RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 21 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 01/21/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Last week was some week. We had a huge weekend on the 'players to watch' front, bagging four goals, five assists and four clean sheets in the first seven games. We also secured a tidy profit with a parlay hitting and nearly bagged a second with Wolves having a late goal disallowed to deny us. A missed penalty and a dubious goal also prevented us from having a bigger weekend but we remain in profit on the season.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 88-101
- Total picks: 82-100-9
- Parlays: 10-24
- ROI: 102.20% (+3.71 units)
Saturday, January 21st, 2023
Chelsea (+311) at Liverpool (-108) 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 0 Chelsea
The weekend kicks off with a battle of two teams devoid of form and in desperate need of a win if they are to keep their slim hopes of a top-four finish alive. Chelsea is struggling to find goals and the suspension of loanee Joao Felix for this game won't help so I'm giving Liverpool the edge in this one due to their better-attacking options and being in front of their fans.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Liverpool to win and Chelsea under 1.5 goals (+105) 0.5 units
If Liverpool wins, they won't have conceded two goals in doing so and I expect the home team to win so adding in Chelsea to score no more than once to give us plus odds makes sense. Chelsea has just five goals in their last five EPL games and has not scored more than once in their last four.
Player to watch: Harvey Elliott
Liverpool has had a weakness in the middle of the pitch all season but youngster Elliott has shown signs of promise when he starts, including netting the only goal against Wolves in their midweek FA Cup replay. His 46 shot-creating actions are the fourth most on the team despite him only starting 12 EPL games this season.
Nottingham Forest (+184) at Bournemouth (+179) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest
Two teams trending in opposite directions meet with Bournemouth not only looking for their first points since the World Cup but also their first goal (four games). Forest made it back-to-back wins last weekend and is now unbeaten in their last three games. Forest has only scored two goals on their travels this season and conceded 22 (nine games) so I'm skeptical they can win their third straight and think the game will end in a draw.
Betting pick: Total corners - Under 10.5 (-102) 0.75 units
When these two met earlier in the season, the game ended 3-2 and there were still only ten corners taken. It won't be that entertaining on Saturday. They rank 19th and 20th respectively for corners taken this season. Forest has only had six corners in their last three games while Bournemouth has taken ten in their last three.
Player to watch: Morgan Gibbs-White
Forest's record signing was picked as my player to watch last week and duly obliged with two assists. He's now got four assists and two goals this season and easily leads Forest in shot-creating actions (57), with the next highest having 27. He picked up an assist in the reverse fixture back in matchweek six.
Brighton (+113) at Leicester City (+263) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 3 Brighton
Leicester has struggled mightily since the restart, losing all four games and scoring just once. The continued absence of James Maddison is a huge problem and one that Leicester hasn't been able to cope with. Brighton, meanwhile, has gone from strength to strength and now sits in seventh place following their third win in four games. They've also scored 12 goals in their last four games netting at least twice in each contest.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+126) 1 unit
Leicester may have struggled to score goals recently but Brighton has equally struggled to keep them out. Last week's clean sheet was Brighton's first in eight EPL games and they'd conceded 14 goals in their previous seven games. Brighton to win the game appeals but regardless of how the game plays out, I'm expecting goals.
Player to watch: Alexis Mac Allister
Solly March has been amongst the goals lately while Kaoru Mitoma has been scoring and assisting. But I'm backing World Cup winner Mac Allister to remind fans what he's capable of. Last week was his first start since the World Cup and with Leandro Trossard out in the cold, Brighton will be keen for Mac Allister to find his best club form again.
Aston Villa (+157) at Southampton (+195) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 1 Aston Villa
Southampton ended their six-game losing run last weekend but it wasn't enough to move them off of the bottom place in the table. Villa continued their upturn in form since Unai Emery took charge and have taken seven points in their four games since the World Cup. The last time they lost to a side currently in the bottom half of the table was back in matchweek four (six games against such sides since that defeat).
Betting pick: Total goals range - 2-3 (+108) 0.75 units
No matter how I see this game pan out, there are almost always two or three goals scored. That has been the case in four of Villa's last five league games and in two of Southampton's last three. Southampton has scored exactly one goal in seven of their last ten EPL games and although they come into this on the back of three consecutive wins in all competitions, they've yet to win back-to-back league games this season.
Player to watch: Leon Bailey
I picked him last week and he didn't let me down with a goal and assist so I'm backing him to have a similar impact again this weekend. He's been a regular starter up front for Villa since Emery took charge and has been a big reason for their improved form recently.
Everton (+398) at West Ham United (-124) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 - 1 Everton
The first "El Sackico" of the season with the losing manager very likely to find himself out of a job before next weekend. Both teams are residing in the relegation zone, with both having picked up a solitary point from their four games since the World Cup. A win could propel either side up to 14th place in the league but a defeat could see them bottom out and in search of a new manager.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay - West Ham United under 2.5 goals, Everton under 1.5 goals, and total corners under 11.5 (+120) 1 unit
I hate predicting this game and if I had to choose a result, I'd back the home side to win by the odd goal. But, nothing of value stands out so I'm going with this parlay. West Ham hasn't scored more than twice in any of their last ten EPL games while Everton hasn't scored twice in any of their last seven. West Ham's four games since the World Cup have averaged 9.25 corners and Everton's have averaged 7.25.
Player to watch: Declan Rice
In truth, I want nothing to do with this game in DFS or FPL but I'm opting for Rice as the West Ham captain has been heavily linked with a move away from the club this Summer and he might want to make sure he doesn't come under fire from the fanbase in the coming weeks. He actually leads the team in shot-creating actions too so if you are inclined play someone in DFS from this game, Rice is one of the better options.
