Power Hitters Who Surged in September - Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker, Jarred Kelenic

March 30, 2022

John Flanigan identifies AL power hitters who surged late last season that could be strong fantasy baseball draft targets for 2022 to help with home runs.

Whether their team is in the playoff hunt or not, it’s always big for guys to finish the season out on a strong note. Even if it’s in meaningless games, guys can look to carry that positive momentum into spring training and then the next season.

In 2021, we saw some really strong performances at the plate over the final stretch of the season.

Here are three of those hitters who were breakouts and shined in the power department during the month of September and could offer huge help based on power potential in 2022.

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Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays

I highlighted Hernandez while breaking down three of the AL hitters who had career years at the plate last week. The young slugger has finally settled in and showcased his power potential in the middle of the Blue Jays lineup.

Over 143 games last season, Hernandez hit 29 doubles and posted new career highs with 32 home runs (18th in the AL) and 116 RBI (third in the AL). His 4.0 WAR was the eighth highest amongst AL outfielders and he posted a .870 OPS and .346 OBP.

He finished above the 85th percentile in both max and average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel percentage. With the Blue Jays fighting for a playoff spot towards the end of the season, Hernandez took his game to another level.

He hit 10 home runs, his highest total for any month last season, while also hitting six doubles and driving in 30 runs. Hernandez also recorded a solid 129 OPS+ and .999 OPS over 31 September games. He will look to carry that momentum into what should be a big season for the Blue Jays. 

Hernandez is already getting some love from the national media, as he was named the eighth-best right fielder in baseball right now by MLB Network. He’s very quickly established himself as a key member of this young and talented Blue Jays core.

Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros

From one former slugging Astros outfielder to a current Astros slugging outfielder.

Astros top prospect Kyle Tucker finally received his shot at everyday playing time, and man did he take advantage of it. The 25-year-old had an incredible breakout year at the plate, finishing 20th in American League MVP voting.

Tucker hit 30 home runs and 37 doubles while driving in 92 runs and adding 14 stolen bases. He struck out just 90 times over 140 games for a 15.9% K-rate and posted a 147 OPS+, .359 OBP, and .917 OPS.

Tucker’s barrel percentage, max, average velocity, and hard-hit percentage all finished around or better than the 80th percentile. Additionally, his xBA, xSLG, WOBA, and xWOBA all finished above the Top-10% of the league.

Tucker really shined over the second half, and by far his best month of the season was September. For the month, he finished in the Top-10 in slugging percentage (.692), OPS (1.130), batting average (.333), and on-base percentage (.431).

Tucker tied teammate Jose Altuve for second with 10 doubles, picked up his third triple of the season, added 19 RBI to his total, and hit eight home runs. Additionally, Tucker drew two more walks (16) than he had strikeouts (14).

Tucker isn’t a sleeper anymore by any means, but I had to highlight the month of September he had at the plate. The sweet-swinging lefty is going to be a force in this league for a very long time.

Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners

Kelenic is another guy who I wrote about earlier this offseason as a potential breakout candidate. The first stint in the big league didn’t quite go as planned for the Mariners' top prospect.

Like many youngsters, Kelenic looked overmatched at first and was ultimately sent back down to get his head straight. When he came back, he finally began coming into his own at the plate.

Though it was only a 30-game sample size, the month of September was definitely his best stretch of the season. In the midst of a playoff push, Kelenic posted a .331 OBP, 135 wRC+, .854 OPS, and hit half of his home runs and doubles.

You can tell that he began to become more comfortable and confident at the dish. He was able to cut down on his strikeout rate and posted a relatively solid walk rate for a 21-year-old in his first stay in the show.

That experience will certainly help him as he heads into his first full season in the big leagues. Mariners manager Scott Servais recently told reporters Kelenic is in a completely different mindset now compared to last spring training. 

With one year under his belt and a strong final stretch to build off of, Kelenic could be looking at a monster sophomore campaign in Seattle.

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