RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 3 in 2026, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 3 of the 2026 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where we examine starting pitchers who had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
It was another weekend of exciting, surprising starts across the league. This week, we'll be looking at three veteran pitchers who are trying to reestablish themselves on new teams. First, we'll break down Dustin May's first good start for the Cardinals. Then, we'll deep dive into Steven Matz's resurgence in Tampa Bay. We'll finish it off with Foster Griffin, who's returned to MLB on a mission after a dominant start against the Brewers on Saturday.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of April 13.
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Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals – 3% Rostered
2025 Stat: 132.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 11.5% K-BB%
04/10 vs. BOS: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 4 K
May had his best start of the young season on Friday, allowing just one earned run in the victory over Boston. May had been hit hard in his first two starts, allowing 13 earned runs over 7.1 innings. It was nice to see a bounce back from the embattled right-hander, and with widespread availability in most fantasy leagues, it’s fair to wonder whether this was the start of things to come for May. Can he go back to being fantasy-relevant, or should he be left on the wire?
Originally a third-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2016, May was a huge pitching prospect coming up through LA’s system. The flame-throwing righty was lauded for his deep arsenal and stellar command of a plus fastball. Many scouts viewed him as a future frontline starter, and it looked like those predictions were going to come true in his first few seasons.
It all went south with Tommy John surgery in 2021, which cost May nearly all of the early 2020s, as he made just 20 total starts between 2021 and 2024. His return in 2025 was less than spectacular as well, with May struggling between Los Angeles and Boston to a 4.96 ERA.
The rebuilding Cardinals gave him a chance in their rotation, and from a stuff perspective, it’s easy to see why another team would give May a shot. May works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, slider, four-seamer, cutter, changeup, and curveball.
It was all about the sinker in this start against Boston, as May threw the pitch 33.3% of the time, more than double his usage in either of his first two starts. Despite the injuries and setbacks May has suffered throughout his career, he still throws his fastballs exceptionally hard.
He’s averaged 96.6 mph with his sinker and 96.8 mph with his four-seamer thus far. That’s an improvement over last year, though still below his peak when he could average 97-98 mph with the heater. The sinker isn’t just about heat for May, as he has averaged 18.1 inches of arm-side movement with the pitch so far. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 14, 2026
That’s some gnarly movement, and while we shouldn’t expect a lot of strikeouts or whiffs from this pitch, it has proven to be effective in generating groundballs. May has a 63.6% ground-ball rate with the pitch this season, along with a 1-degree average launch angle against.
His ground-ball rate against the pitch is 53.7% all time, and maybe if May starts relying on the sinker more often, he could become more of a groundball pitcher. He’s at a 46.3% groundball rate for his career, but if the sinker becomes a bigger focus of his game, he could probably get his groundball rate over 50%.
May also mixed in his four-seam fastball quite a bit in this start, throwing it 28% of the time. That is partially because he’s rarely thrown the sinker to left-handed hitters this season. Only four of his 44 sinkers have been to lefties so far, which is a notable change as he was about even last season. The four-seamer still comes in hot at 96.8 mph, but May has only averaged 14.4 inches of induced vertical break with the pitch, meaning it doesn’t have much “rise” to it.
Fastball rise doesn’t mean that the thrown pitch is literally rising, as that would be impossible; instead, it refers to the hitter’s perception of rise. Because a thrown fastball doesn’t drop at the trajectory the batter expects, the pitch appears to rise, and the batter tends to swing over the pitch, especially when thrown up in the zone. 20 inches of IVB is the gold standard, and anything above 17 inches or so is good. 14.4 inches of IVB is particularly low, and it harms the deceptiveness of May’s four-seamer.
May has just an 18.8% whiff rate with the four-seamer this season, and I don’t see that improving much despite plus velocity. Velocity certainly matters, but it’s not everything when it comes to fastballs. Location and movement are just as important, and May doesn’t really have the movement.
His most used breaking ball this season has been the slider, which he’s thrown 21.4% of the time. He only used it 17% of the time in this start, though he did have a 40% whiff rate with two of his seven swinging strikes coming from this pitch. An 85.8 mph offering, the pitch is quite the change of pace compared to the rest of his arsenal. It’s soft, even for a slider, and doesn’t have big, sharp movement like we often see from hard-throwers.
May might’ve gotten a 40% whiff rate in this start, but he only has a 26.3% whiff rate on the year and had a 27% whiff rate with it last season. A sub-30% whiff rate on a breaking ball is not good, and it has me seriously doubting May’s ability to even put up a league-average strikeout rate. He was at 21.1% last year, which is around league average, but he’s at just 17.5% this season. His fastballs are hard but don’t generate whiffs, and his slider is soft but lacks movement and ultimately fails to generate a decent number of whiffs.
