidates for the rest of the 2017 NFL season.

When it comes to fantasy football there are the people that stand by the community’s consensus of value, and there are those that look a bit deeper to find where the true value lies.  One of the many secrets to success is using the inside information that is available at your fingertips to find value before the rest of the community catches up with you.

This article analyzes target share, receptions, air yards and yard after catch to find who is really succeeding after three weeks of the 2017 season.  Many players are still undervalued even though they are likely to succeed from the patterns that have already been set. Strike while the iron is hot and trade for these players before they become untouchable.

In other words, like a true RotoBaller you need to break the trends, buy now and let the competition follow! Here are some players whose peripherals stats suggest they could see even further success throughout the rest of the 2017 fantasy football season.

Undervalued Players to Buy Now

1. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos

Sanders is tied for fifth overall in targets, and has taken an incredibly strong share of the Broncos' targets at 29%.  Not only that, but Sanders is 10^th overall in air yards.  This means that he’s not only getting a grip of opportunities every game, but he’s getting the juiciest opportunities allotted to a wide receiver.  Being top of the charts in targets guarantees a solid floor and that’s what you need to win week after week.  The Broncos have an incredibly easy passing schedule ahead of them and Sanders is in a perfect position to take advantage of it.

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

CMC is tied for second most targeted running back in the NFL through three weeks.  He’s also in the best position of any other RB in PPR formats because he has by far the highest target share out of any RB at 26%.  You’ll see the same pattern in every player I discuss here: high floor, high ceiling.  CMC also has more yards after catch than all but four other running backs currently.  Greg Olsen is injured, Curtis Samuel is injured, and Pro-bowl center Ryan Kalil is injured, this all means that the offense will continue to be funneled McCaffery’s way as the vertical has been taken away. When you extrapolate just CMC’s passing yards to 16 games you get 96 catches and over 920 yards, this is good for low end WR2 numbers before you even add in any rushing opportunities he earns.

3. Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins

Jarvis Landry is tied for 12^th in targets in the NFL and he’s played one less game than 30 other teams.  I don’t need to say much more, but he also holds a 33% target share and brings a balanced game script to the table.  Landry is being used all over the field and is Jay Cutler’s most dependable weapon. With the Patriots and the Jets in his division, Landry stands to have multiple opportunities to hit pay-dirt and win you a week.

4. Chris Thompson, RB, Washington football team

Thompson has hit his opponents like a hurricane.  He leads all running backs in yards after catch, and has firmly solidified his role as the dominant third down option for Washington. Thompson has nearly 100 more yards after the catch than CMC does currently, but I have him ranked under him because his target share is currently “only” at 20%. Thompson still has that FLEX status associated with his name and thus you can get him for cheaper than he’s going to be in a few weeks.  When Rob Kelley gets back, Thompson’s role is secure.  Kelley doesn’t have the pass catching ability or the open field agility that Thompson does and that means that regardless of the situation Thompson has a possibility of being brought in to touch the ball.

5. Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills

Clay is my best deal at tight end out of the group because it’s likely that you can pick him up on the waiver wire currently. Clay is not owned in 37% of leagues currently, this signals that his value is at what I like to call sandwich level which of course, means you could get him for the cost of a sandwich.  Clay has scored nearly 13 points in two of the three games played this season. He also is tied for third in target share out of all tight ends.  Only Jason Witten and Zach Ertz have a higher amount of the target share.  This is a great opportunity just waiting for you to take advantage.  Oh yeah, the last team he scored more than 10 points against was the Denver Broncos.

Air Yards Leaders Heading Into Week 4

Every one of the players listed in this table are currently undervalued and have a legitimate shot at shooting up the production charts. This is not an exhaustive list, but at first extensive glance these are the players that I expect to take leaps forward.

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