Shortstop Breakout Candidates For 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

1 month ago by Jamie Steed

There has never been a better time for shortstops in fantasy. With eight shortstop-eligible players being drafted inside the first four rounds this year, you almost can't go wrong taking one. Still, if you can find value at the position by drafting one that exceeds expectations, your team will be in a great position.

With so many options at shortstop, you might be tempted to take two of the top options. However, there are four going outside the top 50 overall picks who are all set to have breakout seasons and look undervalued in drafts. Here, we'll take a closer look at that quartet.

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Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates

While everyone has been banging on about Elly De La Cruz this offseason, they seem to be forgetting the original all-action shortstop. I mentioned it earlier this Spring; Oneil Cruz was Elly De La Cruz before Elly De La Cruz was Elly De La Cruz. By that, I mean that Oneil Cruz was an elite power and speed dual threat a year ago before his season ended after nine games.

Cruz had a breakout of sorts in 2022, which saw him hyped up last Spring. In 87 games, Cruz had 17 homers and 10 stolen bases. He had three stolen bases in the nine games before fracturing his ankle against the White Sox. We potentially now have a full season to see Cruz show off his talents. That's with the shift-ban and larger bases. Considering what he's done in his young career, that's a tantalizing thought.

Cruz has lit up Spring Training with seven home runs. While they are great to see, the best part is they show us that Cruz is fully healthy. ATC projects Cruz for 23 homers and 22 steals. I'm projecting Cruz to be in the National League MVP conversation. Few players can boast the strength and speed that Cruz possesses (his namesake being another). He should benefit greatly from last year's rule changes, and a 30/30 season is in Cruz's near future.

Oneil Cruz swats his 7th‼️ #SpringTraining home run pic.twitter.com/btgH7KHYyZ

— MLB (@MLB) March 18, 2024

Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees

It's not often a rookie can have a 20/20 season and still have an ADP (average draft position) outside of the first 10 rounds. That is the case for Volpe right now, with an ADP around 130. Last year, Volpe hit .209/.283/.383 with 21 homers, 60 RBI, 62 runs and 24 stolen bases (159 games). Volpe led the Yankees in games played last year, and there's no reason he can't do the same in 2024.

The Gold Glove Award winner will be an everyday player. Volpe's defense is one of the reasons why the Yankees kept him in the lineup despite a low batting average and on-base percentage. Even hitting in the bottom third of the lineup most days, Volpe will be able to reach ~600 plate appearances again. Volpe also had better-expected numbers than his actual stats. His .230 xBA suggests we should see an improved batting average in 2024.

That will lead to more steals, and the Yankees offense should be better than last season (ranking 25th in runs scored), helping his RBI and runs totals. Things are trending towards Volpe having a breakout sophomore season. He got off to a slow start in 2023. With a full year of MLB experience under his belt, Volpe should be able to start strong and carry that through the entire season.

Thairo Estrada, San Francisco

Estrada backed up his 14 homers and 21 stolen bases season in 2022 with a 14 homers and 23 stolen bases season last year. He did it despite playing 20 fewer games in 2023. Estrada was in the midst of a breakout last year before a hand injury cost him a month of the season. If we compare his numbers before and after the injury, we can see just how good Estrada was in the first three months of the year.

Split	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR	SB	wRC+
1^st half	315	.272	.327	.434	.329	9	18	109
2^nd half	215	.268	.298	.390	.298	5	5	89

If it wasn't for the injury, we may well have seen Estrada have a 20/30 season. That would certainly have seen him going much earlier in drafts than he has been (ADP ~134). The fractured hand occurred after getting hit by a pitch. That's not something you can expect to reoccur or use to consider someone an injury risk. Estrada did miss 10 days with a sprained wrist a month earlier, but that wasn't serious with him missing the minimum time.

Other than a concussion in 2022, Estrada has stayed injury-free so I'm not concerned about him missing time more than I would anyone else. The additions of Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler, and Matt Chapman have strengthened the Giants lineup. While it remains to be seen where Estrada hits in the lineup, he should feature prominently. He's a genuine five-category threat in 2024 and is set to be in for a career year.

Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels

The Angels and tumult seem to go hand-in-hand. Losing Shohei Ohtani, questionable trades and contracts, plus Anthony Rendon admitting he isn't too bothered by baseball makes the Angels difficult to trust. They are set to rebuild and Neto is one of the building blocks around which they should be constructing their team. He did suffer from back and oblique issues last year. But it's too early in his career to be worried about injuries.

After being drafted in 2022, Neto raced through the Minor Leagues and reached the Majors last year. He ended up playing 84 games for the Angels and had respectable numbers. Neto hit .225/.308/.377 with nine homers, 34 RBI, 38 runs and five stolen bases. In his short Minor League career (48 games), Neto hit .321/.410/.551 with 10 homers, 40 RBI, 39 runs, and eight steals. It was easy to see why Neto was a first-round draft pick.

Any concerns that Neto won't start the year with the Angels appear to have been cast aside. Through 18 Spring games, Neto has hit .326/.360/.609 with three homers and four steals. He will likely hit in the lower half of the lineup. But if he can carry his hot bat into the regular season, Neto will find himself up the order quickly. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Neto this year and a 20/20 season isn't out of the question.

Zach Neto - Los Angeles Angels (3)* pic.twitter.com/5D1oYOuSnU

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) March 19, 2024

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