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Another week brought another load of big injuries and primetime games hitting their under. Depth is increasing in importance, with handcuffs deserving of bench spots as we schedule defensive streams out. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
The Thanksgiving week is here to provide a much-needed break from the bye weeks. Unfortunately, Week 13 looms with a heavy hand as six teams will be off (Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Las Vegas, Minnesota, and the New York Giants). Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 12.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (QB, NO) - 42% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Quickly, if Baker Mayfield (~50% rostered) is available then snag him. Carr has yet to clear concussion protocol but did have the Week 11 bye to potentially clear some initial steps. More importantly, his shoulder appears cleared for play ahead of a top-10 QB matchup against the Falcons.
2023 Falcons defense yards/play allowed....
Before Grady Jarrett injury: 4.72 (4th best in NFL)
After Grady Jarrett injury: 5.35 (22nd best in NFL)— Mike Conti (@MikeConti929) November 13, 2023
He’ll be without Michael Thomas but had scored around 16 to 18 points in Weeks 5 to 9 with an 8:2 TD/INT ratio before the injury-slammed Week 10 performance. I know some are hoping for Jameis Winston (1% rostered) should Carr not clear protocol, so keep that tucked away as well.
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND) - 13% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Minshew comes out of Indianapolis’ Week 11 bye looking for a fresh start after a rough Week 10 game at Foxborough. He has a great chance at doing so against a funnel Tampa Bay defense that has allowed C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy to combine for eight passing TDs in recent games.
Unless you think Minshew is comparable to Will Levis then this is a good play. We’ll hope that Josh Downs is largely healed up from his knee injury for the affair. Jonathan Taylor may struggle to run through the front seven but he's a fantastic receiver and Minshew should have a hand in any big offensive plays they have.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA) - 44% rostered
FAAB Bid: 40-60%
Aggressive Bid: 60-75%
Desperation Bid: 75-100%
Kenneth Walker III suffered an oblique strain that Pete Carroll described as “legit” in his post-game presser. That is a scary and inexact term but Charbonnet was the clear lead back after KW3’s exit.
Charb had already absorbed most of the passing work and totaled another six catches in Seattle’s loss to the Rams, putting up 69 total yards between them and 15 carries. The Seahawks couldn’t hold on in a tight one and the rookie’s passing chops will be leaned on once again versus San Francisco in Week 12.
His yards-per-carry tally may struggle with SF, DAL, SF again, and PHI in the next four games, but that’s what PPR volume is for! We know he has big-play abilities in space so any avenue to ~20 weekly touches makes him a dynamite add regardless of opponent. Deep-leaguers take note that Kenny McIntosh should get involved here.
Zach Charbonnet is in line for a MASSIVE workload against the 49ers on Thanksgiving.
Pete Carroll has been gushing about Charbonnet's versatility for a while now, and we should see it on full display with Kenneth Walker (oblique) expected to miss.
s/o @CoachspeakIndex for vid pic.twitter.com/eNA24pRgor
— Mark Dankenbring (@MarkDank) November 20, 2023
Ty Chandler (RB, MIN) - 44% rostered
FAAB Bid: 12-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
Chandler was Minnesota’s 1B option with Alexander Mattison surprisingly able to clear concussion protocol within a week for the game. Denver boasts a generous run defense and gave up an 18-81-0 line to Mattison (who lost a fumble) while Chandler had 10-73-0 rushing and 4-37-0 receiving.
Some context is needed, as Chandler benefitted from a 31-yard rush on a fake punt. Still, he was the more effective runner and showed burst while Mattison largely battled through trenches between the tackles.
Mattison won’t disappear and had some nice runs himself, but only caught one of two targets for negative one yard. Chandler’s healthy receiving game supplies PPR appeal ahead of a plus matchup against Chicago in Week 12. Then they have a bye ahead of Week 14’s tilt at Las Vegas versus another soft defense.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, MIA) - 11% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
This section was originally for Salvon Ahmed, who stepped up after De'Von Achane made an early exit due to a knee injury, but Ahmed's own foot injury has landed him on the IR. Miami plays on Black Friday this year, so the short week should call for plenty of JWJ to spell Raheem Mostert, who was limited with knee and ankle designations on Tuesday. Maybe Achane recovers quickly, but Miami does have its eyes on the playoffs.
