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Jamie Steed analyzes the top six fantasy baseball pitchers from 2025 drafts to see how they performed during the season. His top risers and fallers include Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Logan Gilbert, Garrett Crochet, more
The 2025 baseball season is in the books. Now seems like the perfect time to look back and reflect on the season: What went right and what went wrong. One of the biggest determinants will likely have been how the starting pitchers you drafted early performed throughout the year.
Our focus here is on the first six starting pitchers drafted in 2025, according to their Yahoo! average draft position (ADP). We'll examine the pitchers' performance and grade them based on their Yahoo! end-of-season ranking compared to their ADP. We'll also offer a 2026 outlook for each.
The report card for the subsequent six SPs drafted can be found here in Part One. Don't forget to follow RotoBaller on X to get notified when that article drops. The team will also be bringing you all the preseason baseball content you need.
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Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 15
End of Season Ranking: 6
2025 Stats: 32 GS, 187 2/3 IP, 10-10 W-L, 1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 216 K
Grade: A
It should come as no surprise that Skenes' 2025 campaign gets such a high grade. His sophomore year went as well as expected and resulted in his first (of likely many) NL Cy Young Awards. You could easily argue that Skenes deserves an A+.
While that may be the case, there are valid reasons not to award the highest grade. The first being the starting pitcher who was taken soon after Skenes, ranked above him. Skenes could do little more than he did, but if you're the first starting pitcher drafted, you want to be ranked first at the position.
Skenes also saw his strikeout rate drop. In 2024, his 33.1% K% ranked in the 95th percentile. In 2025, Skenes had a 29.5% K% (89th percentile). Skenes' strikeout rate improved as the season wore on, helping to allay fears that he'd struggle towards the end of his first full season in the majors.
The final reason Skenes "only" got an A-grade was no fault of his, but 10 wins from a pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA in 32 starts is hardly ideal. Those drafting Skenes will have been all too aware of the possibility, given how poor the Pirates are. That is something likely to recur in 2026.
The Pirates scored the fewest runs in 2025 (583). It's highly unlikely they make significant changes this offseason to address that. If Skenes manages to top a dozen wins in 2026, fantasy managers should take that as a bonus. A lack of wins will continue to harm his fantasy value.
Outside of that, there's no reason not to draft Skenes as a top-3 starting pitcher. You shouldn't be concerned by his 3.03 xFIP and 3.10 SIERA. They both still ranked in the top five among the 52 qualified starting pitchers. Outside of wins, Skenes will be a fantasy ace in 2026.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 17
End of Season Ranking: 4
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 195 1/3 IP, 13-6 W-L, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 241 K
Grade: A+
Skubal narrowly jumped Skenes to be the number one-ranked starting pitcher in 2025, warranting the highest grade. Like Skenes, Skubal's AL Cy Young Award was well deserved, making him only the 12th pitcher to have won the award in back-to-back seasons.
The only fantasy stat in which Skubal didn't rank inside the top-2 among the 52 qualified starters was wins. Still, only 10 pitchers in that group had more wins than Skubal, and just three had more quality starts than the Tigers' leftie (21).
Skubal also excelled in the playoffs. In three postseason starts, he had a 1.74 ERA and struck out 36 batters in 20 2/3 innings. The Tigers' late-season wobble shouldn't detract from Skubal's 2026 outlook. Detroit will seek to improve its roster this offseason in a bid to secure the AL Central crown for the first time since 2014.
There's no reason to believe Skubal can't win a third Cy Young Award in 2026. His 2.21 ERA was second among qualified starters. That's supported by his 2.66 xFIP and 2.71 SIERA, ranking second best and best, respectively. Skubal's 32.2% K% ranked in the 94th percentile and also led qualified starters.
Expect Skubal to be the number one starting pitcher taken in 2026, and you can expect to have to use a first-round pick to draft him. There's no reason to be concerned if you do go that route, with Skubal the consensus number one starter in fantasy.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 25
End of Season Ranking: 24
2025 Stats: 24 GS, 149 2/3 IP, 10-5 W-L, 2.71 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 195 K
Grade: B+
It's a testament to Wheeler that his end-of-season ranking almost matched his ADP, despite missing the final six weeks of the season. It's also telling that Wheeler earned as many wins as Skenes, despite making eight fewer starts and having an ERA 0.74 higher. That's the difference between pitching for the Pirates and the Phillies.
Wheeler's season ended early due to a blood clot, which resulted in needing thoracic outlet surgery. Initially, the expectation was that Wheeler would miss a large chunk of 2026. However, the most recent news is much more optimistic than that.
Zack Wheeler Could be Ready for Opening Day in 2026https://t.co/zuHC9hHhHQ
— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) October 24, 2025
Wheeler's numbers could have been even better than they were. He started July with a complete game against the Reds, which lowered his ERA to 2.17. His next six starts saw Wheeler allow 17 earned runs across 33 2/3 innings (4.54 ERA). Concerns of an injury at that time proved valid.
Wheeler had been a workhorse in recent years, making 122 starts in the previous four seasons. It's difficult to label him as a health risk given the nature of his recent issue. That's not to say there aren't justified concerns about his availability and a lingering impact of the surgery heading into 2026.
In very early NFBC drafts, Wheeler's ADP has been all over the place. He's been taken as early as 34th overall and as late as 296th overall in the first 20 drafts on the site. Where he ends up settling during draft season will largely depend on further news.