His next most used pitch in this start was the cutter, which he threw 9% of the time. His cutter usage has really fluctuated throughout his career, with having thrown it around 25-30% of the time when he was first called up, to just 9.7% last season.
The good news is that the cutter appears to be improved this season. He’s throwing it harder at 93.4 mph (91.4 mph in 2025), and opponents are hitting just .143 off the pitch after smacking it around last season for a .385 AVG. The cutter also lost five inches of drop, giving it more of an atypical shape that can confound hitters. Here’s a comparison of his 2025 pitch movement profile to his 2026 pitch movement profile (cutter in brown).
2025:
2026:
It’s still early for 2026, but notice how the pitch plot is less clustered around the league average. That makes the pitch more deceptive and ultimately could lead to better results. It’s way too early to crown this reworked cutter a success, but he’s doing all the right things with the pitch so far.
Another encouraging trend with May is the seemingly better control and command on the mound. He was known for his exceptional control coming up and had good walk rates in his first few seasons. That came unraveled as he dealt with injuries, but he has just a 4.8% walk rate through three starts. Time will tell whether that holds, but it’s nice to see from May nonetheless.
Verdict:
May was impressive on Friday, and he’s still only 28 and still throws very hard around 96-97 mph. Unfortunately, while he throws hard, his four-seamer lacks the movement to consistently generate whiffs, and May will likely be lacking in this category all season. His most used secondary pitch is the slider, but he has not been able to generate whiffs with it much, either between 2025 to 26.
From a fantasy perspective, May isn’t all that enticing. He pitches for a rebuilding club and doesn’t give us much strikeout upside, meaning you’re mostly relying on him for innings and ratios.
His walk rate has improved so far, so maybe he could be a better WHIP contributor going forward, but the truth is it’s been a few years since we’ve seen a dominant May, and nothing he’s done so far suggests that that elite, frontline-level starter is coming back anytime soon. He also hasn’t thrown more than 79 pitches in any outing so far, so it’s hard to say whether he’ll give us a lot of innings. Ultimately, he’s fine in a deep league or NL-only league, but I’d avoid him in standard mixed leagues.
Steven Matz, Tampa Bay Rays – 14% Rostered
2025 Stats (bullpen): 76.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 15.5% K-BB%
04/10 vs. NYY: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Matz has been on fire in his last two starts, allowing just three earned runs over 11 innings along with 15 strikeouts. He’s also 3-0 on the season, and after a successful year in the bullpen in 2025, Matz is back to starting and looking like an early-season waiver wire stud. Is the veteran lefty turning a new leaf, or is it just early-season luck?
Originally a second-round pick by the Mets all the way back in the primitive year of 2009, Matz was a huge pitching prospect coming up for New York, alongside guys like Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, and Zack Wheeler. He was very successful at first, but like many Mets pitchers from that era, he dealt with a bevy of injuries that sapped a lot of his oomph and made him a less effective pitcher. He’s spent the last few years bouncing in and out of the Cardinals' rotation, and was excellent out of the bullpen for St. Louis and Boston last season.
Matz works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, changeup, curveball, and slider. His most used pitch in this start was actually a tie between the sinker and changeup, each of which he threw 36% of the time. We will start with his sinker, as that is his most used pitch overall this season, and has consistently been his most used pitch throughout his career.
A 93 mph offering, Matz’s velocity is down 1.5 mph from last season, when he was pitching in the bullpen. He was around 94 mph as a starter before his year in relief, so this does represent a loss in velocity, not just a role change. Matz has lost a few ticks of velocity compared to his peak, but that is to be expected for a 34-year-old who’s suffered a lifetime of pitching injuries.
Matz’s sinker isn’t all that hard, and doesn’t have a ton of movement either. He’s averaged 12.4 inches of IVB and 15.5 inches of arm-side movement with the sinker so far, which is about in line with last year’s numbers. The frustrating thing about Matz’s sinker isn’t the below-average velocity or lack of movement; it’s the inability to generate groundballs. Matz has just a 45% ground-ball rate with the sinker all-time, and just a 28.6% ground-ball rate this season.
If the sinker can’t get groundballs, can’t generate whiffs, and is below average in velocity and movement, what is it good for? Matz has done a good job of inducing weak contact with the pitch, but that’s just not enough to excite me or to get me to spend my precious FAAB.
