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Jamie Steed analyzes the top fantasy baseball pitchers from 2025 drafts to see how they performed during the season. His top risers and fallers include Jacob deGrom, Cole Ragans, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Chris Sale, more
The 2025 baseball season is in the books. Now seems like the perfect time to look back and reflect on the season: What went right and what went wrong. One of the biggest determinants will likely have been how the starting pitchers you drafted early performed throughout the year.
Our focus here is on the first 12 starting pitchers drafted in 2025, according to their Yahoo! average draft position (ADP). We'll examine the pitchers' performance and grade them based on their Yahoo! end-of-season ranking compared to their ADP. We'll also offer a 2026 outlook for each.
We're beginning with the starting pitchers drafted from seventh to 12th at the position. The top six SPs will be coming soon in Part Two. Don't forget to follow RotoBaller on X to get notified when that article drops. The team will also be bringing you all the preseason baseball stuff you need.
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Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
ADP: 55
End of Season Ranking: 28
2025 Stats: 30 GS, 172 2/3, IP, 12-8 W-L, 2.97 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 185 K
Grade: A
No pitcher was a bigger crapshoot in 2025 drafts than deGrom. The two-time NL Cy Young winner totaled 265 1/3 innings over the previous five seasons, and just 42 innings in the previous two seasons. You needed to go back to 2019 for the last time deGrom reached 100 innings in a season.
Getting 30 starts from deGrom this year was a big bonus. The fact that he was able to put up SP1 numbers was the icing on the cake. It may seem a bit harsh not to award deGrom the highest grade. But there are some reasons for it. The first being his underlying numbers.
Despite his 2.97 ERA, deGrom was a little fortunate. His 3.37 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA both ranked in the top 12 among 52 qualified pitchers, but that meant deGrom's sub-3.00 ERA was lucky. Then there's deGrom's strikeout rate, which was great. But it could have been even better.
His 27.7% K% ranked in the 83rd percentile, but it was his lowest strikeout rate since 2016. I don't think anyone should have expected better than what we saw from deGrom in 2025. We need to compare his 2019 Statcast Profile to this year's to remind ourselves of how good deGrom was.
Where does that leave us for 2026? Well, simply put, there's little difference to 2025. We can be more confident in drafting deGrom following a full season of health. But we can't ignore the previous five seasons nor the fact that he is now 37 years old.
The early signs suggest that deGrom will be drafted as an SP2 next year. That's a little surprising, as he couldn't have done much more than he did in 2025. He will still be a big risk/reward pick. If you drafted him in 2025, you will likely be interested in taking deGrom again in 2026.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 53
End of Season Ranking: 6
2025 Stats: 30 GS, 173 2/3 IP, 12-8 W-L, 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 201 K
Grade: A+
If we were including the postseason in the marks, you could add another plus to Yamamoto's grade. The World Series MVP was worthy of the accolades that befell him following his performances in the Fall Classic, and is well worth his $325M contract. Yamamoto is the first pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2001 to win three games in a World Series.
Yamamoto's regular season was almost as impressive as his World Series. Only three of the 52 qualified starters had a lower ERA, and Yamamoto was one of 12 pitchers to reach the 200 strikeout mark. His 29.4% K% was fifth best among qualified starters and ranked in the 89th percentile.
After tallying just 90 innings (18 starts) in his debut season, 2025 was a huge step forward for Yamamoto. The only slight against him was his 8.6% BB%, which ranked in the 38th percentile. Despite that, Yamamoto still put up a sub-1.00 WHIP, so it didn't hurt his fantasy value.
Yamamoto is set to be taken as a top-5 starting pitcher in 2026 drafts. After the numbers he put up this year, that is entirely justified. His 12 wins could improve, given how good the Dodgers' offense is. While Yamamoto's 3.05 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA suggest some regression, they are still excellent numbers.
Some might be concerned by Yamamoto's postseason workload. But he only totaled 211 innings in 2025. A careful offseason and spring will be in order, and there's no reason to be worried about taking Yamamoto as your SP1 in the third or fourth round.
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
ADP: 46
End of Season Ranking: 324
2025 Stats: 32 GS, 168 IP, 8-12 W-L, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 215 K
Grade: C-
We've reached the first dud of the list. After putting up such disappointing numbers, Cease's grade might look generous. The one thing that prevented Cease from being awarded a lower mark was the strikeouts. Only five pitchers struck out more batters than Cease in 2025.
Cease's ERA was also inflated. He had a 3.56 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA, which made him one of the unluckiest pitchers in 2025. Cease had a 3.56 xFIP and a 3.58 SIERA in 2024, when he posted a 3.47 ERA. This season felt like it could be more of an outlier.
Even with a lofty ERA, Cease has been consistent. This was his fifth straight season of starting 32 games, and after a rough start to the year, his ERA and xFIP remained steady. It's just a shame his ERA didn't improve as the season went on.
Cease enters the offseason as a free agent. Despite his struggles, Cease will be one of the most sought-after pitchers this winter. The saying "availability is the best ability" will be a factor in negotiations. So will be his age, with Cease only turning 30 years old in December.
Where Cease ends up signing will help determine his fantasy value. Assuming he can lower his ERA, Cease is still capable of putting up SP2 numbers. That looks likely to be where he's drafted in 2026, with his strikeout total and health continuing to offer a nice floor.
Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 42
End of Season Ranking: 177
2025 Stats: 11 GS, 61 1/3 IP, 5-4 W-L, 2.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 72 K
Grade: C
I'll admit, giving Snell a C grade is sitting on the fence. He was excellent when on the mound. The problem was that he wasn't on the mound nearly enough, especially after being drafted as an SP1. After making his second start for the Dodgers in early April, Snell then missed four months.
Snell did manage to repay his fantasy manager's patience when he returned in August. He also helped the Dodgers clinch back-to-back World Series titles in his first season in Los Angeles. Snell looked very much like his usual self when healthy.
His 28.3% K% was a bit down from previous years, but understandable given the time he missed. Snell still walked too many batters, with his 10.2% BB% ranking in the 18th percentile. He more than makes up for that with the strikeouts and minimizing hard contact (92nd percentile hard-hit rate).
The strikeouts, team, and elite ERA are reasons why Snell will still be drafted as an SP1 in 2026. The concern is that it's unlikely you'll get a full season of Snell. Since debuting in 2016, Snell has only reached 180 innings twice. Over the last seven seasons, Snell has averaged 108 innings and 21 starts a year.
There are no guarantees when it comes to pitchers staying healthy. Snell has shown few signs of doing that over a full season. That will make him one of the riskiest early-round starting pitchers in 2026. We know the upside, but the downside is what we saw this year.
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 44
End of Season Ranking: 525
2025 Stats: 13 GS, 61 2/3 IP, 3-3 W-L, 4.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 98 K
Grade: D
Like Snell, it was something of a lost season for Ragans. After his first 10 starts of 2025, he had a 5.18 ERA (48 2/3 innings). He seemed like a fantasy bust after putting up a 3.14 ERA in 2024 (186 1/3 innings). However, Ragans had a 2.58 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA, and a 36.4% K% at that stage of the year.
Unfortunately, Ragans didn't get a chance to lower his ERA as a left rotator cuff strain sidelined him for more than three months. Ragans returned to make three more starts before the end of the season. He looked like his old self, putting up a 2.77 ERA and striking out 22 batters in 13 innings.
In his first start off the injured list (IL), Ragans reminded everyone of his talents.
Cole Ragans is making his first start in over 3 months.
He struck out Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, and Julio Rodríguez on just 11 pitches in the 1st inning! pic.twitter.com/62OzK4OYfE
— MLB (@MLB) September 17, 2025
Ragans' elevated ERA and missed time might deter many from drafting him in 2026. That could also make him a significant bargain come draft day. It's unlikely Ragans will be able to pick up many wins with the Royals, but he did win 11 games in 2024 and three this year.
Provided he remains healthy, Ragans should have no problem putting up SP1 numbers. He'll likely be drafted as an SP2 or SP3. Ragans is an ideal draft target, especially as an SP2 if you draft one of the elite options early. He will likely move up draft boards the closer we get to Opening Day.
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
ADP: 39
End of Season Ranking: 68
2025 Stats: 20 GS, 125.2 IP, 7-5 W-L, 2.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 165 K
Grade: B
Sale looked like a candidate for the NL Cy Young Award early in the year. Then, a freak injury in June left Sale with a fractured rib cage and resulted in him missing 10 weeks. It was indicative of what was a disastrous season for the Braves.
When Sale was placed on the IL, he had a 2.52 ERA in 15 starts. That was after having a 6.17 ERA in his first five starts of the year. Sale didn't miss a beat when he returned from injury, posting a 2.72 ERA in his six starts. He also struck out 51 batters in 36 1/3 innings.
Despite missing so much time, Sale earned his B grade. He still ranked high among starting pitchers, and I'm willing to give him a pass for the injury, given it occurred while trying to field a ball. It's unlikely we'll see anything similar happen to another pitcher in 2026.
After missing so much time towards the end of his time in Boston, Sale made 29 starts in 2024 with Atlanta. That made last season's injury all the more frustrating. It could also suppress Sale's ADP in 2026, with the 'oft-injured' tag being used against him.
While there is an element of truth about that, he remained largely healthy in 2024, and you can't account for the type of injury he suffered in 2025. Sale will be 37 years old on Opening Day, so it isn't unreasonable to believe he'll struggle to make 30 starts in 2026.
The one thing we can be confident in is the quality of his work. Sale had a 2.80 xFIP and 2.58 SIERA this year. His 32.4% K% ranked in the 95th percentile, and the Braves will surely be better in 2026. There are plenty of reasons to still draft Sale next year, especially if he falls into the SP2 range.
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