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Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 5 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.
This is the fifth week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 5, we saw stat lines such as the Atlanta Falcons tight end room combining for 20 receiving yards, the Houston Texans' wide receiver room seeing 12 targets, and the San Francisco 49ers running back room totaling 199 yards from scrimmage.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Los Angeles Rams Running Backs
Sean McVay & Liam Coen
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Rams | 21.82 | 91.59 | 0.53 | 3.12 | 4.47 | 18.47 | 0.24 |
| Sean McVay Prior (129 games) | 22.27 | 96.43 | 0.77 | 3.88 | 5.29 | 34.78 | 0.22 |
| Rams RBs vs. Dallas Cowboys | 13 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
The Los Angeles Rams running back room couldn't get much going against the dominant Dallas Cowboys defense, as they combined for 13 carries, 33 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, four receptions, six targets, 30 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 85 carries (17 per game), 289 rushing yards (57.8 per game), two rushing touchdowns (0.4 per game), 14 receptions (2.8 per game), 20 targets (four per game), 86 receiving yards (17.2 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the season.
While buying one of the Rams' running backs may not seem like a very appealing move on paper, they are clearly going to be in for better days ahead – most likely starting after the BYE week in Week 7. You should be stashing Kyren Williams if you have an open IR spot, and if you have Darrell Henderson or Cam Akers you should hold tight for another couple of weeks if you can afford to be patient.
Fantasy players this impacts: Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, Kyren Williams
Atlanta Falcons Tight Ends
Arthur Smith & Dave Ragone
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Falcons | 6.35 | 9.29 | 79.71 | 0.29 |
| Arthur Smith Prior (49 Games) | 5.67 | 8.22 | 66.73 | 0.49 |
| Falcons TEs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
For the second week in a row, the Atlanta Falcons' tight end room lands on this list as they combined for two receptions on two targets for 20 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After this game, this group has totaled 17 receptions (3.4 per game) on 31 targets (6.2 per game) for 230 receiving yards (46 per game) and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the season.
Comparing these numbers to Arthur Smith's career tight end room averages, it's clear that there should be a little bounce-back for this group – especially when Kyle Pitts makes his return to action. If you have Kyle Pitts you are holding and hoping that the positive regression will be enough to make him a mid-tier TE1 for 202
Fantasy players this impacts: Kyle Pitts, Parker Hesse, Anthony Firkser
Houston Texans Wide Receivers
Pep Hamilton
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Texans | 11.94 | 18.76 | 144.88 | 0.88 |
| Pep Hamilton Prior (49 games) | 13.4 | 23.55 | 177.05 | 1.08 |
| Texans WRs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 8 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
In the victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Houston Texans' wide receiver room combined for just eight receptions on 12 targets for 85 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has totaled 48 receptions (9.6 per game) on 87 targets (17.4 per game) for 630 receiving yards (126 per game) and one receiving touchdown (0.2 per game).
These numbers are lower than the 2021 Texans wide receiver room's numbers as well as offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton's previous career averages, which suggest that there's a potential buy-low opportunity here. Clearly now would be a good time to buy Brandin Cooks – especially since fantasy players may be more willing to sell since he's on a BYE week this upcoming week.
Fantasy players this impacts: Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, Chris Moore, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Conley
Dallas Cowboys Tight Ends
Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Cowboys | 5.65 | 7.65 | 56.59 | 0.65 |
| Mike McCarthy Prior (332 games) | 3.77 | 5.87 | 39.98 | 0.34 |
| Kellen Moore Prior (49 games) | 5.43 | 7.37 | 53.04 | 0.45 |
| Cowboys TEs vs. Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The Dallas Cowboys tight end room had a rough game against the Los Angeles Rams this past week as they combined for just one target. On the season this group has totaled 15 receptions (three per game) on 24 targets (4.8 per game) for 143 receiving yards (28.6 per game) and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game). Dalton Schultz going down in the game and Cooper Rush playing quarterback the past four weeks has been a big reason why this group hasn't lived up to expectations so far. Looking towards the future, there should be brighter days ahead for this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot
Detroit Lions Tight Ends
Dan Campbell & Ben Johnson
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Lions | 4.71 | 6.65 | 45.71 | 0.35 |
| Dan Campbell Prior (29 Games) | 4.17 | 6.17 | 38.62 | 0.34 |
| Lions TEs vs. New England Patriots | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
As mentioned in the Week 4 entry of this series, the Detroit Lions' tight end room was due for a subpar fantasy game and that subpar game came against the New England Patriots. In Sunday's game against the Patriots, this group struggled to the tune of one reception on four targets for six receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.
After this game, this group has totaled 20 receptions (four per game) on 35 targets (seven per game) for 290 receiving yards (58 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.6 per game) on the season. The season averages are still a little high, but overall we can expect better fantasy performances from the Lions' tight end room than what we saw this past Sunday.
Fantasy players this impacts: T.J. Hockenson and Brock Wright
Decline Ahead?
As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Los Angeles Chargers Running Backs
Joe Lombardi
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Chargers | 20.18 | 86.12 | 0.88 | 5.76 | 7.53 | 50.71 | 0.47 |
| Joe Lombardi Prior (40 games) | 19.90 | 77.90 | 0.65 | 6.60 | 9.18 | 56.25 | 0.40 |
| Chargers RBs vs. Cleveland Browns | 27 | 222 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
The Los Angeles Chargers running back room went off against the Cleveland Browns this past week, combining for 27 carries, 222 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, six receptions, six targets, 59 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. On the season this group has totaled 107 carries (21.4 per game), 475 rushing yards (95 per game), four rushing touchdowns (0.8 per game), 43 receptions (8.6 per game), 49 targets (9.8 per game), 301 receiving yards (60.2 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.4 per game).
This pace is on the higher end of what we would normally expect from a Joe Lombardi running back room, but even if there is a little regression Austin Ekeler should still be a strong RB1.
Fantasy players this impacts: Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, and Sony Michel
San Francisco 49ers Running Backs
Kyle Shanahan
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 49ers | 20.47 | 89.59 | 0.53 | 3.06 | 3.59 | 20.65 | 0.06 |
| Kyle Shanahan Prior (225 games) | 22.93 | 99.63 | 0.76 | 3.98 | 5.36 | 31.88 | 0.16 |
| 49ers RBs vs. Carolina Panthers | 25 | 143 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
The San Francisco 49ers running back room combined for 25 carries, 143 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, four receptions, five targets, 56 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in their victory this past Sunday. After this game, this group has totaled 103 carries (20.6 per game), 479 rushing yards (95.8 per game), three rushing touchdowns (0.6 per game), 11 receptions (2.2 per game), 12 targets (2.4 per game), 114 receiving yards (22.8 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.2 per game) on the season.
The season averages are largely in line with what we'd expect from a Kyle Shanahan running back room, so this is probably more of a situation where you just hold Jeff Wilson and enjoy the ride rather than try to sell him high.
Fantasy players this impacts: Elijah Mitchell, Jeff Wilson, Jordan Mason, Tevin Coleman, Tyrion Davis-Price
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