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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 1. Picks with confidence points for Week 1 of the 2025 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
We know that college football is really back once the ESPN College Pick'em pools are opened. Now, we can finally make some picks! As those of you who have been around for a while know, we run a Pick'em pool for RotoBaller readers. We encourage you to join because RotoBaller is giving away some prizes aside from the ones that ESPN offers.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you want to play the spread version as well, you can join that group here. There are no extra prizes for that group unless we get enough participants.
Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. The first weeks are usually a bit easier, but there are some fun games in the real opening week!
(1) Miami (FL) over Notre Dame
This isn’t a request.
This is a challenge.
On August 31st, we Orange Out Hard Rock Stadium.
Be loud. Be relentless. Be the difference maker.
Tickets: https://t.co/mRk2My8KCG pic.twitter.com/gDdqvaGW9P
— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) August 17, 2025
The most amusing thing about this is Miami having an Orange out for Catholics vs. Convicts. Whether it was on purpose or not, it's a nice little nod to the rivalry in the '80s. Lou Holtz once said that he didn't agree with the naming since "not all Notre Dame players are Catholic." Add in another layer for us, Lou!
As for the game itself, I expect a good one. Miami's home-field advantage isn't usually as big as some stadiums. I expect a large number of fans to make their way down from Indiana. However, I'm siding with the experienced quarterback here. It's not completely fair to say that Miami is rebuilding (as some have). The Hurricanes imported plenty of talent.
(2) Clemson over LSU
Both teams have experienced quarterbacks. LSU has more talent on offense. The Clemson defense is likely a little better. When it comes down to it, I trust Cade Klubnik more than Garrett Nussmeier. I never thought I would type that statement two years ago. The continuity of everything Clemson, and the home game, gives it the edge in the Battle of Death Valley.
(3) UTEP over Utah State
This is an instance where the public is very heavy on Utah State (96%), but is it warranted? We know that Bronco Mendenhall is going to show up with a tough and disciplined team. UTEP was horrible last year, but there is a reason to expect better results this year.
Former 5 Star QB Malachi Nelson will be starting at UTEP this year 👀
Can Nelson work his way up to becoming one of the best QBs in college football? pic.twitter.com/hxFNyPYqmL
— TWSN (@TWSN___) August 24, 2025
Malachi Nelson was the top overall recruit in the 2023 class and committed to USC. He never played for the Trojans, then transferred to Boise State, where he lost the job to Maddux Madsen last year. Now, he finally gets his chance. That alone gives UTEP an edge that the Aggies can't come close to.
(4) Texas over Ohio State
Texas @ Ohio State.
• #1 Team playing at the Defending Champs
• Rematch of the CFP Semifinal
• Arch Manning + Julian Sayin with their first major starts as Former Elite QB recruits
• Lee Corso’s final College GameDay
All of this Week 1🍿🤘🌰
H/T OSUBuckeyeFootball on TT pic.twitter.com/wGTNn8hF5s
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) August 24, 2025
We are used to some big games in Week 1, but this is one of the bigger games that we've had in a while. This feels like Alabama going down to Texas a few years ago. Which brings me to my next point: Texas is used to these big games early in the season under Steve Sarkisian.
Arch Manning has had a little more experience than Julian Sayin, but Sayin being in the system for a year before his first real game action can only help. I'm more concerned with Ohio State replacing both Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. It will do so from within, but that is a lot of talent to be without in Week 1.
As with the playoff game against Tennessee last year, I think we'll see plenty of Orange in the Stadium. It feels like Texas should win this game since it is the top-ranked team in nearly every college football publication. I expect a close game, and the public is split 50/50 on this one.
I thought about putting more points on this one, but that's an unnecessary risk. With the public split evenly on this game, you're not going to gain that much one way or the other. Save that upset pick for one where the public is heavier on the side of the favorite.
(5) Arizona over Hawaii
Hawaii HC Timmy Chang says he expects Micah Alejado to be able to play Saturday after getting treatment all week.
Word on the street is he is currently in a boot.
— Jason Scheer (@jasonscheer) August 25, 2025
This is why I'm not as heavy on Arizona as most. The public is picking Arizona at 98%, but I'm guessing that they didn't watch the Stanford game. Micah Alejado played almost three-fourths of the game on one leg. Stanford is still worse than Arizona, but I'm not sure how much worse. This team was bad with Tetairoa McMillan last year. How bad will it be without him in 2025? Maybe bad enough to lose to Hawaii and a one-legged quarterback.
(6) Fresno State over Georgia Southern
I don't feel as though Fresno played a bad game against Kansas. That Kansas defense is underrated, and when Jalon Daniels is on, few teams can stop him. Fresno's offense should have a much easier go of it in the real Week 1.
(7) Tulane over Northwestern
Jake Retzlaff was run out of Provo due to violating BYU's Honor Code. He winds up at Tulane, which lost its QB (Darian Mensah) to Duke before November was even over. Tulane is still a trendy pick as a Group of 5 sleeper, but I don't see it. It lost a lot from last year.
This game could be closer than most think. Cam Porter was a good back on a bad team last year. Northwestern shored up the QB position by adding SMU's Preston Stone. He had a strong season for the Mustangs in 2023. The Wildcats are going to make Tulane work for this.
(8) Oregon State over California
What is going on at Cal? In 2023, this team was heading upward with true freshman Fernando Mendoza slinging to another freshman in J. Michael Sturdivant. RB Jaydn Ott was one of the best in the country. Two short years later, and they are all gone.
Cal brought in Devin Brown (the guy who lost the job to Kyle McCord at Ohio State in 2023) to replace Mendoza. Jacob De Jesus is a nice grab at receiver from UNLV, but I need to see something out of Cal first.
Oregon State once again doesn't have a conference, but it is on to the next reclamation project at QB: Maalik Murphy. Murphy transferred from Texas and started at Duke last year. Now, he's on to school No. 3 and is coming into a good situation. Anthony Hankerson is an underrated back. The Oregon State offense looks good enough for me to pick it.
That said, the public is only 10% on Cal. I'm not completely sold on Murphy or Oregon State. I'm nervous about this one.
(9) South Carolina over Virginia Tech
The public is heavy on South Carolina (97%), but I do think the Cocks will have some growing pains here with Rahsul Faison learning the offense. Virginia Tech is a solid team. I expect the Gamecocks to pull away, but this could be a closer game than most think.
If Virginia Tech beats South Carolina this weekend I’ll do whatever the top comment says. Book it. #SulFree #Beamerball #FSUkid #umbrellamassacrekid
— John “Pork” Gotti (@Gottithankyou) August 25, 2025
It's nice to know that college football fans didn't learn anything from last season. Florida State had a generationally bad season, and many think it was because a fan refused to follow through on a bet made before the Georgia Tech game. When are people going to learn to just bet with money or beers like normal people?
(10) Utah over UCLA
Here's a look at Utah's Matchup History vs UCLA the last 10 seasons. What do you think the score will be? pic.twitter.com/2By3dycsVF
— WhittsBurner (@WhittsBurner) August 25, 2025
Devon Dampier was very good at New Mexico last year. UCLA wasn't much better than the average Mountain West team last year. The public is going heavier on UCLA because they recognize the name Nico Iamaleava.
Nico is in a better place at UCLA than he was last year at Tennessee, but I'll believe his success when I see it. Dampier and Utah's defense are known commodities. The Big 12 (16) gets little national love for some reason. It was the most entertaining conference last year, and will be again if Farmageddon was any indication.
I'm trying to steal points here because I believe in Kyle Whittingham and Utah. This is always a tough team, even if the talent isn't on par with the rest of the league. UCLA won't be as bad as last year, but I'm not sure it finishes at .500, either. Utah is a Big 12 (16) contender.
