RADIO
Eric Cross' first half fantasy baseball breakouts, all-stars, buys/sells at the outfield position. Can they keep it up, and how is he valuing them moving forward?
The first half of the 2025 Major League season is behind us, and we've seen plenty of exciting players break out so far this season. I've already discussed my first-half infield All-Stars, and now it's time to head to the outfield grass to break down my five outfield first-half All-Stars.
There were only two qualifications to make this proverbial all-star team:
- Each player needed to have a pre-season ADP outside the Top 100 overall, and
- They needed to have an impactful or great season for fantasy
That second part should be obvious. I'll be discussing each player's season to date, whether or not I think they can maintain this level of production moving forward, and where I'm valuing them for both redraft and dynasty long-term. This will be a three-part series, including infielders and pitchers, so make sure you check out my author page for the other two parts!
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
Out of this entire three-part series, the king of the first-half All-Stars has to be Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs. In his first 371 plate appearances, Crow-Armstrong has racked up 23 home runs, 26 stolen bases, 66 RBI, and 64 runs scored while slashing .270/.308/.552. That's a 162-game pace of 41 home runs, 47 stolen bases, 119 RBI, and 115 runs scored. Crow-Armstrong has performed at an elite level so far, but can he maintain elite production and value moving forward?
What immediately stands out with Crow-Armstrong is his elite combination of speed, athleticism, and defense. This guy is going to win more than one Gold Glove award in his career and currently sports a 97th-percentile sprint speed. He's only been caught on four of his 30 stolen base attempts this season and has an 86% success rate in his first 64 stolen base attempts in the Majors. With his elite speed, willingness to run, and high efficiency, Crow-Armstrong should be an annual threat to eclipse 40 steals.
BALL STOOD NO CHANCE pic.twitter.com/TiLhVTOfgz
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 4, 2025
As for his contributions with the bat, Crow-Armstrong isn't one to wow you with a savant page full of red sliders. His barrel rate is near-elite at 13.6%, but his 89.4 mph AVG EV and 42% hard-hit rate, while above average, don't stand out. But what Crow-Armstrong does better than most hitters in baseball is maximize his above-average power by hitting the ball at ideal angles, as evidenced by his 20.9° average launch angle, 67.8% Air Rate, and 28% Pull-Air Rate. Crow-Armstrong being an annual threat for 30 homers shouldn't surprise anyone.
As for contact, Crow-Armstrong's 81.3% zone and 72.1% overall contact rates are slightly below league average but certainly not bad, and given his solid power and elite speed, he's likely always going to run a higher-than-league-average BABIP. But the one area of concern is aggressiveness, which shows up in his 44% chase rate and 4.6% walk rate. If you can deal with a lower OBP, though, Crow-Armstrong has what it takes to stick as an elite fantasy contributor moving forward.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Baseball is just a little bit more fun when Byron Buxton is healthy and excelling as he has so far this season. Buxton is already up to 19 home runs and 15 steals in 309 plate appearances, along with 52 RBI, 55 runs scored, and a .268/.333/.536 slash line. You could make a case for this being Buxton's most productive offensive season since way back in 2017, which is also the last time he exceeded 400 plate appearances.
As usual, Buxton is hitting the ball hard this season with a 15.2% barrel rate, 91.3 mph AVG EV, and a 53.3% hard-hit rate. All three of those rank in the top 25% of hitters so far this season. Buxton has also increased his zone contact rate from 77.5% to 80.3% and his overall contact rate from 67.9% to 70.1% while dropping his chase rate by 5%. He's still a below-average contact hitter and always has been. But it's encouraging to see those metrics tick up this season.
Oh yeah, Buxton also has a 100th-percentile sprint speed and is running more than he has in a long time. We didn't even know what the word COVID meant the last time Buxton had double-digit steals in a season (2019).
As fun as Buxton has been this season, I'm not looking to buy in dynasty leagues and would recommend trying to sell high right now. The name Buxton will always carry plenty of weight in dynasty leagues, especially when he's playing as well as he is right now. But as much as I hate to say it, I just don't trust Buxton to stay healthy year in and year out. Sure, this might end up being his second season of more than 500 plate appearances, but it will have taken him nearly a decade to achieve that.
Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers
After an up-and-down rookie season in 2024, Andy Pages has fully broken out here in 2025. In 349 plate appearances, Pages currently has 17 home runs, seven steals, 58 RBI, and 45 runs scored with a .293/.332/.503 slash line. Pages ranks second on the loaded Dodgers in home runs, third in runs scored, and leads the team in RBI by two over Shohei Ohtani.
This breakout really has happened over the last two and a half months, as Pages had a terrible first 20 games of the season, where he slashed just .159/.274/.270. In 66 games since then, Pages is slashing .326/.348/.559 with 39 runs, 14 doubles, 15 home runs, and 53 RBI.
One area of Pages' profile that really impresses me is his ability to hit all three pitch types well. Pages is hitting over .240 with a SLG over .450 and a contact rate north of 74% against fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches. Overall, Pages has recorded an 86.9% zone and 78.1% overall contact rate while only striking out 19.8% of the time. He can be a little aggressive, as evidenced by his 4.6% walk rate and 35.5% chase rate, but Pages has the contact skills to make it work.
As for Pages' power, he's far from a masher, but he currently sports a solid 8.5% barrel rate, 89.1 mph AVG EV, and a 39.4% hard-hit rate. But as was the case with Crow-Armstrong, Pages hits the ball at ideal angles with a 64.9% Air Rate, 18.9% Pull-Air Rate, and a 39.4% Sweet-Spot rate.
While I don't envision Pages making another notable jump up rankings and becoming a Top-50 player, I do believe in the skill set allowing him to stick as a Top-100 player moving forward who could hit 25-30 home runs annually with a solid average and double-digit steals.
Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
As I'm writing this, Jo Adell just had a 15-game hitting streak snapped on July 5. Bet you never thought you'd see "Jo Adell" and "15-game hitting streak" in the same sentence, did you? Well, it's true, and we're finally seeing Adell performing well for an extended period this season. In 293 plate appearances so far, Adell has mashed 19 home runs with 52 RBI, 35 runs scored, and a respectable .251/.322/.506 slash line.
Jo Adell's 3-run shot ties it up in Toronto!
(MLB x @Essilor) pic.twitter.com/vvvIgMZIJa
— MLB (@MLB) July 5, 2025
We've seen Adell beast out in smaller spurts before, but nothing as prolonged as what we're currently witnessing. Adell has a legitimate shot at 40 home runs this season thanks to his elite quality of contact metrics, currently sporting a 15.8% barrel rate, 91 mph AVG EV, and 49% hard-hit rate. Adell's .585 xSLG is also considerably higher than his actual SLG. He also has an ideal 19.9% Pull-Air Rate.
But the Adell breakout hasn't just been about his power. He's also trimmed his strikeout rate down to 23.2% while improving his zone and overall contact rates to 81.2% and 71.3%, respectively. Those are still below league average but a far cry from where he was a few years ago.
Do I think Adell can become a Top 50 player? No. But I am encouraged by the gains Adell has made this season and wouldn't rule out him providing Top-100 or Top-150 value moving forward, especially if the contact and strikeout rate improvements are here to stay.
Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
If I told you before the season that Kyle Stowers would have the ninth-best wRC+ among qualified outfielders right before the all-star break, you probably would've looked at me as if I had three heads. But that's exactly what has happened this season. In his first 319 plate appearances, Stowers is slashing .283/.355/.519 with 16 home runs, 46 RBI, and 40 runs scored.
After slashing .208/.268/.333 with a 35.4% strikeout rate in 209 plate appearances last season, it's safe to say that nobody envisioned this breakout happening for Stowers in 2025. But is it legitimate? Yes and no.
The area where I'm fully buying in is Stowers' power. The Stower-Power has been impressive this season with a 19.7% barrel rate, 91.8 mph AVG EV, and a 53.4% hard-hit rate. The barrel and hard-hit rates rank in the Top % of hitters this season, and Stowers also has a 91st percentile bat speed, 80th percentile Sweet-Spot rate, and a 94th percentile xSLG. He's on pace for right around 30 home runs this season, and that could become the norm for Stowers moving forward.
However, I'm not a believer in Stowers maintaining an average above .280 moving forward. His quality of contact metrics will help him run higher BABIPs, but his current .364 BABIP is the fifth-highest mark among qualified outfielders this season and will be hard to maintain long-term. Stowers is also striking out at a 29.2% clip with a lowly 74.8% zone and 66% overall contact rate. I'd bank on him being more of a .250 hitter moving forward than someone who hits above .280.
Long-term, Stowers, being a .250/30 type, is still a valuable commodity to roster in fantasy leagues. That's why I'm not recommending him as a no-doubt sell right now. If you can get a Top-100 player in return, I'd be fine trading him. But if not, I'd have no issue holding Stowers and having him as my OF3 moving forward.
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