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Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding guide for Week 3 (2024) -- how many FAAB dollars (free agent acquisition budget) to spend on waivers.
Week 2 didn't ease up on us, supplying yet another batch of big-name injuries that now have us scrambling for options. Please remember that despite the perceived lack of premier adds to make, you only have to outlast your opponents! As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for, especially early. Each league values players differently so you must add the proper context -- context is king. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, with different categories of bids to reflect potential team-need situations.
Projected league aggression, total bench spots, and the overall depth of your league will determine your FAAB bids. Once again, fewer big performances could mean the top adds are overpriced, and scooping up your league mates' hasty drops yields the most profit. With that in mind, here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 3.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (QB, NO) - 19% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Count this writer among those who were skeptical Derek Carr and company could keep the momentum rolling against a non-Carolina defense. Carr quickly hit Rashid Shaheed for a 70-yard TD before Alvin Kamara housed a dump-off after 57 yards.
He’s got 443 yards and five TDs on just 30 completions and even snuck in a rushing score against Dallas. The big-play efficiency will dial back but Klint Kubiak’s scheme sure looks legit. The pre-snap motion, designed rollouts, and play-action frequency are unmatched thus far. Channeled creativity is paying off!
Saints rates and ranks
Play action
2023: 13% (32nd)
2024: 51% (1st)Designed rollouts
2023: 4% (25th)
2024: 16% (1st)Motion at the snap
2023: 14% (26th)
2024: 41% (5th)— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 16, 2024
Sam Darnold (QB, MIN) - 13% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-3%
Darnold’s Week 2 came with highs and lows, as the signal-caller connected with Justin Jefferson for a 97-yard TD and Jalen Nailor for a 10-yard score. But he would fumble twice (both recovered by MIN) and lose Jefferson to a quad injury in the third quarter.
Minnesota was already without Jordan Addison (ankle) and cannot absorb a Jefferson absence going into Week 3 against Houston. If Jefferson is out then Darnold plummets. I’ll also point out that the Vikings going to Lambeau in Week 4 and facing the Jets in Week 5 before a Week 6 bye isn’t ideal.
Gardner Minshew II (QB, LV) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Minshew let it rip in the second half on Sunday, compiling over 200 of his 276 passing yards after halftime in an eventual 26-23 upset of the Ravens. While Minshew has a gunslinger aura, he’s now 55-of-71 (77.4%) on passing with two touchdowns and two interceptions in two games.
Will Vegas try to get him pushing further downfield against Carolina or remain conservative in a cushy matchup?
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Carson Steele (RB, KC) - 4% rostered
Samaje Perine (RB, KC) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 15-18% / 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 18-30% / 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 30-40% / 12-16%
*Kareem Hunt has signed with the Chiefs on Tuesday afternoon. Hunt might know the playbook better than Perine! I am lowering the bid range on Perine as a result. We're giving Hunt a 5-8% FAAB bid range. This could devolve into a four-man committee mess but Hunt could require a couple of weeks before hitting game shape for 2024.*
Isiah Pacheco suffered a fractured fibula on Sunday and is slated to miss six to eight weeks. It’s another brutal blow for fantasy managers that leaves Steele and Perine for now. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out through Week 4 and Kareem Hunt is visiting, but Steele/Perine are the immediate factors.
Steele wound up with seven carries for 24 yards and a fumble lost while Perine had zero carries with just one three-yard reception. The Chiefs likely lean on Patrick Mahomes and the passing game more in Week 3 at Atlanta as a result, with Steele handling work between the tackles and near the goal line as Perine mixes in on third down.
It won’t be pretty but KC gets to the red zone often enough where you have to respect the role. We don’t know how much of the playbook Perine is trusted with yet so Steele’s familiarity and likelihood of getting goal-line reps give him the lean.
Reid on Carson Steele potentially becoming the featured back: "He's going to have to step it up in that role.''
— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) September 16, 2024
Ty Chandler (RB, MIN) - 29% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
One week after looking slower than Aaron Jones, it was Chandler who ran with more burst in Week 2. Chandler totalled 82 yards on 10 carries while Jones posted a 9-32-0 line with five catches for 36 yards. All this underscores is the commitment to a hot-hand split for those who got overconfident in Jones after last week.
Braelon Allen (RB, NYJ) - 9% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Allen made the most of his opportunities on Sunday, turning seven carries into 33 yards and a TD while four targets yielded two catches for 23 yards and another score. Breece Hall still had 21 touches for 114 yards and a TD of his own so don’t fret his share of the pie.
