RADIO
Craig Rondinone takes a look at five wide receivers who are being overvalued in 2024. He analyzes why these WRs should not be drafted as high as many think they should this season.
Forget about which receiver sleepers you can get in the middle-to-late rounds this week when you have your fantasy football drafts. Focus as much of your attention on staying away from drafting overvalued receivers a couple of rounds too early.
The NFL is a pass-first league, so wide receivers are almost on par with running backs when it comes to what the most valuable position is in fantasy football. The only reason running back still wins out is because fewer backs get tons of touches compared to receivers since nowadays every team has three decent wideouts catching passes. A winning fantasy team needs three-to-four solid-to-outstanding receivers to win, though.
Which wide receivers are being overvalued heading into fantasy drafts and auctions this week? Which receivers should you avoid in your drafts at their current ADP?
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Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
WR17, ADP: 37
Aiyuk is coming off his spectacular 2023 campaign where he racked up a career-high 1,342 receiving yards while scoring seven touchdowns and averaging an outstanding 17.9 yards per catch. Now San Fran’s best pure receiver has FINALLY signed a four-year deal to keep him in the Bay Area for a long time.
The problem is that Aiyuk has not had any reps or game time during the preseason, so he is behind the eight-ball. Will his timing with QB Brock Purdy be the same at the start of the season? Will he be more apt to pull a hamstring or sprain a knee because he might not be in 100 percent football shape?
And what if Deebo Samuel and George Kittle stay healthy all season long? Aiyuk might not get targeted as much as he has in the past two seasons. And what if Purdy realizes he is not the second coming of Joe Montana? I like Aiyuk, but I do not love him, and that is why I think I would prefer to take him a couple of rounds too late than a couple too early.
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
WR20, ADP: 42
Diggs has been the cornerstone of fantasy squads for several seasons now. The veteran has averaged 160 targets per season over the past four years. This is why Diggs averaged 111 receptions and 1,343 yards per campaign over that scintillating span.
Diggs’ numbers should make him a top-10 fantasy receiver heading into the upcoming season. The thought of now playing on one of the AFC’s highest-scoring offenses that is loaded with young talent and has franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud throwing the spirals sounds amazing.
Fantasy players know that Diggs struggled down the stretch, however. They saw Father Time start horse-collaring him invisibly on deep routes. Diggs was not getting the separation from cornerbacks like he used to. Will that change just because he changed uniforms?
Stefon Diggs….. man. pic.twitter.com/7x0ib4GOYs
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) January 22, 2024
Diggs did not record a single 100-yard game over his last 11 regular-season contests and his two playoff outings to end 2023. Now he has to fight for targets with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz in Houston, a trio that almost had 300 targets combined last season. There is no way the math works out where Diggs will see 150 passes thrown his way in 2024, so he will not be able to match his usual numbers in the major fantasy categories.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
WR21, ADP: 44
Miami has arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL. The Dolphins have three terrific running backs who can ground and pound defenses into submission, but offensive wunderkind Mike McDaniel loves to have QB Tue Tagovailoa air it out no matter what the situation. Being the WR2 on the team like this means Waddle can be a fantasy force despite being the second banana on his receiving corps.
Miami’s passing attack revolves around Tyreek Hill. Waddle would be the WR1 on many NFL teams, but he is a distant WR2 with the Dolphins. Hill averaged 10.7 targets per game last year, compared to Waddle’s 7.4. Even though Waddle made the most of his targets and broke the 1,000-yard barrier in just 14 games in 2024, he would be better off being the WR1 on another team.
Waddle is a premier pass catcher and has three straight 1,000-yard years to start his career but to me, he is a WR25 or lower. He is also dealing with an undisclosed injury as we head into the new season that has limited his practice time, and he had a concussion last year that forced him to miss games. I have no problem making Waddle my WR3 or WR4 for fantasy, but not my WR2.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
WR33, ADP: 76
Tennessee gifted Ridley a $92 million contract to become their WR1 or WR1-A alongside DeAndre Hopkins. That twosome will be gruesome for opposing secondaries to cover. With Tennessee separating itself from ball hog Derrick Henry and a run-first offense that dented the fantasy values of their receivers, Ridley should be in for a high volume of targets and scoring chances.
On paper, this looks like a superb situation for Ridley. He will not get double-covered much with Hopkins distracting defenders on the opposite side of the field. New head coach Brian Callahan knows how to turn receivers into Pro Bowl monsters judging by what he did with Cincinnati the past few years. Ridley looks ready to rock and roll towards a 1,300-yard mega-season, right?
Ridley had his shot to be the WR1 of the Jacksonville Jaguars last year and did not have the 1,300-yard year I thought he would. There were a lot of near-miss touchdowns where Ridley and Trevor Lawrence could not connect. Will Ridley suddenly have better red-zone chemistry with Will Levis?
Will he get as many opportunities for TDs with Hopkins needing his fair share, too? Too many questions I do not have certain answers for, so he is a WR4 at best for me.
Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs
WR45, ADP: 103
“Hollywood” Brown was a premier home run threat for the Baltimore Ravens when he kicked off his career. Then he spent two years with the Arizona Cardinals and was a fantasy zero. He might have actually been worse than a zero – a fantasy negative. Instead of being a home run hitter, he was an injury-prone singles hitter for the Cards.
Fantasy managers assume Brown will have a career resurgence with Patrick Mahomes throwing pinpoint passes downfield to him all the time. That sounds great on paper, but not every receiver who comes to Kansas City becomes a bonafide fantasy superstar.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling played the role of field stretcher in KC’s offense for multiple millions. All he supplied with 1,002 yards and three touchdowns in two seasons. No fantasy value whatsoever.
Fantasy footballers want the Brown who could save a fantasy week with a 50-yard TD in the blink of an eye. We did not get that for two years in Arizona, and the dream of Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and head coach Andy Reid bringing that version of Brown back is not definite in my mind, especially now that Brown is missing games thanks to a busted shoulder and rookie Xavier Worthy might have essentially the same role.
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