2020 NFL Early-Draft Exploits: VOA vs. ADP for Running Backs

April 17, 2020

Antonio Losada uses his Value Over Average player metrics to find bargains and rip-offs in the early-draft days of the 2020 NFL preseason at the running back position.

If you're a loyal RotoBaller reader, you know we strive to give you the edge no matter the fantasy sport you happen to be playing. Just a few weeks ago I took another step and introduced three metrics for fantasy football: Value Over Starter (VOS), Value Over Average (VOA), and Value Over Replacement (VOR). The idea behind the concept was simple: take position scarcity into account and calculate how each player over/under-performed when compared to those with starter/average/replacement value at that concrete position. With that in mind, it is easy to identify who provides the most value at each skill position, how the players pertaining to it rank in similar tiers, and who should be drafted earlier based on how much more points he provides compared to his peers.

Now that we're locked into 2020, it's time to check some ADP values before the NFL draft, to see who is going under the radar, and who is being massively overvalued this time of the year. We've already looked at the WR position and TE position, and today running backs are up.

I already went through the data in another article as an introduction to the positional breakdowns. It's recommended you read that before digging in to this article, so that you understand all the metrics used. Using VOA+ and ADP, I will try to identify Both overvalued players at each position, and undervalued players going under the radar later in drafts. We'll compare players' performance levels to the average starter at the position to determine whether they're over or undervalued, and by how much. Let's get it going.

Overvalued/Undervalued Running Backs by VOA/ADP

To conduct this analysis objectively, I have made a simple calculation: VOA squared to ADP. We used the 2019 VOA+ and 2020 ADP values of each player as of this writing. Those with higher values would carry the best value/price, and those with the lowest the worst value. Imagine two players with a VOA+ of 200 going 1st overall and 100th overall. You'd definitely want the second one (same production, 100 picks cheaper), and in fact, his value would be much higher (200^100 against 200^1) than that of the first player.

First of all, here is how both VOA+ and ADP compare for players at the running back position.

Of the 153 running backs to appear in my data set, there were just 21 with above-average productions in 2019. To reach 24 and complete what would be a full crop of starters in a standard 12-team league we'd need to include Marlon Mack (96 VOA+), Melvin Gordon (95), and David Montgomery (90). You read that right. Three players were below-average, not below-starter level. If I had used my VOS metric (Value Over Starter) instead of VOA (Value Over Average), just nine RBs would have posted VOS+ marks over 100, which mean 15 (!) players at the position would have started at the position all year without reaching the average level of the starting running backs in most leagues. This goes to show that if you were to start the same player all year at RB, you would frequently be let down.

Can we just skip Christian McCaffrey? Pay whatever you need to get this man in your team. He won't replicate his impossible 471 PPR points or 256 VOA+, but he will be a monster in 2020 no matter what. Make him your no. 1 target. That's it.

2020 Super-Early-Round Running Backs

Now let's focus on more realistic endeavors. There is a clear glut of running backs getting drafted inside the first two rounds of drafts, but the differences in 2019 production are staggering.

Up to 12 players (including CMC) have an ADP under 20.8 (Derrick Henry) right now. Of those, only four (Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, and Dalvin Cook) had VOA+ marks over 150 in 2019 and thus are pretty much worth their price if they can keep those levels up.

Most fantasy owners are betting hard on a bounceback season from a 2019-banged up Saquon Barkley, drafting him super early as his 2.5 ADP shows. Truth be told, he's one of only 10 players to reach a 129+ VOA+ last season and he missed three full games while not playing at 100% in some others. The production will definitely be there, but the price might be a tad too high these days.

Josh Jacobs' production (101 VOA+) and ADP (17.4) make little sense considering other options available at the same or cheaper prices. Whoever is drafting Melvin Gordon inside the first two rounds is just insane in my opinion, as not only did he played to below-average levels at the position but he's also moved to a team that already features a go-to rusher in Phillip Lindsay (who, by the way, posted a 104 VOA+ in 2019 even sharing the backfield on a virtual 50/50 split with Royce Freeman).

Another player to split duties last season and somehow produce incredible numbers: Aaron Jones. The Packer lost more than a few touches to Jamaal Williams but he still was able to finish the year with a great 168 VOA+, good for second-best only bested by CMC. He currently has a 20.3 ADP. Somebody, please explain this to me. Oh, and in the meantime, go draft him asap!

2020 Early-Round Running Backs

Another 12 running backs are getting off the board in the third-to-fifth-round clip and again there are some mindboggling things happening with those picks:

Five of the 12 players played to below-average levels in 2019 and only Montgomery and Mack were top-24 RBs last season. There are--mostly--no excuses for those players and their paltry productions. Of them, just Kerryon Johnson and James Conner played fewer than 12 games on the year so their low VOA+ marks are understandable. Not so much for the rest...

I didn't think Austin Ekeler was going to be a surprise for anyone in 2020... yet it looks like he's still going a little bit under the radar and some fantasy owners have yet to catch up to his exploits. Not only is Ekeler the new go-to rusher of the Chargers (they waved goodbye to Melvin Gordon), but he also was the fourth-best rusher in 2019, logged a 168 VOA+, and is now getting drafted inside the fifth (!) round with a 49.5 ADP. Jump. On. Ekeler.

Another similar case: Mark Ingram. It is going to be hard for him to put another great season as he had in 2019 but his price (49.8 ADP) and production (128 VOA+) speak volumes of his upside for such a cheap investment.

2020 Mid-Round Running Backs

Had I to give them a label, I'd say that rounds six and seven are those of the what-ifs and high hopes on potential production. Just look at some names out there:

Kareem Hunt and Derrius Guice played eight and five games respectively. Their production-levels were mediocre at best (53 and 30 VOA+), even when factored in the low number of games they were part of...

...while James White and Kenyan Drake are currently boasting lower ADPs (85.8 and 67.3 respectively) and have much higher floors. Both of them played 14+ games, will keep doing so (barring injury) and already logged productions above average in 2019.

Top Targets and Avoids for 2020 by VOA+

Finally, here are the top-3 players to target and to avoid at the running back position given their VOA+ marks from 2019 and their current ADPs:

• Top-3 RBs to Target: Austin Ekeler, Mark Ingram, Aaron Jones
• Top-3 RBs to Avoid: David Montgomery, Sony Michel, James Conner

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