RADIO
What the hell is Week Zero, anyway? A week that isn't really a week? I'm not going to complain too much because COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK! This is like Christmas Eve for me!
Just for a recap, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game each week. I'm not going to cherry-pick a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right?
Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football. Are you ready? I sure am!!
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I gained 51 points on the casinos last year and am now at 78 positive points since I started doing this in 2016. Last year I got a little more in-depth to see which teams I made and lost the most on, betting for or against. I wanted to do that to see if I have an inherent bias somewhere without even realizing it. That sheet is available here for you super-nerds like me. I will keep a running total of it this season.
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
There are only seven FBS vs. FBS games in the first week, but that's a step up from last year. Due to the lack of accurate spreads on FBS vs. FCS games, I won't make official picks on those. They aren't on the board at most Vegas casinos anyway (if you absolutely INSIST on betting on these, contact me via Twitter or in the RotoBaller Discord and I will try to help).
Nebraska (-11.5) vs. Northwestern at Dublin, Ireland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Nebraska burned me last year. I was high on them coming into the season and they got thrashed by Illinois. So what has changed? A lot. Scott Frost is no longer calling the plays and Casey Thompson will be the new quarterback. Even with all of the turmoil last year, Nebraska handed Northwestern their worst loss of the season. So...I'm a little surprised that the line is this low.
I have serious questions about the Nebraska receivers, especially with rumblings that Omar Manning may not play. Still, Thompson is an upgrade over Adrian Martinez and the Cornhuskers still have plenty of good running backs. I don't see where Northwestern's defense – a unit that allowed 34 points per game in conference games last year – got markedly better. Give me Nebraska.
Connecticut at Utah State (-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels a little high. Jim Mora is the new coach at UConn, and with him came an influx of talent. None of it is proven at the college level yet, but if Mora can get them to play hard, this is a big number. Utah State returns most of their offense, a unit that scored 32.6 points per game last season. This is a total Utah State can get to, but I'm lowering the bet just in case UConn is much better right out of the gate.
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Wyoming at Illinois (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Let's start with what we know. Illinois retains most of their offense, but they were 116th out of 130 teams in scoring last season. 107 of their 242 points were scored in the first two and the last game. So Illinois seems to start hot. Wyoming lost Levi Williams to Utah State, but gained Andrew Peasley from Utah State. That's unofficially the first trade in college football history. The Cowboys also lost Xazavian Valladay to Arizona State, so that's a big hole in their offense.
Still...two touchdowns to Illinois? The largest win for the Illini last season before the trouncing of Northwestern during rivalry week was 10 points over Charlotte. I just don't see it. Give me Wyoming and the points.
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Owls beat up on Charlotte last year and have mostly the same roster. Charlotte returns most of their key players as well, but is it enough to keep this a single-digit game when they lost by 29 last year? I have my doubts. Give me the Owls.
North Texas (-1.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The loss of Jacob Cowing is a blow to the Miners. However, North Texas lost do-everything back DeAndre Torrey as well. UTEP returns all of their running backs and the rest of their receivers from last year and Austin Aune still won the QB job at North Texas. He only threw nine touchdowns all of last season. Yes, the loss of Cowing hurts, but North Texas is going to have to put a lot more on Aune here. I'll take the Miners at home.
Nevada (-8.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line opened at -17.5 and probably should have stayed in double digits. I feel pretty confident taking this at what amounts to half price. I understand that there is going to be a transition for Nevada after losing Carson Strong – their best QB since Colin Kaepernick – and Romeo Doubs, who is the darling of Green Bay summer camp. Still, Toa Taua is probably going to play on Sundays. That alone is enough to take the Wolf Pack against the Aggies, whose only wins last year were against South Carolina State and UMass. Give me Nevada. This is way too low!
Vanderbilt (-9.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line opened at -1 and jumped since Hawaii still hasn't announced who is starting a QB. Pitt transfer Joey Yellen is among three guys listed as co-starters on the depth chart. That's not to say that the Commodores don't have their issues as well. Vanderbilt lost the first game of the Clark Lea era by 20 points against East Tennessee State last year. However, by the end of the season, the Dores were hanging with the likes of Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. I believe that Timmy Chang was a great hire for the Warriors, but losing most of your offense and not having the replacement clearly decided doesn't seem conducive to beating a SEC team, even a bottom-feeder like Vandy. I'll take the Commodores.
Overall, I have 21 betting points on the line this week. I fully expect to win them all, but who knows how that will go? Weeks 0-3 are very strange in college football and are usually pretty difficult for betting purposes. Good luck out there!
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