November 10, 2016

Harris Yudin analyzes fantasy football buy low and sell high candidates for Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season. These risers and fallers are trade candidates for fantasy owners.

The waiver wire isn't the only place to change the course of your team. The right trade can make or break your season. The key is to buy low on cold players and sell overachieving players whose values have skyrocketed.

While this is a well-known method, some owners still tend to overreact to a small sample size, so it's important to take advantage of those opportunities.

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Fantasy Football Buy Low Candidates

Devontae Booker (RB, DEN)

Booker didn’t have much of an impact in Week 9, carrying the ball 10 times for just 22 yards. To be fair, though, the Broncos didn’t employ the run game all too much, as they fell behind the Raiders early. Since taking over as the lead back, the 24-year-old rookie has managed just 76 yards on 29 carries (2.62 YPC), and owners appear to have soured on him a bit. There has even been talk of Kapri Bibbs, who took just the 10th offensive touch of his career 69 yards to the house, eclipsing Booker as Denver’s No. 1 back.

However, Booker is still averaging four yards per carry on the season despite these poor performances, and the volume of touches should increase against the Saints in Week 10. Booker’s value is not quite where it was a couple of weeks ago when C.J. Anderson first went down, so try to grab him before he explodes against New Orleans.

Chris Ivory (RB, JAC)

T.J. Yeldon has out-snapped Ivory in every game this season, but Ivory has actually been the more effective back. The former Saints and Jets running back has carried the ball 58 times for 236 yards (4.1 YPC) and a touchdown. Yeldon hasn’t picked up more than 16 yards on a single play this year, while Ivory has broken two runs of over 20 yards, including a 42-yard gainer in Week 9, when he totaled 107 yards on 18 carries.

Ivory missed the first two weeks of the season with an illness, and didn’t appear to be at full health until recently. The Jaguars don’t seem to have any faith in Yeldon, so a healthy Ivory could become the clear-cut lead back going forward. As the Jets’ No. 1 running back in 2015, he trotted for 1,070 yards on 247 attempts, collecting five touchdowns in the process. Ivory could be a difference-maker down the stretch, and if he isn’t available on the waiver wire, he could be scooped up in a trade for very little.

Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR)

Benjamin has totaled at least 70 yards receiving in six of eight games this year, including each of his last four. However, he doesn’t have a touchdown in any of those four games, even though Carolina’s offense has improved as the season has progressed. Benjamin is tied for fourth in red zone touchdowns despite being 26th in targets inside the 20, so the Panthers would be wise to look his way more often.

Over the next seven weeks — through what is typically the end of the fantasy season — Carolina will play four teams in the bottom seven in passing defense. Not to mention a Week 10 matchup with a Chiefs defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year. Benjamin is a solid bet to pick up the pace over the second half of the season, and can likely be had for cheaper than his draft day price.

Fantasy Football Sell High Candidates

Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN)

Mariota has hung with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan among the fantasy elite over the last month. In his last five games, the former No. 2 overall pick has totaled 1,262 yards (252.4 per game) with 13 TD and just three interceptions. His most recent performance — in which he threw for a season-high 313 yards and three touchdowns — saw him post his second two-interception game of the season.

Mariota has a Bye in the pivotal Week 13, and will face Denver (fewest passing yards per game), Jacksonville (fifth-fewest) and Kansas City (14th-fewest) during the fantasy playoff weeks. Mariota wasn’t drafted as a QB1, and he likely won’t close out the season as one, either. Rishard Matthews, his top target, can be sold, as well.

Mark Ingram (RB, NO)

Ingram almost ended up in the buy-low section last week, after the rumors emerged of Tim Hightower possibly overtaking him on the depth chart. However, after a massive Week 9 showing against the 49ers in which he scampered for 158 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries, he finds himself here.

Ingram is — at least he should be — the lead back in New Orleans for the remainder of the season, but keep in mind that this was his first 100-yard game of the season. The Saints have always been a pass-heavy team, and a defense as poor as their current unit doesn’t help the matter. Later in the season, they will encounter some teams with more high-octane offenses, leaving Drew Brees to handle a heavier workload in order to avoid a blowout.

Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA)

Graham is coming off his best statistical performance since joining the Seahawks last year. Monday night produced his first two-score game since Week 12 of the 2014 season, as well as the third 100-yard showing by a tight end against the Bills this year.

Only one of Seattle’s next seven opponents offers a particularly favorable matchup for Graham— Carolina has yielded the third most fantasy points to date. Most notably, in the fantasy football championship (Week 16), the Seahawks will play Arizona, who has kept all tight ends out of the end zone this season. In fact, Graham’s 53 yards in Week 7 are the most allowed by the Cardinals all year.