X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Forwards (Part 3)

Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers

Antonio Losada looks at NBA forwards who look like draft sleepers or busts in the 2022-2023 fantasy basketball season judging by their early ADP prices.

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage.

Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good and for the bad. For whatever reason -- be it talent, a lack/surplus of opportunity, or some combination of those and multiple other things -- these are players who I'm actively tracking in drafts to see how their ADP evolves as we get closer to the regular season.

Let's look at some forwards who have sleeper/bust potential this year in fantasy basketball leagues.

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Forwards

Overvalued: Kawhi Leonard, SG/SF (LAC) - ADP: 27.8

Kawhi is the most disappointingly consistent player in the NBA. In other words, he's the one who seemingly always manages (pun intended) to play 55-to-60 games, but no more than that cutting his upside in fiercely infuriating ways. Kawhi has played 60, 57, and 52 games in the past three seasons. Or should I say four seasons, after he entirely missed the 2022 campaign? That, probably, would have made sense.

The last time Leonard "missed" a season, it was in 2018 when he only played nine games for the Spurs before getting traded to Toronto the next offseason, and he came back with enough mojo to earn Canada its first NBA chip. He posted 45 FPPG over 60 games, finished 2019 with a 26-7-3-2 stat line, and entered the top-35 OVR realm to go with a top-10 finish at the F position. Not bad, if you ask me.

He moved to Hollywood as a free agent, brought Paul George with him, and it's now been three top-10 F-position finishes in a row for him along with top-33, top-13, and top-35 OVR campaigns. Can he repeat that after spending one year out of the hardwood? We don't really know.

The ADP of around 27 OVR might make sense after all. Kawhi's ADP is very close to that of his teammate Paul Geroge (22 OVR as I'm writing this). Both come with similar concerns, mainly regarding their health and availability--on top of a top-heavy/loaded roster that includes John Wall ahead of the 2023 season, whatever role he takes on.

I'd say it's safe to bet on a top-30 finish by Kawhi next season. If--but only if--that's the case, then Kawhi's ADP might be in the perfect sweet spot right now. The minute Leonard misses more games than expected (say, he ends up playing 40-to-45 games), then things might start to fall more on the overpaid side than the underpaid one.

The shooting was incredible the last time we watched Kawhi (career-high TS% of 62.0 in 2021 with 51/40/88 shooting splits) but his 5+ APG should go down as should his 24+ PPG with George/Wall/Powell playing next to and getting touches from him.

Undervalued: Saddiq Bey, SF/PF (DET) - ADP: 88.7

Rookie Bey was good because he got tons of opportunities but not much more than that. He was a below-average player on a per-minute basis (0.83 FP/min) and his saving grace was the 27 MPG as part of a ridiculously bad team in Detroit--peep at the number of recent top-10 draft selections. In fact, among rookies in 2021 with 60+ games played, Bey would have led or finished near the top of most statistical categories on a per-36 minutes basis because he was given free rein and then some.

Sophomore Bey was even better than his 2021 version, but of course, he also got to use an above-average number of possessions, his playing time increased from 27 to 33 MPG, and he started all 82 games over the season. No wonder he finished as a top-15 F and top-40 player overall. That volume absolutely affords (and demands) that, if not more. He also was a borderline league-average player from an efficiency angle with an average of 0.91 FP/min. Slowly but surely, folks. Slowly but surely.

Bey is a good young player and has all of his career ahead. I'm betting on a steady improvement as long as Detroit has the room in the wings to keep giving him daily reps. The statistical increase was there last year, but again, so was the six-minute-per-game increase helping that. The TS% went almost four percentage points down and Bey shot below 40% from the floor with his massive 7.4 3PA a pop saving him even on a good-not-great 34.6 3P%.

The playing time can't go any higher and he will have the help of two lead guards taking eyes off him next season in second-year Cade Cunningham and rookie-PG Jaden Ivey. Bey has a promising path ahead and betting on him fulfilling this promise, at an ADP of nearly 90th OVR doesn't feel that crazy to me.

Overvalued: Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C (WAS) - ADP: 49.7

Remember the Tim Hardaway Jr. trade between the Knicks and the Mavericks? Well, if you don't allow me to remind you about an ancillary piece that was part of that deal, one of the New York Knicks came away victorious when all was said and done: Kristaps Porzingis. All of that is harsh, of course, but it is also very real. KP is not that KP anymore, the one who got booed by Knicks fans in the draft and then proceeded to do unheard-of things on basketball courts.

Porzingis has actually been a great performer for years on and even had his best season while playing for Dallas after the trade--and after missing the 2019 season entirely. Back then, in the bubble year of 2020, he put up a ridiculous 40.8 FPPG average and an even-better 1.28 FP/min... only he could only do it over 57 games. That wasn't bad in a season that ultimately got its usual 82 games cut down a bit. The problem is that the OG Unicorn has nearly missed more games than you'd have ever guessed.

In six years of NBA play, Porzingis has appeared in 337 of a potential 492, or just 68% of those. Not only that but he's never topped 32 MPG nor 57 games in the past four seasons (a span of five years, accounting for the season he missed) of his career. Someone like KP, only healthy enough to play around 70 games per season, would be a fantasy monster and a lock for perennial top-15 OVR production. Bad news: he is not.

Acquiring Porzingis with the 50th OVR pick in your draft is overpaying wildly for his projected production, and most importantly, availability. KP has never been better than the 38th-best player in the NBA and he's actually finished outside of the top-55 in all other five of his seasons. He's only cracked the top-20 at either C/F-eligible players twice in his career in the short 2020 season and the 2021 campaign... playing 43 games. Not liking such a glass-bone guy with limited production playing next to an opportunity-eater and huge-volume shooter/scorer such as Bradley Beal for a full season.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Michael Kim

Finishes Tied For 26 at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Deandre Ayton

Finalizing Contract Buyout With Portland
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr. Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Toronto Raptors

Garrett Temple Returning to Toronto
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF