July 28, 2016

Bill Dubiel and Ben Ruppert compare DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry to declare which player is worth targeting as a better value fantasy football draft pick for 2016.

It's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy football drafts, and RotoBaller is here to help. In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

This article comes from RotoBaller's lead columnist Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) and featured writer Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21). Bill will defend DeVante Parker and his prospectsas a high-upside touchdown threat, while Ben extols the virtues of perennial PPR darling Jarvis Landry, who should once again do most of his damage on short routes and high volume. Feel free to reach out to either or both with questions or opinions.

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DeVante Parker (WR, MIA) - Bill Dubiel

The Dolphins drafted Parker in the first round in 2015 despite his coming off of a foot surgery, and it was easy to see why. The Louisville product was a truly elite collegiate talent, posting absurd yards-per-catch numbers (17.8 average in college) and thriving in the end zone (0.78 TD/game). His 6'3", 218-lb frame is exactly what one looks for in a deep threat--his dimensions are very similar to Julio Jones'. That 36.5-inch vertical certainly doesn't hurt either:

Predictably, Parker wasn't ready to leap right into NFL action, and saw only eight targets through his first eight games. He wasn't active for all of those games either. However, from Week 12-on, Parker showed what he can do for a team lacking an effective deep threat (sorry Kenny Stills). His coming-out party was an away tilt against the Jets, where Parker hauled in four of 10 targets for 80 yards and his first NFL touchdown. He followed that up with a three-catch, 63-yard game against the Ravens that included the highlight-reel touchdown catch above. Parker continued to make an impact for the rest of the season, posting a 22-445-3 line in Weeks 12-17.

Let's have some fun with numbers. If you take the averages from those six weeks, you get (roughly) four catches per game, 75 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Project that out across 16 games, and you're looking at a line of 64-1,200-8. Anybody interested in that?  My arm just shot out of its socket.

The catch total may even be a bit conservative. While Jarvis Landry will undoubtedly still see the lion's share of the targets, Parker could very well wind up with 75-80 if he becomes a little more efficient with the passes thrown his way. He only caught 50% of his targets over those four weeks, and that number should go up in his second season. Parker has excellent hands and should refine his game a bit more as time wears on.

In comparison to Jarvis Landry, Parker obviously has much more touchdown upside than the slot receiver. In PPR formats Landry has the edge, but I'm concerned that his target share will go down. Arian Foster is now a Dolphin, and it's no secret that a bunch of the damage that Foster does is through the air. The Dolphins will want to be more careful with Foster coming off a horrendous Achilles injury and getting up there in age, so I see them working him more as a pass-catcher than a between-the-tackles runner. Some of those quick slants will be going to Foster instead of Landry, and it's not like Landry is all of a sudden going to turn into a touchdown threat.

As of this writing, DeVante Parker is going as the 69th (giggity) player off the board, which puts him in the mid-late sixth round. Landry on the other hand is going 47th overall, which makes him an early-mid fourth round selection. I firmly believe Parker will outperform Landry overall in 2016, and I'll be happy to pass on Landry to take a lower-end running back in the fourth and snag Parker in the sixth.

Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA) - Ben Ruppert

Jarvis Landry proved to be a jack of all trades for the Miami Dolphins last season. On top of his stellar 110 catches (a Dolphins franchise record) for 1,157 yards and four TDs receiving stats, Landry was able to throw a nine-yard TD pass, rush for 113 yards on 18 attempts with a score, and was one of the highest rated return men in the game last season. Landry ranked second in the league in all-purpose yards at 1,947 behind only Antonio Brown. Landry should be treated as a top-15 fantasy receiving option this season.

The 5’11” 202 lb. Jarvis Landry is one of the top slot receivers in the game today. Not only does he occupy the slot, he has played all over the field. On a third of his 891 offensive snaps last season he lined up on the outside. He starts the game in the slot and the flow of the game dictates where he goes next. Landry is an excellent route runner, who is capable of making incredible catches with his strong hands, which has led to him catching more passes in his first two seasons (194) than anyone else in NFL history.

Ryan Tannehill has been the most sacked quarterback since 2012. In a division with the Bills and Jets this makes a ton of sense, and is the reason why Tannehill will see a ton of pressure next season as well. With a limited amount of time to pass, Landry will continue to get a ton of targets this season in the slot. Landry is excellent catching those quick screen passes; he ranked third best in yards after catch by receivers (behind Julio Jones and Antonio Brown) and forced 28 missed tackles last season, along with another 12 on carries, which was the most among all receivers.

Landry has proven himself to be a solid, borderline elite option at WR. His counterpart DeVante Parker oozes potential, but has yet to really prove that in the NFL. Landry has played two seasons in the NFL, playing full seasons each year while doing everything he does for Miami. DeVante Parker played one full college season out of four years, and only appeared in 14 games last season for the Dolphins, catching 26 passes. Long time Dolphins beat reporter Omar Kelly felt strongly that Landry is far and away the number one receiver in this offense, and went on to say Landry can get open in practice whenever he wants to, while Parker is having trouble with the Dolphin cornerbacks. Landry is the much more established and trusted option for Tannehill to throw to.

Not to mention, this offseason he has been training with his two buddies Odell Beckham, Jr. and Antonio Brown. All three of these guys have similar builds, so if Landry can pick up on what it is that makes them so massively effective in this league, the sky is the limit. Landry hasn’t even peaked in his career yet; he is the one who is ready to blow up next season in new head coach Adam Gase’s system. He is being drafted as the #23 receiver this season, and will be worth every penny you invest into him this season. I expect him to outperform this and finish as a top-15 option in standard leagues, and a top-five option in PPR formats.

 
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