
Eric Cross' first half fantasy baseball breakouts, all-stars, buys/sells at each infield position. Can they keep it up, and how is he valuing them moving forward?
It's hard to believe the first half of the Major League Baseball season is in the books, but we're now in the second half of the season with the All-Star break approaching quickly. It's been an exciting first three months of baseball, with plenty of players breaking out and/or exceeding expectations so far compared to where they were drafted. These players can be considered fantasy baseball all-stars so far, and that's what I'll be talking about today.
There were only two qualifications to make this proverbial all-star team:
- Each player needed to have a pre-season ADP outside the Top-100 overall, and
- They needed to be having an impactful or great season for fantasy
That second part should be obvious. I'll be discussing each player's season to date, whether or not I think they can maintain this level of production moving forward, and where I'm valuing them for both redraft and dynasty long-term. This will be a three-part series, including outfielders and pitchers, so make sure you check out my author page for the other two parts! All three will be out this week.
Catcher: Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies
While Cal Raleigh is head, shoulders, knees, and toes above every other catcher this season offensively, you can make an argument that the second most valuable fantasy catcher has been Colorado's Hunter Goodman. In 310 plate appearances so far, Goodman is slashing .287/.332/.512 with 14 home runs, 17 doubles, 48 RBI, and 40 runs scored. He ranks second in home runs, RBI, SLG, AVG, and ISO at the catcher position, and third in runs scored.
This is the same guy who hit below the Mendoza Line in 2024, so I'm sure many are wondering if this performance is legitimate. I'm going to say mostly yes.
Goodman's quality of contact metrics are impressive this season with a 12.5% barrel rate, 92.1 mph AVG EV, and a 51.4% hard-hit rate, and he also has an ideal 22.1% Pull-Air rate. The 78.7% zone and 67.4% overall contact rates are both below average, but getting the Coors Field BABIP boost should help keep the AVG respectable, as long as those rates don't crater.
Given the contact rates, a higher chase rate, and a lower walk rate, I do think Goodman's aggressiveness hurts his AVG a bit moving forward, and he's more in the .250-.260 range. But this is also a perennial 25-30 homer bat in the making who could stick as a Top-5 catcher moving forward.
First Base: Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays
Early in the season, we had several notable breakouts seemingly in the early stages at the first base position. Most of those breakouts have fallen off or simply been inconsistent since then, with the exception of Jonathan Aranda.
If I told you before the season that Aranda would currently be third in the Majors in AVG, you probably would've shot a funny look in my direction. But that's exactly where we stand as we close out the third full month of the Major League season.
467 FEET 😳
Jonathan Aranda sends this one to the warehouse! pic.twitter.com/qApn5WfiOg
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2025
Aranda is currently slashing .330/.411/.504 with 10 home runs in 304 plate appearances this season. And while all 10 home runs have come against right-handed pitching, he's still hitting .322 in 69 plate appearances against left-handers, which has helped Aranda avoid a strict platoon role.
Can that average stick? His .316 xBA seems to think so, but a 79.1% zone contact rate has me more pessimistic. At least for Aranda keeping the average well north of .300.
I'd expect the average to drop a bit moving forward, but Aranda should still provide a solid average as his overall contact rate is above-average, and his quality of contact metrics are high across the board.
Aranda ranks among the league leaders with his 11.8% barrel rate, 93 mph AVG EV, and 55.9% hard-hit rate. Even with some AVG regression, Aranda looks poised to stick as a Top-10 first baseman for fantasy moving forward, who can hit for both a good AVG and push or exceed 20 home runs annually.
Second Base: Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Aranda isn't the only one in Tampa Bay's infield to have an impressive first half of the season. Surprisingly, Brandon Lowe has been able to stay healthy this season and has been arguably the best fantasy second baseman so far due to the time Ketel Marte missed earlier in the season.
After being under 450 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons, Lowe is on pace for around 600 plate appearances this season and has gotten back to his old mashing ways.
In 319 plate appearances, Lowe has already cranked 17 home runs with 48 RBI, 51 runs scored, and a .275/.323/.481 slash line. A 100/35/100 season is within reach here. Lowe is still running below average zone (78%) and overall (68.5%) contact rates, but he's been impacting the ball well with a 12.7% barrel rate, 92.2 mph AVG EV, and 46.8% hard-hit rate.
With that said, I'd recommend selling him right now, both in redraft and dynasty leagues. Why? Well, I'm just not confident that Lowe can stay healthy. Sure, he could make me eat my words here if his second half is as good as his first half, but this is a player who has exceeded 500 plate appearances in a season just once in his career.
Third Base: Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks
Entering the season, Eugenio Suarez was my top draft-day target at the third base position, given his ADP outside of the Top-150 picks. Sure, the average had mostly been poor, but he was a consistent source of power and run production throughout his career.
Luckily, I was able to get a handful of Suarez shares this season, and those shares are paying notable dividends so far. Only Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge have more home runs than Suarez (25) this season, and he also ranks 3rd in RBI with 67.
