RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 4, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
This week we've got two interesting arms to break down. First, we'll look at Vince Velasquez's hot start in Pittsburgh. Then we'll have a look at Jose Suarez and his new pitch in Anaheim.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 05/01/2023.
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Vince Velasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates – 41% Rostered
2022 Stats: 75.1 IP, 4.78 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 13.8% K-BB%
04/29 @ WSH: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Velasquez came out firing on Saturday, shutting down the Nationals for six scoreless innings while picking up his fourth victory of the season. 2023 is shaping up to be a bounce-back season for Velasquez so far, who has a 3.06 ERA through his first four starts. That’s a stark improvement over the 5.61 ERA he posted between 2020-22. Can Velasquez keep it up, or is this just another fake out from Vinny V?
A longtime starter for the Phillies, Velasquez has been on the fringes of fantasy relevance for the majority of his seven-year career. Velasquez would occasionally dazzle in his younger days, but he was rarely able to extend his good pitching beyond a few starts. In past seasons Velasquez worked with five different pitches: the four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. He has simplified his pitching arsenal this season, throwing either his four-seamer, slider, or changeup 98% of the time. Perhaps a change in approach could be driving Velasquez’s early season success.
The biggest difference in pitching style for Velasquez would be his newfound emphasis on the slider. Velasquez has a 15.7% slider usage rate all time, but a 43.1% slider usage rate this season. He threw the pitch 50% of the time in this start against the Nationals, which was the highest slider usage rate in any start of Velasquez’s career. Opponents have struggled against the slider as well this season, hitting just .132 with a .401 OPS off the pitch so far.
From a measurables perspective, the pitch has never stood out and that remains true despite the increased use. Here’s an example of the pitch (and a hilariously bad strike call) from Saturday.
This GIF acts as a microcosm of Velasquez’s season to this point; sure, there was a favorable outcome, but the outcome was incongruent with the execution, leading us to believe future outcomes will not be as favorable. That’s not to say Velasquez is a terrible pitcher that doesn’t belong on an MLB roster, but his fantasy relevance will likely be limited to strong situations and dependent on team and league context.
Consider the slider. The pitch is roughly league-average in terms of movement and velocity, and over the course of his career, Velasquez has gotten league-average results with the pitch. Opponents are hitting .245 against the pitch with a .722 OPS and a 13.9% swinging strike rate all time. Those are not impressive numbers for a slider, and it’s likely that Velasquez’s slider results regress toward his career marks going forward. Velasquez has enjoyed a .209 BABP against his slider this season, compared to a .296 career BABIP with the pitch. His 14.7% swinging strike rate is right around his career mark with the pitch as well, suggesting that Velasquez will be unable to sustain the strikeout numbers we’ve seen recently (10.1 K/9 over his last four starts).
It's only a matter of time before the BABIP against Velasquez’s slider normalizes, and there won’t be much to like about Velasquez’s fantasy prospects when that happens. Along with the .209 BABIP against his slider, Velasquez has coasted thanks to a 7.3% HR/FB ratio, 80.5% LOB rate, and a .258 BABIP overall this season. Despite his shiny 3.06 ERA, ERA predictors like his 4.62 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA paint a better picture of Velasquez’s true skill level. An increased emphasis on the slider may help Velasquez become a better major-league pitcher, but he still isn’t that interesting for fantasy purposes.
Verdict:
Velasquez has eschewed his five-pitch repertoire for a more simplified, fastball-slider-change approach. This is a shift we’ve seen many pitchers make with great success over the past few seasons. The issue in Velasquez’s case is a lack of “stuff”. His best pitch—the slider—isn’t all that good when compared to other sliders across the league. Velasquez’s underlying numbers suggest that his recent production is a mirage, and fantasy players should not expend any resources to acquire him.
Jose Suarez, Los Angeles Angels – 2% Rostered
2022 Stats: 109 IP, 3.96 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 15.2% K-BB%
04/30 @ MIL: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Suarez picked up his first win of 2023 on Sunday, shutting down the Brewers for five scoreless innings while striking out six. And boy, did Suarez need this one. Coming into the game, he had a 10.26 ERA through four starts and might’ve been in danger of losing his rotation spot. Suarez bought himself some leash with this one and is now on the radar of many deep-league fantasy players. Is Suarez a diamond in the rough, or was this just a lucky outing?
While his season has gotten off to a poor start, Suarez has had some success in the very recent past. In fact, he has a 3.86 ERA in 207.1 innings between 2021-22. Suarez works with a five-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, a changeup, and a curveball. It’s quite the arsenal, but all those pitches weren’t enough for Suarez, who went ahead and debuted a whole new one on Sunday.
Suarez threw 13 pitches classified as a cutter on Sunday, ditching his slider in favor of his new toy. Suarez’s cutter is harder and moves less than his slider, coming in around 87.3 MPH in this start. Here’s an example of one from Sunday.
That was probably the best pitch Suarez threw on Sunday. Cutters don’t typically generate the strikeout numbers we see from sliders, but that wasn’t the case for Suarez against Milwaukee, as he earned a 50% whiff rate with the pitch in this start, compared to a 20% whiff rate with his slider this season. While one wouldn’t expect such a gulf in whiff rate between the pitches to last all season, Suarez has long lacked a true strikeout weapon on the mound.
Can the cutter act as that strikeout weapon? It remains to be seen, though we should be skeptical of his strikeout numbers in this start. The pitch displayed average movement in this outing, and Suarez benefitted from six called strikes on 13 pitches. That’s not to say Suarez didn’t earn those strikes, or that they were bad calls, but rather that we shouldn’t anticipate continued exceptional results based on one start. It was the first time an MLB opponent had seen the pitch, so hitters were likely kept off balance and easily fooled. We’ll need to see Suarez use the cutter to similar effectiveness over several starts before we can trust him.
While the cutter is an interesting addition, Suarez’s game is still lacking. His four-seam fastball is a weak offering, below average in both velocity and movement. Opponents are hitting .321 with a .987 OPS and .263 ISO against the pitch all time, which are the numbers of an MVP-caliber season from a position player. Funnily enough, batters are hitting just .214 off Suarez’s fastball this season thanks to a .182 BABIP. Even with how poorly his season has gone so far, Suarez’s fastball has overperformed.
Verdict:
Suarez debuted a new cutter and found some much-needed success on Sunday, but he’s still a long way away from standard mixed-league relevance. We’ll need to see Suarez command the pitch effectively over multiple starts before we can begin trusting him. There’s a reason Suarez has a 5.24 ERA for his career. His stuff is subpar, his control is lacking, and he’s had issues with the long ball at times; a new cutter doesn’t erase all of that. Suarez is someone worth keeping an eye on, but don’t spend any FAB on him.
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