The sinker is sort of unimpressive, but the real gem of this start was the changeup, which Matz threw 32% of the time as well. Averaging 82.9 mph, Matz notched eight of his 13 whiffs with the changeup in this start, and has a dominant 41.7% whiff rate with the pitch so far. Matz’s changeup is a little unique for its high spin rate, averaging 2405 RPM this season. It also has plus movement with 15.7 inches of horizontal break. Here’s an example from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 14, 2026
It’s a good pitch, definitely Matz’s best offering, and something he can use to neutralize right-handed hitters. That being said, I’m skeptical of its ability to generate this many whiffs. Matz had just a 20.2% whiff rate with the changeup last season and a 27.2% whiff rate in 2024.
He’s rarely been able to keep his whiff rate with the pitch above 30%, much less 40%. Matz has also had a sub-20% strikeout rate in the last two seasons, and I don’t suddenly think at 34 years old he’s transformed into a strikeout monster. The changeup is good, but I doubt Matz can sustain this high of a whiff rate over time.
His next most used pitch has been the curveball, which Matz has thrown 13.9% of the time, also mostly to right-handers. It was actually his least thrown pitch in this start at just 11%, and he got just one whiff with it as well. A 78.1 mph offering, Matz’s curveball is slow and loopy, and it’s been a better groundball pitch for him than the sinker, with a 49.7% career groundball rate with the curveball.
The curveball has painfully average movement and spin, and hasn’t really been a strikeout pitch for Matz these past few years. He has routinely put up sub-30% whiff rates with the pitch, and that’s just not what we want to see from a breaking ball. The curveball is a nice complement to his changeup for dealing with righties, but it’s not that special of a pitch.
Matz does mix in a slider from time to time, but has just an 8.6% usage rate this season and a 7.4% usage rate all-time. It does have a 35% whiff rate along with increased horizontal movement and spin, so maybe it’s a reworked pitch he can utilize more often and more effectively going forward, but we’ll need to see it from him first. He threw the pitch 16% of the time in this start, and it got four of his 13 whiffs, so maybe this was him trying to use it more often.
It’s hard to say after just one start, but utilizing this pitch, especially in favor of the curveball and sinker, could lead to better results for Matz. It’s hard to believe that his current 27% strikeout rate will hold, but maybe if he uses this pitch more often, he could stay around league average, something he’s struggled to do the last two years.
Verdict:
Matz is back in a starting rotation and has been downright dominant in his last two appearances. He’s utilizing his changeup to great effectiveness so far, and it has an impressive 41.7% whiff rate. Matz has usually been around a 20-25% with the pitch in years past, and there isn’t much fundamentally different about the pitch, so I’m skeptical that this whiff rate will hold.
His sinker is a liability, with Matz averaging a career-low 93 MPH along with just a 28.6% ground-ball rate. His curveball is a fine complementary option along with the changeup, but again has shown questionable strikeout capabilities over the years.
His slider appears to be reworked as it’s five mph softer with more vertical movement and spin. It’s more of a slurve than a traditional slider this year. Matz has gotten strong results with a 35.7% whiff rate so far, but it’s only been three starts. All together, this seems like a solid veteran arm that has been overperforming over his last two starts.
It’s hard to envision a world where Matz is a plus strikeout pitcher, though he could put up decent ratios in that ballpark with his strong command. Not a league winner, but a fine pitcher to stream here and there when the matchup is right. His next start is Thursday against the White Sox, and it doesn’t get much better than that.
Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals – 7% Rostered
2025 Stats (NPB): 78 IP, 1.62 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 19.2% K-BB%
04/11 @ MIL: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
Griffin was outstanding Saturday night, carrying a no-hitter into the sixth inning and blanking Milwaukee for his second victory of the season. Griffin now has a sparkling 1.76 ERA through his first three starts. An All-Star in Japan’s NPB, Griffin pitched his way back to the majors and inked a one-year deal with Washington this offseason. It seems like the entire MLB was sleeping on him, but is it time for us to wake up?
Originally a first-round pick by the Royals in 2014, Griffin wasn’t much of a prospect despite his high draft position. It took him all the way until 2020 to finally make his MLB debut, and he pitched in just seven games total between 2020-22 before flaming out and winding up in Japan.
Griffin dominated overseas, especially in 2025 when he had a 1.62 ERA in 78 innings. Griffin works with a seven-pitch mix consisting of a cutter, four-seamer, sweeper, changeup, curveball, splitter, and sinker. That’s a lot of pitches, and he’s thrown each one at least 5% of the time, meaning he mixes them all in when on the mound.