Now, Wilson was a healthy scratch on Sunday but would be active and could be seen as the direct fill-in for Achane, rather than Ahmed moving up a rung on the ladder. Regardless, Miami should find loads of strong field position against a great Jets defense that will be let down by its offense. The Dolphins could run things up via the ground game and its defense instead of unnecessarily testing the NYJ secondary.
Leonard Fournette (RB, BUF) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%
Fournette wasn’t elevated in Week 11 but his time should be coming. New offensive coordinator Joe Brady moved Ty Johnson into a bigger role, and TyJo responded with a 28-yard TD amidst 58 total yards. James Cook still had 102 yards and a score while Latavius Murray had 10 touches (35 yards).
There was plenty to go around in a 32-6 romp over the Jets. It will be far more difficult in Philadelphia next week. Lenny could soak up most of the work that Murray and Johnson have seen behind Cook, but I understand stashing him with nothing to show for it through the Week 13 bye will feel gross. Buffalo’s offense has upside worth stashing, however.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Jayden Reed (WR, GB) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Reed emerged as Green Bay’s leading rusher on a day they lost Aaron Jones to a knee injury. Alongside catching four of six targets for 46 yards, he turned in another 46 yards on three carries. The big pop was a 32-yard TD on a reverse, which gives him a touchdown in three of his last five games.
If Jones misses their next couple of games against Detroit and KC then the Pack will be scrambling for a consistent spark, so perhaps the versatile Reed can be that X-factor. Illustrating another path to touches is a beautiful sight so don’t let Reed languish on waivers.
No Packers wide receiver hit an 80% snap share today. After seeing snap shares of just 39% and 52% over his last two games, though, Jayden Reed's snap rate rose to a nice 69% today.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 20, 2023
Demario Douglas (WR, NE) - 32% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-13%
Desperation Bid: 13-16%
Douglas and the Patriots had a bye week to recover from their loss in Germany, which ideally gave them time to scheme the playmaker into space in upcoming matchups against NYG and LAC. Both of those defenses are bottom-five units against WRs and all we need out of the quarterback is to flick it to Douglas in the short/intermediate field.
Whether that’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, I don’t particularly care. Neither of them is going to make Boston sports-talk radio any more bearable as I drive around. Douglas has over 70 yards or at least five catches in each of his last four games and that trend should only ramp up through the 2023 season with no one else demanding the ball in New England.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, BAL) - 29% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-15%
OBJ turned four catches into 116 yards and a shoulder injury on Thursday night, breathing life into the offense after Mark Andrews left with his ankle injury before leaving with his own issue in the fourth quarter. Luckily, John Harbaugh said it “doesn’t look too bad” so we’ll cross our fingers ahead of a dream date with the Chargers secondary on Sunday night.
Fallback options would be Rashod Bateman (17% rostered) and Nelson Agholor (1%), who both had only one catch that resulted in a TD on TNF. For now, let’s hope it’s OBJ lining up across from Zay Flowers in the primary WR set as Lamar Jackson and company look to bury the Chargers’ 2023 aspirations.
Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF) - 11% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Shakir’s 81-yard touchdown broke the game open for Buffalo and fueled his first 100-yard NFL game. He got behind Sauce Gardner by just enough to streak down the field and then cut back inside toward the end zone, with a nice Dalton Kincaid block helping him leave the Jets behind.
Shakir now has multiple catches and four or more targets in four of his last five games, which doesn’t sound like a lot but it boasts a high ceiling thanks to Josh Allen’s artillery arm. Very little is reliable in Buffalo these days, but the Jets thrashing may get them rolling under the new offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, for their playoff push.
Gabe Davis continues to disappear on the perimeter against decent secondaries, with Stefon Diggs demanding extra attention as Shakir and Kincaid roast defenses elsewhere. It’s a low-floor scenario but Buffalo is a premium offense with a prime passing scenario against Philadelphia in Week 12.
Tutu Atwell (WR, LAR) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Atwell is a logical boost candidate based on early-season results should Cooper Kupp’s ankle sprain keep him out through Week 12 at Arizona. While that may follow on a week where Sean McVay can plan around Kupp’s absence, we must note that Austin Trammell and Demarcus Robinson were the ones to play more on Sunday after Kupp went down.
Atwell would only catch one ball for 17 yards on three targets, while both Trammell (3-23-0 on six targets) and Robinson (2-24-0 on two targets) saw more action. This becomes a fragile situation beyond the obvious Puka Nacua play.