If Wheeler is indeed able to make Opening Day, he's a top-5 starting pitcher. If he were to miss time, he'll slip out of the top-12. If Wheeler were to miss more than a few weeks, he could move into SP3 territory, or lower. Where Wheeler goes will be influenced by when you're drafting.
Right now, Wheeler could prove to be a draft-day bargain. You could take him in the middle rounds and get an SP1 if he makes Opening Day. The closer we get to Opening Day, provided there aren't any setbacks, we should fully anticipate Wheeler being drafted as an SP1, and justifiably so.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 33
End of Season Ranking: 121
2025 Stats: 25 GS, 131 IP, 6-6 W-L, 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 173 K
Grade: C+
Like Wheeler, Gilbert missed a significant chunk of the season. He started 2025 well, with a 2.37 ERA after his first six starts. A right elbow flexor strain sent Gilbert to the injured list (IL), and he struggled on his return. Gilbert's 12 starts after returning from the IL yielded a 4.55 ERA (61 1/3 innings).
Gilbert finished the season well. He posted a 2.52 ERA (39 1/3 innings) over his last seven starts, which helped Gilbert lower his ERA on the year to a decent mark, but still higher than 2024 (3.23 ERA). However, his 2.95 xFIP and 2.86 SIERA suggest Gilbert should have had a better season than he did.
One thing Gilbert did improve upon was his strikeout rate. He entered the season with a career 25.0% K%. In 2025, Gilbert had a 32.3% K%, ranking in the 94th percentile. With a 5.8% BB% (86th percentile), the increase in strikeouts didn't come at the expense of many more walks.
Gilbert's lack of wins ultimately hurt his fantasy value. The Mariners' offense wasn't to blame, given that they scored the ninth-most runs last season (766). Gilbert didn't go deep enough into games to pick up more wins. Only once did Gilbert complete seven innings in 2025, and that was in his first start of the season.
In only eight of his 25 starts did Gilbert even complete six innings. Some struggles following his return from the IL limited Gilbert, but after recording 22 in 2024, having fewer than a third of your outings being quality starts this year was a significant letdown.
There's enough reason to be high on Gilbert in 2026. The increased strikeout rate and underlying numbers suggest will be an SP1 over a full season in 2026. After not missing any time in the previous three seasons, Gilbert has also been one of the healthiest starting pitchers of recent times.
In the very early drafts, Gilbert is being taken as the fifth starter. That seems about right, as he definitely has the talent to finish the season as an SP1. There might not be much upside in drafting Gilbert as the fifth starter, but he should be one of the safer options in the early rounds.
Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 35
End of Season Ranking: 210
2025 Stats: 11 GS, 64 1/3 IP, 3-2 W-L, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 63 K
Grade: D
It turned out to be somewhat of a lost season for Burnes. His first in Arizona couldn't have been much more of a disappointment. After exiting his start on June 1st early, it transpired that Burnes required Tommy John Surgery (TJS).
Before his injury, Burnes looked like the ace he was drafted to be. That's not to say there weren't some red flags before he was sidelined. Burnes' 3.73 xFIP and 4.05 SIERA hinted that we'd see regression if he remained healthy all season.
His 23.8% K% was similar to his 23.1% K% in 2024, which ended a run of four straight years of decline. Burnes' strikeout rate only ranked in the 58th percentile this year, which isn't ideal for your SP1. It's fair to assume that if Burnes didn't end up needing TJS, his numbers wouldn't be those of a top-12 starting pitcher.
While it's still too early to be confident, Burnes is targeting a return around July. Even if he does only miss half of 2026, Burnes is still a risky option. Control is generally down when a pitcher returns from TJS. Burnes had a 9.8% BB% (20th percentile) in 2025—his highest walk-rate since 2020.
Add that to the red flags hanging over Burnes before his season ended early, and we have a volatile option in drafts. It would be worth taking a gamble on Burnes in the last few rounds. But expecting anything resembling his career numbers in half a season next year will probably lead to disappointment.
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
ADP: 37
End of Season Ranking: 11
2025 Stats: 32 GS, 205.1 IP, 18-5 W-L, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 255 K
Grade: A+
Crochet was many people's outside pick for the AL Cy Young. He couldn't have done more to win it. Among the 52 qualified starters, Crochet ranked second in wins, sixth in ERA, and led the majors in strikeouts. As we can see from his Statcast Profile, there wasn't a weakness in his performances.
There was no luck involved in Crochet's numbers either. His 2.64 xFIP was the best among qualified starters, while Crochet's 2.86 SIERA was second best to only Skubal (2.71 SIERA). Volume wasn't the sole determinant in Crochet leading the league in strikeouts, either.
Only Skubal (32.2% K%) had a better strikeout rate than Crochet (31.3% K%) among qualified starters. Crochet's high volume was still a significant boost to his fantasy value. Only Logan Webb (207 innings) threw more regular-season innings than Crochet in 2025.
Crochet looks like he'll settle in as the third starting pitcher taken in drafts for 2026. He's currently going just after Skenes (in the first 20 NFBC drafts). That's not to say Crochet doesn't have the potential to be the number one starter next year.
His numbers have left him just a smidge behind Skubal and Skenes. But his underlying numbers, his team's offense, and elite strikeout numbers all hint that Crochet could be the best SP1 option in 2026, even if he is drafted around the Round 1/Round 2 turn.
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