Griffin’s most used pitch in this start (and this season) was the cutter, which he threw 38% of the time. An 88.1 mph offering, Griffin’s cutter was touted as his best pitch in Japan and a key offering in his return to the majors. Cutters aren’t usually big strikeout pitches, and that’s been true for Griffin so far. He has just a 22.4% whiff rate with the cutter so far, though he got four of his six whiffs with it against the Brewers.
Griffin’s cutter has averaged 7.5 inches of IVB and 5.2 inches of glove-side movement, which isn’t terrible for a cutter, but also not exceptional. Despite having a .250 AVG against, Griffin’s cutter has actually been hit rather hard, with a 95.1 mph average exit velocity against and a .552 xSLG.
Truthfully, I’m not usually a big fan of starters who utilize cutters as one of their primary pitches in fantasy. It’s sort of a junkballer move. The fastball or primary breaking ball usually lacks juice, so the pitcher is forced to rely on a cutter to fool hitters. It can work, but rarely do these pitchers excel beyond walking a tightrope.
I fear that may be the case for Griffin too, who’s skirted by thanks to a .214 BABIP and a 98.7% LOB rate. It’s only three starts, but he already has a huge disparity between his actual ERA of 1.76 and his ERA estimators, such as his 4.64 FIP or 4.44 SIERA.
Griffin’s next most used pitch has been the four-seam fastball, and boy has it been hit hard. A 91.7 mph offering, Griffin’s fastball is both soft and lacks significant movement. He has averaged just 15.9 inches of IVB and 3.7 inches of arm-side movement with the pitch so far. He also somehow has a 0% whiff rate with the pitch so far. 0%. Not one MLB hitter has swung and missed at Griffin’s fastball so far.
Batters also have a .333 BA, .667 SLG, and .523 wOBA off Griffin’s fastball so far. Again, small sample size, but the .331 xBA, .512 xSLG, and .469 xwOBA aren’t exactly encouraging. Even though Griffin is a lefty, which is more forgiving from a velocity perspective, I’m not sure this fastball can hang at the major league level. Maybe he’ll end up relying on it less often, given his myriad of pitches to choose from, but a pitcher can’t abandon the fastball entirely, and Griffin’s looks like a liability.
The usage of his other pitches has been somewhat equal, but his most used breaking ball has been the sweeper at 12.6%. An 80.1 mph offering, Griffin’s sweeper is soft and loopy, with 16.7 inches of glove-side movement. He only has a 22.2% whiff rate with the pitch so far, and batters are hitting .286 with a .349 xBA and .431 xSLG. So, not exactly exciting results with it so far. It’s really early to make big declarations about Griffin, but this sweeper doesn’t look like an exceptional pitch.
As I mentioned, Griffin sort of mixes in his secondaries about equally, but one pitch that has stood out in a limited sample is the splitter. Griffin picked up the splitter in Japan, and it was touted as one of the pitchers that helped transform him into an effective pitcher in NPB. An 81.3 mph offering, Griffin’s splitter is noteworthy for its low spin and crazy movement. He’s averaged just 1151 RPM with the splitter so far, and take a look at his pitch movement profile for this season (splitter in teal).
That’s some horizontal movement, and Griffin may be able to generate whiffs at a good clip with a pitch like this. He’s only thrown the splitter 8.8% of the time so far, but has a 36.4% whiff rate. We’ve yet to see him lean into that splitter (or any of his secondary stuff for that matter), but perhaps as the season goes along, he will begin to mix it in more often.
He’s sort of a kitchen sink guy as it stands, throwing everything and anything to try and get outs. That makes sense, given the lackluster nature of his cutter and four-seamer, but this splitter could be his best pitch if he starts using it more often.
Verdict:
Griffin has exploded back onto the scene, shutting down three of the NL’s top teams in Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Milwaukee in his first three starts. That may be enough to have fantasy managers excited, but I’m going to pump the brakes here. His most used pitch is a mediocre cutter, and his 91 mph fastball has proven wholly ineffective despite early-season success. What happens when his .214 BABIP and 98.7% LOB rate normalize?
Griffin does have some interesting secondary pitches, especially the splitter, but we need to see him use it more often to rack up whiffs and strikeouts. For now, he’s a rather low upside option who pitches for a rebuilding club. He hasn’t completed six innings yet, so who knows how helpful he’ll be in terms of wins and volume. Like with Matz, I’d use him in the right matchup, but I don’t think he’s an early-season breakout.
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