Kyren Williams is projected to return and muddy the RB waters as well. Nab Atwell if you can, but those in deep leagues should sneak in a Trammell bid. Please note that the Rams face Cleveland and Baltimore in Weeks 13 and 14, so don’t get attached to these dart throws.
Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) - 12% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Wilson came a few inches away from a touchdown in Week 10 and then missed Week 11 with a shoulder injury made worse during practice. We’ll hope for early signs at a Week 12 return so he can be the deep threat for Kyler Murray’s downfield shots.
If you’re hard out on rostering players at less than 100% then you’re looking at Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch instead. Both of them split routes across from Marquise Brown in Wilson’s absence, with Moore hauling in a 48-yard tuddy (his only catch) as Dortch paced Arizona with six catches and 76 yards. Dortch has the momentum if you need a 0% rostered dart.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 25-35%
Aggressive Bid: 35-50%
Desperation Bid: 50-65%
One cannot simply replace Mark Andrews, but Likely did go 5-24-1 and 8-103-0 in two games without Andrews back in ‘22. He went without a catch on Thursday following Andrews’ injury but we’ll see how Baltimore schemes things with time to prepare for his skill set’s involvement.
The Ravens now take on a Chargers defense that has been extremely generous to TEs of late. Beyond Travis Kelce’s hilarious 12-179-1 line, they’ve also been relatively slapped around by Cole Kmet (10-79-0), Tyler Conklin (6-66-0), and Detroit’s TE duo combining for 6-63-1 in Week 10. Likely could take advantage of the matchup in a big way, but Baltimore may also turtle up with their ground game and defense unless pushed to do more.
Isaiah Likely said he will dedicate the rest of the season to Andrews. The second-year TE now becomes a big piece for the Ravens going forward.
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) November 17, 2023
Michael Mayer (TE, LV) - 11% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Mayer helped himself to five targets in Week 11 as the Raiders scrapped with Miami in a 20-13 loss. His four catches and 46 yards are his best since the 5-75-0 line from Week 6. PFF charted him with 30 routes run, which trailed only Davante Adams (43) and Jakobi Meyers (37) while tripling Austin Hooper’s mark.
That’s encouraging as LV should want to see what Mayer can do down the stretch in a lost season, even if he’s the third option in a subpar passing attack at best. A Week 12 home game against Kansas City should once again call for airing it out, making Mayer a desperation volume play before their Week 13 bye.
Tanner Hudson (TE, CIN) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
Cincinnati headlines rightfully focused on Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury, but Hudson’s third consecutive game as Cincy’s pass-catching TE shouldn’t be pushed off of the page. Irv Smith Jr. went catchless on one target while Drew Sample’s modest two-catch game doesn’t compare to Hudson, who has four-plus targets and eight-plus PPR points in three straight games.
Jake Browning lowers all of Cincy’s range of outcomes, but Hudson looks like a sturdy TE2 whose snap count has progressed from 23% in Week 9, to 31% in Week 10, to 34% last Thursday. If that can keep trending towards 50% and beyond then perhaps six to eight weekly PPR points look to become his norm.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Denver Broncos Defense (vs. CLE) - 33% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
The Broncos' defense just turned in their third straight game with three or more turnovers ahead of a date with the Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Cleveland offense. DTR pulled off a 13-10 win over Pittsburgh but still holds a poor 0:4 TD/INT ratio in two games. Let’s hope a rejuvenated Russell Wilson can break through Cleveland’s tough defense to put pressure on DTR and company to take risks.
New England Patriots Defense (at NYG) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
The Pats will head to Metlife Stadium as 3.5-point favorites and take on Tommy Devito and the G-men. I realize Big Blue just pulled it together for a win over Washington but they still ceded nine sacks to a watered-down D-line. They’ve surrendered five or more sacks in three straight and the Pats may not be great, but they’re better than Washington. You can also use a 3% rostered NYG defense against Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe!
Tennessee Titans Defense (vs. CAR) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
Tennessee could be a “meh defense against bad offense” letdown but Carolina is really bad. The Panthers haven’t topped 15 offensive points in any of their last five games, with sack totals of four, six, four, three, and seven in those respective contests. The Titans got punched by Jacksonville in a 34-14 defeat but held more mediocre offenses in ATL, PIT, and TB to roughly 20 points each with nine combined sacks. Desperate players could do worse.
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