Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Brls/BBE% For Week 9

June 7, 2022

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose Brls/BBE% could make them adds, drops or trade targets for Week 9.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. With two months in the books, fantasy managers can start building more accurate profiles of pitchers who could continue to help or hurt their teams. This week, I'll look at a metric that indicates how much damaging contact pitchers allow: barrels per batted-ball events (Brls/BBE%).

A barrel is a batted-ball event whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. In other words, a barrel is a hit profile tied to the most damaging contact a pitcher can allow. MLB.com has more information and a nice visual to further explain.

I have written about the quality of contact and launch angle separately so far this season, but Brls/BBE% ties those together. Using Brls/BBE% as opposed to Brls/PA only considers balls that were actually hit. Allowing damaging contact leaves little room for fantasy success, so let's take a look at some Studs and Duds!

Brls/BBE% Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 5, 2022.

Graham Ashcraft, Cincinnati Reds
2-0, 1.53 ERA, 12.7% K%, 1.8% Brls/BBE% 

With a cool last name and a 97-MPH cutter, how can fantasy managers not be excited by Graham Ashcraft? The 24-year-old has made just three starts for the Reds this season but has compiled a pristine 1.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP to this point. Further, his 1.8% Brls/BBE% is one of the best among all pitchers, relievers included. Rostered in just eight percent of leagues, is Ashcraft a pitcher that can help fantasy managers?

Ashcraft has the pitch arsenal to avoid hard contact. Everything he throws is hard and he gets good movement on his pitches, relying on a cutter, sinker, and slider. All of this allows him to avoid hitters' barrels; his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 97th and 66th percentiles of baseball, respectively, and he has generated a -4.3-degree launch angle. His batted-ball profile is great, but the interesting thing is the lack of strikeouts to this point.

Despite throwing so hard with movement, Ashcraft has generated just a 7.3% swinging-strike rate and a very low 12.7% strikeout rate. His strikeout rate at Triple-A Louisville this season was higher at 20%, but even that is low. It has been a small sample so far, but Ashcraft's fantasy value will be limited if he can't strike hitters out.

Ashcraft has all the makings of an intriguing fantasy option. He throws hard, has gotten strong results in general, and has done a great job avoiding damaging contact. However, he has not been able to convert his stuff into strikeouts, which is concerning, particularly because his minor-league strikeout numbers weren't great either. He is worth keeping an eye on at this time, but I would like to see more before buying into him.

Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
3-2, 5.73 ERA, 28.7% K%, 1.9% Brls/BBE% 

Alex Cobb had a solid 2021 season when he was healthy and was rewarded by the Giants in the offseason with a two-year deal. He has not paid off for the Giants or fantasy managers so far, compiling an inflated 5.73 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while dealing with various injuries over 37 2/3 innings pitched. However, he has generated a promising 28.7% strikeout rate and has avoided damaging contact with a 1.9% Brls/BBE%. Could the veteran actually be a buy-low candidate?

The good sign is that there is a pretty straightforward verdict. First, Cobb's Statcast profile has been great across the board. He has done a solid job avoiding hard contact and has a -3.6-degree launch angle, thanks to his sinker and split-finger fastball. He also has a 2.64 SIERA, which is obviously much lowering than his ERA.

Cobb pitched well in 2021 and has great underlying numbers this season, despite his peripherals. I would highly recommend Cobb as a buy-low candidate if not for his injury potential. He only pitched 93 1/3 IP last season and hasn't pitched 150 IP or more since 2018. All in all, there is still a risk for Cobb, but I would definitely take a chance on him if the price for him was reasonable enough.

Brls/BBE% Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 5, 2022.

Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals
6-4, 4.71 ERA, 25.8% K%, 14.8% Brls/BBE%

Josiah Gray has been an intriguing fantasy prospect for some time now, although the 24-year-old hasn't exactly delivered on the hype in his big-league career. He has compiled a lackluster 4.71 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his first 11 starts. Further, his high 14.8% Brls/BBE% helps to explain his peripherals. It is too early for fantasy managers to give up on Gray in dynasty leagues, but what about in re-draft leagues?

The main culprit appears to be Gray's fastball. He has a very poor 24.8-degree launch angle overall, but he has thrown his fastball 45.5 percent of the time and has kept the pitch up in the zone. Consequently, he has allowed a 28-degree launch angle with it and has yielded a .645 slugging percentage. His results from his slider and curveball have been excellent, but he simply hasn't gotten the job done with his fastball.

Gray's pitch mix tells two completely different stories. His off-speed pitches paint the picture of a stellar, higher-end starter, but his fastball depicts a starter who is not ready to succeed in the big leagues. This may just be a case that could be rectified if Gray threw his fastball less, but fantasy managers likely don't have time to wait around for that potential change in re-draft leagues.

Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals
2-1, 4.15 ERA, 24.6% K%, 12.6% Brls/BBE%

Brady Singer is another young pitcher who has carried fantasy intrigue throughout his career. He started the season out of the bullpen but has since made four starts with a 3.65 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. However, he has allowed a 12.6% Brls/BBE% overall and has a 13% Barrel rate over those four starts. Could Singer end up being a useful streamer this season?

The evidence for those starts is pretty interesting, albeit a small sample. He allowed a 91-MPH exit velocity and 36.2% hard-hit rate over those starts with a 6.5-degree launch angle and has a 2.72 SIERA to back that up. That being said, his barrel rate was still high, which may have to do with the lack of movement on his pitches. In other words, he may be generating decent batted-ball results, but giving up poor contact when the ball is hit in the air.

Overall, Singer has done a decent job in his starts this season and has decent underlying numbers. He has allowed a high Brls/BBE% but has a fine batted-ball profile. Singer's pedigree and results have been enough for some fantasy managers to buy in, as he is currently 37 percent rostered. However, I would still like to see a larger sample size of success before drawing a conclusion.

More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis