October 27, 2015

Frankie Soler analyzes a few fantasy football running backs (RB) who may be potential busts and are sending out warning signals heading into Week 8 of the NFL season.

I should tell you right off the bat that it's gotten increasingly difficult to identify running backs that warrant discussing for this list. The truth is, finding players that are genuinely struggling as opposed to just flat out bad is like finding a needle in a haystack at this point.

Even with that little disclaimer in mind, that doesn't mean certain running backs aren't raising an eyebrow for a variety of reasons. We'll be looking at guys who were going in the middle-to-late rounds in fantasy drafts as far as starting running backs are concerned. It feels like we've talked about virtually every high caliber back by now so a week like this was sort of inevitable.

Lastly, a bunch of the players we discussed last week were either one-and-done on this list or had a bye in week seven so it'll be a while before we need to revisit those folks.

Running Back Warning Signals Heading Into Week 8?

Justin Forsett – RB, BAL

Although this might seem like an unusual addition to Warning Signals, given the fact that Justin Forsett is already a top-12 fantasy running back - but in looking at his production, he's been extremely inconsistent. In fact, he's only really had two "great" games all season. Those two outings were in back-to-back weeks against the Steelers and Browns in weeks four and five. Those were the only two games in which Forsett has totaled over 100 yards and considering the fact that the Browns have the worst run defense in the league, racking up 100 yards against them is essentially a given.

The point here is that Justin Forsett's numbers aren't so much a reflection of his ability as an NFL player or even a fantasy running back but rather that his overall production has been heavily inflated by two games. Throw in the fact that so many backs that were drafted ahead of him like Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, and C.J. Anderson have struggled and it's not all that surprising Forsett has basically stumbled into top-12 status.

He's going to continue to be inconsistent going forward, and as someone who was very much anti-Forsett over the summer, this isn't all that surprising. He's clearly the team's primary back so he's going to get enough work to warrant his RB2 status but don't expect many more breakout games. He's a midrange running back who I would group closer to Carlos Hyde and Jonathan Stewart than I would high upside plays like Lamar Miller and Latavius Murray.

Chris Ivory – RB, NYJ

The strange part about adding Chris Ivory to the list this week is the fact that it's basically due to one extremely strange game against the New England Patriots. Not only were the touches and workhorse level production not there, but he was also sort-of-but-kind-of-not-really-maybe-possibly injured. Ivory spent a considerable amount of Sunday's outing on the sidelines riding a stationary bike yet the team didn't actually report any official injury about him. It was a very strange scenario that certainly warrants our attention.

Officially, Ivory has been described as dealing with "hamstring tightness" which doesn't really tell us very much. Considering how effective he's been thus far this season, I don't think this is any sort of major cause for concern. Bilal Powell and Zac Stacy received more work in Ivory's absence and I would prefer Stacy if Ivory were to miss any time but generally it's best to just chalk this up as a quirky day for the Jets' lead dog.

Like I said, it's been a difficult week to identify running backs worth discussing so I figured I'd simply take this opportunity to tell you not to worry about one strange game for a guy who's been a solid fantasy contributor.

Andre Ellington – RB, ARI

As someone who has been a big Andre Ellington fan for several years, it pains me to see him encounter fantasy obstacles seemingly every season. Whether it's injuries, lack of consistent usage, or other players simply outproducing him, Ellington's status as a yearly fantasy sleeper continues to be halted. This year, it's the resurgence of once left-for-dead running back Chris Johnson.

Chris Johnson has been absolutely stellar since signing with the Arizona Cardinals earlier this season. He's emerged as a legitimate top-12 fantasy running back and has pretty much made Andre Ellington irrelevant. Even with Ellington back from an injury, he's just not being worked back into the offense enough to warrant starting or even owning anymore. This is clearly Chris Johnson's job to lose so barring an injury or him completely falling off a cliff, you can safely drop Ellington in re-draft leagues.

It's a real shame for someone who's had huge potential as a fantasy player but we can't just ignore production where we see it. Johnson has been too good for too many weeks and it doesn't look like the breakout for Ellington is happening any time soon. Besides, this is a three-headed monster at best between CJ2K, Ellington, and David Johnson.

Updates From Last Week

We'll have to wait a little while before we talk about the likes of Eddie Lacy and Ronnie Hillman, so that leaves us with just one running back that needs to be revisited this week:

Alfred Morris – RB, WAS

Matt Jones continues to out-touch and outproduce Alfred Morris in every facet of the game and with Jones assuming the pass-catching role with Chris Thompson out, Morris becomes even more fantasy irrelevant. Drop Morris in all formats if you haven't already. The glory days are over.

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