Newcastle United (-107) at Crystal Palace (+343) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 1 Newcastle United
Palace picked up a needed point in midweek against Manchester United, having lost four of their previous five EPL games. Michael Olise's last-minute free-kick equalizer was only Palace's third goal in their last six league games. Newcastle's late winner against Fulham last weekend avoided a third-straight goalless draw but they needed Aleksandar Mitrović to slip while taking a penalty to secure the clean sheet.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - No and under 2.5 (+125) 0.5 units
Palace needed a magical free-kick to find the net on Wednesday and their only other goals in their last six EPL games came against Bournemouth; the team with the worst defensive record in the league. Newcastle has kept a clean sheet in each of their last five EPL games and only eight of their 19 league games this season has seen both teams score.
Player to watch: Alexander Isak
Isak came off the bench to net Newcastle's winner last weekend and given their recent lack of goals, he's in line to start if he is fully match-fit, having not started a league game since September. In limited action, Isak has been productive with three goals in four games (three starts) since joining the club. If he starts for Newcastle, he's a solid DFS option but that's not a given so I'm not starting him in FPL.
Sunday, January 22nd, 2023
Brentford (+198) at Leeds United (+141) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 2 Brentford
Leeds has only picked up two points from their four games since the World Cup and now finds themselves just two points above the relegation zone. Brentford has taken ten points in their four games since the restart and won their last three, scoring nine goals in those four games. But Brentford has only two away wins in nine games this season while 12 of Leeds' 17 points have been won at home.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Over 2.5 total goals, both teams to score and a goal in both halves (+110) 0.5 units
Brentford has been in great form but conceding goals away from home has been an issue and only four teams have conceded more than Brentford (18) in away games. Leeds' 9 home games have totaled 29 goals with both teams scoring in six of them and in each of the last four. Their last four games have actually seen a total of 20 goals so I'm expecting more of the same on Sunday.
Player to watch: Degnand Gnonto
The teenage winger put in a man-of-the-match performance against Villa last time out in a losing effort. He was a constant threat down Leeds' left side and despite only turning 19 years old in November, already has eight caps for Italy. For the attacking positions Leeds gets into, they should score more than they do but Gnonto certainly cannot be blamed for their profligacy.
Wolves (+1415) at Manchester City (-506) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 - 0 Wolves
Manchester City was on the brink of disaster when trailing 2-0 at half-time to Tottenham on Thursday but managed to turn things around and take the points with a 4-2 win. They still didn't look near their best for most of the game though. Wolves are still struggling in front of goal despite two wins and one draw in their four games since the World Cup. Wolves have only scored four goals in that period and remain the league's lowest scorers (12).
Betting pick: Handicap - Wolves +2.0 (-103) 0.75 units
Under Julen Lopetegui, Wolves has taken seven points in four games with their only loss being a 1-0 defeat against Manchester United. It's now ten EPL games since City has beaten a team by more than two goals so I don't expect this to be as easy for the reigning champions as the sportsbooks predict it will be.
Player to watch: Julián Álvarez
Álvarez made only his fourth EPL start of the season on Thursday and made the most of it by finding the net. He's now scored in three of his four EPL starts and eight of his nine goals for City in all competitions have come at home. He's likely done enough to get another start this weekend and is a nice discounted alternative to Haaland.
Manchester United (+284) at Arsenal (-100) 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 1 - 1 Manchester United
The game of the weekend sees first host third and a win for Arsenal will see them move 11 points clear of United. But an away win will move United to just five points off the top spot and would keep their outside title chances alive. Arsenal's only defeat this season came in the reverse fixture and they have ten wins and two draws since that defeat, while United has eight wins, three draws, and one defeat in their last 12 EPL games.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Both teams to score and over 3.5 total cards (+135) 0.5 units and either team to receive a red card (+340) 0.25 units
There's too much attacking talent on the pitch for both teams to not score and the last three league meetings between the two sides have seen 13 goals with both teams finding the net in each of them. Although this fixture isn't as intense as it has been in recent seasons, the meeting earlier in the season saw six yellow cards, and the fixture last season saw seven bookings.
The referee for this game is set to be Anthony Taylor, who has shown more yellow cards (54) and red cards (five) than any other ref this season. With more on the line than in recent years when these two have met, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Taylor brandishes his sixth red card of the season.
Player to watch: Martin Ødegaard
The Arsenal captain has been in sensational form recently with two goals and three assists in four games since the World Cup. If Arsenal is to go on a secure a memorable league title, Ødegaard will have been a huge reason why and if he puts in another captain's performance on Sunday, Arsenal will likely take another big step towards that goal.
Monday, January 23rd, 2023
Tottenham (+118) at Fulham (+230) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Fulham 2 - 2 Tottenham
Fulham was unlucky not to take at least a point off of Newcastle, with the Mitrović slip denying them a penalty goal and ultimately ending their winning run at four games. Tottenham's week went from bad to worse with their 2-0 derby defeat to Arsenal followed by a 4-2 defeat at Manchester City having led 2-0 at half-time. It's now one win in their last five EPL games for Tottenham and ten points in their last ten games.
Betting pick: Highest scoring half - Second half (-115) 1 unit
No team has scored more second-half goals this season than Tottenham (27). Fulham's 20 league games have seen a total of 24 goals in the first half and 37 in the second half. Don't be surprised if this game is goalless at the break and comes to life after the interval.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
Kane comes into this weekend having not scored in back-to-back league games for the first time this season. He found the net in the reverse fixture back in matchweek six. Kane has only faced Fulham away from home once in the league and didn't score so he'll be keen to add Craven Cottage to the list of stadiums he's scored at.
Parlays
Double Chance - Brighton win or draw, Nottingham Forest win or draw & West Ham United win or draw (+117) 2 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