HOME RUN NO. 300 FOR EUGENIO SUÁREZ 💥 pic.twitter.com/iC6wjg5Lxr
— MLB (@MLB) June 21, 2025
Suarez has provided everything I expected from him this season, and then some. Even with my confidence, I didn't expect him to be on a 50/130 pace, or for him to be hitting .253, but the decent AVG is just icing on the power cake here. Suarez is hitting the ball harder this season than he ever has, with a career-best 50.9% hard-hit rate so far. He's also trimmed his strikeout rate to a manageable 25.6%, and has a zone contact rate just a hair below league-average.
Given that his age starts with the three, Suarez probably doesn't appeal to anyone rebuilding in dynasty, but he's a phenomenal target for any contending team or even teams who think they might be contending in the next year or two.
Shortstop: Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
While many would say that Hunter Brown is the fantasy MVP for the Houston Astros so far, Jeremy Peña deserves to be in that conversation as well. In his first 350 plate appearances, Peña has slashed an impressive .322/.378/.489 with 11 home runs, 15 steals, 40 RBI, and 48 runs scored. That's right around a 95/20/80/30 pace this season, which even the biggest Peña supporter has to be surprised by.
Peña's quality of contact metrics are slightly up from 2024, but still just a hair above league average with a 7.9% barrel rate, 88.3 mph AVG EV, and a 41.5% hard-hit rate. He's never stood out in that area, but Peña maximizes his power with a 43% pull rate and 19.6 pull-air rate, which bodes well at his home ballpark. Peña also makes plenty of contact in the zone (88.1%) and is only striking out 15.7% of the time.
While there are plenty of positives in the profile, the profile also doesn't scream Top-25 fantasy stud either. I'm not saying Peña's breakout is fluky or that he can't stick as a Top 50-75 player long-term. But if you could get a Top 25-50 player for him via trade right now, I wouldn't be opposed to selling him while his value is quite high.
Corner Infielder: Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals
Maybe it's because he's in a small market in Kansas City, but it feels like not enough people are talking about how productive of a season Maikel Garcia is having right now. After slashing just .231/.281/.332 and tanking his value last season, Garcia has rebounded in a major way here in 2025, slashing .311/.370/.485 in his first 332 plate appearances this season with eight home runs, 18 steals, 38 RBI, and 36 runs scored.
Maikel Garcia makes it a 4-run inning for the @Royals 💪 pic.twitter.com/Id26NpIueW
— MLB (@MLB) June 19, 2025
Even when the surface stats weren't great last season, many of Garcia's underlying metrics painted a different picture and hinted at more success at the plate in 2025. Garcia has a near 90% zone contact rate right now with an 84.2% overall contact rate, 22.7% chase rate, and a career-best 8.4% walk rate and 13.9% strikeout rate. Garcia also continues to hit the ball hard with a 91.3 mph AVG EV and 44.4% hard-hit rate.
Even if he's never a 20-homer bat, Garcia has the contact abilities to provide a high average annually with 15-20 home runs and over 25 steals as well. He's far from a burner, but Garcia is a solid runner who has shown the willingness to run often. Is he a stud? No. But is Garcia a Top-100 player in my eyes moving forward? Absolutely.
Middle Infielder: Jacob Wilson, Athletics
Remember how I said that Aranda was third in the Majors in batting average so far? Well, one of the two players ahead of him is rookie shortstop Jacob Wilson. The other is that Aaron Judge fellow. The 2023 #6 overall pick has exceeded everyone's expectations so far this season and has been the top rookie for fantasy so far, thanks to a .340/.382/.474 slash line with nine home runs, five steals, 40 RBI, and 42 runs scored in 336 plate appearances.
This first half of the season has been incredible for Wilson, but I'm more in the sell camp than the buy camp here. There's no denying that the contact abilities are elite, as Wilson has a 92.1% zone and 90.2% overall contact rate right now. And honestly, it would surprise me if he didn't win a few batting titles before he hangs up his cleats. However, this is one of the worst power hitters in baseball.
Yes, he's going to run into a few homers here and there due to making so much contact, but seven of his nine homers have come on breaking balls where his xSLG is a whopping 151 points below his actual slugging percentage. And overall, Wilson has a 2.4% barrel rate, 85.9 mph AVG EV, and a 26.3% hard-hit rate. All three of those metrics are in the bottom 6% of hitters. Wilson is also running a 54% groundball rate.
While he won't be a zero in the home run department, I'd also bet a large sum of money that he never even sniffs 20 home runs in a season and is more in the 10-13 range annually.
Wilson is one of the best pure hitters in baseball and can definitely provide decent fantasy value moving forward, but he's certainly not a stud fantasy player, and that's why I haven't pushed him into my Top-10 shortstop rankings for redraft or dynasty. Given where the perceived value is, Wilson is a decent sell candidate in all formats.
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