But Allen has the versatility and talent to be a league-winner if Hall becomes unavailable. That offensive line is healthy and the defense could regain its elite form at any point and provide weekly positive gamescripts for 30 or more RB touches for the room.
Love Braelon Allen. But was still a bit surprised by the split yesterday.
Snaps: Breece Hall 41-of-57, Braelon Allen 20
Routes: Breece 21-of-33, Braelon 12
Opportunities: Breece 22, Braelon 11 pic.twitter.com/nQrCWOkmW7
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024
Isaac Guerendo (RB, SF) - 6% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Guerendo is a healthy handcuff stash with Christian McCaffrey officially on the injured reserve for the foreseeable future. Not only that, but Deebo Samuel Sr. being out for a few weeks with a calf injury further opens up some carries. With a couple of practice weeks with more attention, perhaps Guerendo will generate some buzz.
Jordan Mason once again looked amazing on Sunday and ceded just one carry to Guerendo so there’s no standalone value for the backup, but he’s one injury away from being the man running behind Trent Williams. Add as needed.
Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU) - 5% rostered
Cam Akers (RB, HOU) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4% / 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5% / 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 5-8% / 4-6%
Joe Mixon is set to be evaluated this week due to an ankle injury that could limit or force him out of Week 3’s tilt with the Vikings. Pierce missed Week 2 but could step in with Akers to form an unassuming one-two punch.
Pierce had three carries for 16 yards in Week 1 as he looks to re-establish himself following a horrible 2023 campaign. Akers entered after Mixon’s injury on Sunday and got 35 yards on eight touches but did lose a fumble. Dare Ogunbowale might own passing downs but we want the big boy work.
The initial lean goes to Pierce if healthy, as he’d slide in around my RB30-34 range as a TD-dependent dart. Akers would assume that slot if Pierce and Mixon cannot go. Or perhaps they’ll just have C.J. Stroud uncork 40 passes instead.
Jaylen Wright (RB, MIA) - 22% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-4%
Wright looked hesitant to turn upfield with the ball in Week 2 but Jeff Wilson Jr. picked up an oblique injury as Raheem Mostert continues to nurse a chest injury. De'Von Achane had 29 touches on a short week while playing at less than 100% with an ankle issue.
Miami cannot let Achane bear such a heavy load so Wright could sleepwalk into eight to 12 touches here. I know that Mike McDaniel said Achane should continue to get tons of touches so maybe they’ll run him in the Wildcat!
Realistically, it’s difficult to imagine Achane wearing 20-25 touches each week. Let’s hope the explosiveness seen out of Wright during the preseason comes back. Mostert and JWJ getting healthy would send Wright back to the bench as he develops.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Demarcus Robinson (WR, LAR) - 42% rostered
Tyler Johnson (WR, LAR) - 11% rostered
Jordan Whittington (WR, LAR) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 15-20% / 8-12% / 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 20-30% / 12-18% / 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 30-40% / 18-25% / 6-10%
One of the biggest injuries in Week 2 saw Cooper Kupp limp off of the field as the first half was ending with an ankle issue and emerge after the game in a walking boot. The scoreboard was already tilted when Kupp got hurt and walking boots can be precautionary so it’s difficult to assume much.
But the Rams are already without Puka Nacua (IR, knee) and several offensive linemen while their defense remains unreliable. So what does this mean for the remaining Ram receivers?
Robinson led the unit with 50 yards on 48 snaps (out of 52) with 28 routes run, per PFF. They’ve used him as a deep threat and a schemed option in the red zone after featuring him down the stretch in 2023. He’s the best dart throw here, though he’s also rostered in more leagues.
Johnson’s 45 snaps and 25 routes run were close to Robinson, but he only saw three targets for a pair of catches for 20 yards. Jordan Whittington caught both targets for 22 yards while Tutu Atwell entered late and caught three of four looks for 48 yards.
Johnson’s speed makes him the highest upside of the rest while Whittington is unknown and creates a higher ceiling than Atwell if you must. Robinson looks like the only clear add regardless of Kupp’s status.
“Kupp, Demarcus Robinson and Johnson all played at least 90% of the Rams' offensive snaps in the first half.
Kupp didn’t play in the second half. Jordan Whittingtontook his place. Whittington played every snap in the second half. Tutu Atwell also played some snaps, cutting into… https://t.co/wMm50hGXIl
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) September 16, 2024
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) - 7% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-15%
One week after pacing the Chargers in first-read targets, Johnston nabbed a pair of touchdowns on a 5-51-2 day. His first score was a solid 29-yard grab while the second was a five-yard score on broken coverage where he simply stood alone in the end zone.
The initial returns for someone with low expectations are great but this offense wants to run the ball. Justin Herbert hasn’t thrown for more than 150 yards in either of their first two games this season. QJ and company are TD-dependent for most of us, but at least you’re siding with the big-bodied 2023 first-round pick on that train here.
Quentin Johnston through 2 games
- T-targets lead on Chargers
- leads in air yards
- leads in end zone targets
- 1st read on 39% of throws (3rd highest in NFL)Watched all his targets - lot more screens and short yard stuff for him which is his strength. Looks more comfortable https://t.co/uH5Cg1rsxa
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 17, 2024
Jauan Jennings (WR, SF) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-15%
Jennings and company will have to step up with Deebo Samuel Sr. set to miss a couple of weeks due to a calf strain. The veteran wide-out caught all five targets for 64 yards in Week 1 before a lackluster 2-37-0 line on four looks in Week 2. He did play with a questionable tag thanks to an ankle issue.
The Niners will face a struggling Rams team so getting any piece here is worthwhile. Deep-leaguers should also be mindful of rookie Jacob Cowing, second-year man Ronnie Bell, and Chris Conley. The upside is reflected by that order.
49ers healthy RBs thru 2 games:
* Jordan Mason, 48 carries
* Isaac Guerendo, 1 carry
* Patrick Taylor Jr., 0 carries49ers healthy WRs thru 2:
* Brandon Aiyuk, 10 targets
* Jauan Jennings, 9 targets
* Chris Conley, 1 target
* Ronnie Bell, 0 targets
* Jacob Cowing, 0 targets https://t.co/sBtDp30FFT— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) September 16, 2024
Andrei Iosivas (WR, CIN) - 7% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Iosivas had one of the quietest two-touchdown days a guy could have, tallying just seven yards on the two receptions. He’s in play as long as Tee Higgins is out but the No. 3 WR role isn’t as valuable as envisioned in the preseason. The Bengals should pick it up and have gotten off to slow starts in the past, but you’d like to see more early opportunities for Iosivas.
Jalen Nailor (WR, MIN) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Nailor notched 54 yards and his second touchdown in as many games on three catches in Week 2’s 23-17 win over San Francisco. He got more chances with Jordan Addison out with an ankle injury, and then Justin Jefferson left in the third quarter with a quad injury. Neither of those sound long term yet Nailor appears to be earning the No. 3 role. This should hold value though T.J. Hockenson’s eventual return will clutter the targets.
Alec Pierce (WR, IND) - 28% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Pierce still feels unsafe but he led the team in catches (five), yardage (56), and targets (eight), with another score in Week 2, per PFF. Adonai Mitchell only caught one of his four looks for 30 yards while Michael Pittman Jr. flopped with 3-21-0 on seven targets.
Josh Downs should return in Week 3 and throw everyone into a murky circle of fantasy trust until we get data with all of them on the field. Anthony Richardson has a high ceiling but now has 26 completions, three touchdowns, and four interceptions through two games.
Jalen Tolbert (WR, DAL) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Tolbert popped with a 6-82-0 line on nine targets after a quiet Week 1. Some of this may have been related to Jake Ferguson being out, but it’s still encouraging to see Tolbert own double the work over Jalen Brooks. There will be brighter days for a prolific passing offense here.
Jalen Tolbert led all Cowboys with a 22% target share in Week 2. He ran a route on 89% of Dallas' drop backs, up from the 69% rate he saw last week.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 16, 2024
Noah Brown (WR, WAS) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-4%
Brown is creeping into the WR rotation after joining the team following 53-man cutdowns that saw him waived from Houston. He’s still getting ramped up but managed to lead all Washington WRs with 56 yards on three catches and 12 routes run.
Dyami Brown ran double the routes but only had 2-17-0 on four targets while Olamide Zaccheaus had 3-14-0 and Luke McCaffrey posted a donut. The door is wide open next to Terry McLaurin and Brown, who provided three top-10 weeks last year, should rise to the top.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (TE, NE) - 24% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Henry had a slow Week 1 with only two catches on three targets but that pendulum swung in Week 2 with an 8-109-0 line on 12 targets. That line stands out even more when one considers Jacoby Brissett only completed 15 total passes for 149 yards on the day.
Every Patriot’s ceiling is capped until they turn the team over to Drake Maye but Henry looks to have Brissett’s trust. It’s fascinating that Henry got such work while Demario Douglas saw zero targets in the slot.
That speaks to the ripple effect buoying Henry’s value as New England’s lack of any true No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver allows the TE to step up. NE will face NYJ, SF, MIA, HOU, JAX, and NYJ again over the next six weeks so temper expectations.
Which TEs are coaches designing plays for?
TE leaders in first-read target share (per @FantasyPtsData):
Trey McBride - 28%
Brock Bowers - 27%
Evan Engram - 25%
Hunter Henry - 25%
Mike Gesicki - 25%— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) September 16, 2024
Mike Gesicki (TE, CIN) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
Gesicki stepped up as Joe Burrow’s No. 2 option with Tee Higgins out, hauling in seven of nine targets for 91 yards. This comes a week after a near-touchdown against New England that should’ve stood. If his line was 11-124-1 after two games we’d be fighting much harder for his services.
But do consider that Higgins should return soon and seize his piece of the pie. Then we’re stuck with the reality of Cincy’s TE rotation. Gesicki only played on 30-of-64 snaps (21 routes run) while Erick All Jr and Drew Sample played on 33 snaps each, combining for 25 routes and seven targets. And this is with Tanner Hudson out. Keep an eye on All.
Jonnu Smith (TE, MIA) - 6% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-4%
Smith caught six of seven looks for 53 yards in Week 2 as Miami scrambled for answers against Buffalo’s defense. This dynamic arose before Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion but Skylar Thompson led to even more disarray.
Brenton Strange (TE, JAC) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-3%
Strange was thrust into starting duty when Evan Engram hurt his hamstring during pregame warmups. He rewarded last-minute scramblers with three catches for 65 yards on six targets. Luke Farrell was the backup and had two catches for 13 yards so desperate Engram teams can keep Strange around for Monday Night Football at Buffalo.
Luke Schoonmaker (TE, DAL) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-3%
Schoonmaker filled Jake Ferguson’s role well, seeing six targets as Dak Prescott’s third option as a passing-down threat. Schoonmaker only played on 28-of-70 snaps and ran 17 routes per PFF, meaning he got a target on over one-third of his routes run.
He caught all six of those targets for 43 yards and would surely be needed against a stingy Baltimore defense in Week 3 if Ferguson isn’t ready. Banking on the same target-to-route ratio would be bold but another week of practice could yield more involvement overall.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Las Vegas Raiders Defense (vs. CAR) - 7% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
Carolina’s offense has scored 13 offensive points in two games, all while giving up six sacks and yielding four turnovers. It turns out that Dave Canales is not a magical fix-all problem for Bryce Young and the offense.
But now Andy Dalton has been tagged in and while he’s more competent than Young, the range of outcomes remain suspect. Dalton gives more hope to those of you rostering Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen, especially with Jonathon Brooks on the way.
The Raiders just toppled the Ravens and now face Carolina, Cleveland, Denver, and Pittsburgh in four straight weeks. It would be nice if they got more pressure outside of Maxx Crosby but that string of matchups is easily worth an add.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (vs. DEN) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
The Bucs were thin on defense and lost Vita Vea amidst their Week 2 victory over Detroit, but they still held the Lions to 16 points. They’ll host Bo Nix and the Broncos in Week 3, who have surrendered a pair of sacks and interceptions in back-to-back games to open the season. (Vea is "day-to-day" with a Grade 2 MCL sprain because he is awesome.)
Cincinnati Bengals Defense (vs. WAS) - 20% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-3%
Cincy nearly toppled the Chiefs in KC after getting embarrassed at home by the Patriots in Week 1. Some will blame the refs, but the defense certainly did its job in Week 2 with two sacks and three turnovers.
Now, they face a Washington team that just bled five sacks to the NYG as Jayden Daniels relentlessly scrambles the pocket. But guess what? The Bengals go on to face Carolina in Week 4 and the Giants in Week 6, with Baltimore sandwiched in between.
Green Bay Packers Defense (at TEN) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-3%
The Packers proved they could succeed without Jordan Love by defeating the Colts 16-10, with three interceptions and a sack behind the effort. Now they head to Tennessee to take on a Titans team that has given up seven sacks, five turnovers, two touchdowns, and two blocked kicks in two games. We’re streaming against Will Levis until further notice.
Seattle Seahawks Defense (vs. MIA) - 41% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-3%
The Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa managing a concussion and are preparing for Skylar Thompson to make the start in Week 3. Now, any professional quarterback with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane has a degree of danger for streaming.
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